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All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

wxhstn74

By wxhstn74,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

I know it is the NAM but if this is close to the truth, this could be one hell of a quick hitter and any sort of warm BL issues will be overcome with intense precip rates. I will have to look at BUFKIT but I can imagine that there is probably some convective instability in the soundings.

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

Meh, the 18z NAM is always garbage, as is the 18z GFS usually, so the 0z runs will rule the roost. I find it interesting the ECMWF ensembles closely match the 12z GFS, suggesting more of a S Wisconsin- C Lower Michigan event instead of N Illinois- S Lower Michigan event.

NAM could be narrow on the snow band too. The NMM run at 12z was good for your area, and even N IL. I guess the 0z run will have the final word.

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

Posted
Posted

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

309 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-INZ001-002-222315-

WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-

LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-LAKE IN-PORTER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...

WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...

OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...GARY...

VALPARAISO

309 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012

...ACCUMLATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND LIKELY THURSDAY

NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...

A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE

CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN

GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS

EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS THURSDAY

MORNING...CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CHANGE TO ALL SNOW

THURSDAY EVENING.

HOW FAST THIS TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW TAKES PLACE IS STILL

UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS THAT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS

POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 88 THURSDAY

AFTERNOON...THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATION SOUTH TO INTERSTATE 80 IS

ALSO POSSIBLE.

SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY

EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SEVERAL

INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH

ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

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SchaumburgStormer

SchaumburgStormer

Posted
Posted

LOT will probably have to host some headline with the NAM/ECM/UKMET all showing a decent wintery event.

Looks like they took the conservative route and went Special Weather Statement....

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

309 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-INZ001-002-222315-

WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-

LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-LAKE IN-PORTER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...

WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...

OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...GARY...

VALPARAISO

309 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012

...ACCUMLATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND LIKELY THURSDAY

NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...

A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE

CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN

GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS

EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS THURSDAY

MORNING...CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CHANGE TO ALL SNOW

THURSDAY EVENING.

HOW FAST THIS TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW TAKES PLACE IS STILL

UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS THAT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS

POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 88 THURSDAY

AFTERNOON...THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATION SOUTH TO INTERSTATE 80 IS

ALSO POSSIBLE.

SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY

EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SEVERAL

INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH

ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

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Thunder Road

Thunder Road

Posted
Posted

afternoon AFD from LOT

BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING...

ENOUGH COLDER AIR IS WRAPPING IN THAT THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD GO

OVER TO ALL SNOW AND IT IS THIS TIME PERIOD...FROM THURSDAY

EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND PERHAPS INTO FRIDAY

AFTERNOON...WHEN IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL

OCCUR AND IT MAY BE SEVERAL INCHES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT

DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS THURSDAY...DURING THE DAY...THAT THIS

WILL BE A SOLID ADVISORY EVENT...AND MAINLY 3RD/4TH PERIODS FOR

MUCH OF THE CWA...2ND PERIOD PERHAPS NORTH...THUS NOT CONFIDENT

ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT AS NOTED...WILL ISSUE

AN SPS SHORTLY.

Edit: Since several other people beat me to it, I'll just cut it back to the important part.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

309 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-INZ001-002-222315-

WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-

LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-LAKE IN-PORTER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...

WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...

OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...GARY...

VALPARAISO

309 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012

...ACCUMLATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND LIKELY THURSDAY

NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...

A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE

CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN

GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS

EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS THURSDAY

MORNING...CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CHANGE TO ALL SNOW

THURSDAY EVENING.

HOW FAST THIS TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW TAKES PLACE IS STILL

UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS THAT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS

POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 88 THURSDAY

AFTERNOON...THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATION SOUTH TO INTERSTATE 80 IS

ALSO POSSIBLE.

SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY

EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SEVERAL

INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH

ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

Sounds like they are thinking decent amounts. This SPS might mean that they're not issuing a watch yet though. We'll see.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

Meh, the 18z NAM is always garbage, as is the 18z GFS usually, so the 0z runs will rule the roost. I find it interesting the ECMWF ensembles closely match the 12z GFS, suggesting more of a S Wisconsin- C Lower Michigan event instead of N Illinois- S Lower Michigan event.

Making such a broad scale assessment of off hr runs is not a wise choice. While the NAM may be over-amped with precip totals, it isn't supposed to be taken verbatim. The 160 kt 300 hpa jet is already beginning to buckle across MT. Always need to be careful when dealing with low amplitude disturbances along the polar jet as amplification can happen quickly and unexpectedly with poorly handled low amplitude waves. Should be remembered that the off hr runs take in millions of observations including quite a bit of satellite data.

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

Revised watch for MKX:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

308 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012

...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND

EVENING...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN

WISCONSIN. A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE

OVERALL TREND TODAY HAS BEEN SOUTHWARD. LESS SNOW IS THUS EXPECTED

ACROSS THE NORTH...RESULTING IN A CANCELLATION OF THE WATCH FOR

COUNTIES NORTH OF MADISON AND MILWAUKEE.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE SNOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST

MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE TIMING MAY BE LATER

AS COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER.

WIZ056-062>064-067>072-230515-

/O.EXT.KMKX.WS.A.0003.120223T1600Z-120224T0800Z/

SAUK-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-

KENOSHA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARABOO...DODGEVILLE...MADISON...

JEFFERSON...LAKE MILLS...DARLINGTON...MONROE...JANESVILLE...

BELOIT...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA...RACINE...KENOSHA

308 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING

THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...SNOW MOVING IN MID OR LATE THURSDAY MORNING...WINDING

DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY UP TO 8

INCHES.

* WINDS...EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTH IN THE EVENING.

* IMPACTS...THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...RESULTING IN LOW

VISIBILITY AND SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADS. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY

LINGER INTO THE EVENING RUSH HOUR.

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Ajdos

Ajdos

Posted
Posted

You have to love GRR.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES SHOULD BE EASY TO DO WITH THIS

SET UP.

I WOULD HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS EVENT EXPECT FOR

THE ISSUE OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY. I WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT

CONSIDER DOING JUST THAT.

Usually it's the other way around! LOL

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

More ups and downs in this thread than a porno shoot. Tough one to forecast and get excited about with all the crap the models were pushing out..

Yeah this is one reason why I am not overly excited yet because there is still a decent range of solutions. However the potential for someone to cash in big time with the FGEN band is very high.

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Ajdos

Ajdos

Posted
Posted

000

FXUS63 KDTX 222107

AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

407 PM EST WED FEB 22 2012

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS WILL BECOME

MORE AMPLIFIED...DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AS A

STRONG JET ENTERS THE PACIFIC NW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM

DEVELOPING TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ROUND THE BASE OF

THE TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LEADING TO

ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MODELS GIVE QUITE THE SPECTRUM OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM MENTIONED

ABOVE. THE NAM HAS THE NORTHERN MOST TRACK WHICH TAKES THE SFC LOW

FROM MILWAUKEE TO FLINT. THIS TRACK IS WELL NORTH OF ALL OTHER

SOLUTIONS THUS WILL BE DISREGARDED. THE GFS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH

ON A LINE FROM CHICAGO TO DETROIT...BUT STILL NORTH OF THE

CONSENSUS. LEANING MUCH MORE TO THE UKMET/GEM REGIONAL AND TO SOME

EXTENT THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH JUMPS BACK ON BOARD AFTER GOING AWRY AT

00Z. GENERAL TRACK WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND OH WITH

INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME AS THE SYSTEM HEADS TO

THE EAST COAST. THERE ARE MANY FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR THIS STORM

TO PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF SE MI. FIRST OF ALL

THE TIMING OF THE EVENT...WITH THE INITIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING

LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MI AFTER 22Z THURSDAY. THE INITIAL PRECIP WILL

BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX UNTIL THE HEAVIER RATES MOVE IN CHANGING IT TO

ALL SNOW. THIS INITIAL BAND WILL SWEEP NORTHWARD DROPPING A FEW

QUICK INCHES AS WET BULBING SHOULD DROP TEMPS TO AROUND FREEZING.

LOOKS LIKE THE 850MB FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT UP TO SAGINAW BEFORE THE

BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. ON THAT

NOTE...MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER

20S...AND 850MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY EXCEEDING 3-4 G/KG WITH THE

INITIAL BAND. QPF SHOULD REACH 0.4-0.5 INCHES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY THE FRONT AND THETA E RIDGE WILL BE EAST OF THE ARE

AS THE LOW WILL BE CENTERED NEAR LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL THEN PIVOT THE

DEFORMATION BAND THROUGH THE AREA. WHERE EXACTLY IT SET UPS IS NOT

CERTAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT LOOKS LIKE LOCATIONS NORTH OF M59 HAVE THE

BEST CHANCE TO SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS. UPPER LEVELS

DYNAMICS WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE AS WELL. JET STREAK WILL INTENSIFY

THROUGHOUT THE EVENT PLACING US IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION.

IN ADDITION WE WILL BE IN THE REGION OF MID LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE DRY SLOT

WILL WORK INTO THE STATE...AND IF THIS HAPPENS HOW FAR THE WARM

SECTOR WILL MAKE IT NORTH...FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN WIDESPREAD

ACCUMULATING SNOW TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT.

ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH 6 INCHES OR MORE BY THE TIME THE SNOW ENDS

FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL COME ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM

TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN MI. THIS WILL DRAW UP WARM AIR RESULTING IN

A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

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dmc76

dmc76

Posted
Posted

More ups and downs in this thread than a porno shoot. Tough one to forecast and get excited about with all the crap the models were pushing out..

Just having fun following any storm with potential ...it's been pretty boring winter overall I'm going to milk this sucker for all it's worth even if I end up with 2"

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BowMeHunter

BowMeHunter

Posted
Posted

Just having fun following any storm with potential ...it's been pretty boring winter overall I'm going to milk this sucker for all it's worth even if I end up with 2"

No doubt.. I haven't missed a model run in days even though they showed basically nothing for here.

Its just been hard to show any excitement in the thread until now that the models are coming in to decent agreement for a nice hit for parts of mn/iowa/iilinois/ and mich. Seems though a lot of the events this w/e you want to call it season have started out looking pretty meh but have aged well closer to go time.

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