Pattern shifted in this first week of February as anticipated by Will and others...

[powderfreak]

I agree the pattern has changed, but whether it benefits New England with snow remains to be seen.... but this is some cold we have not seen yet this season. -30C nudging into NNE and -20C down to the SNE coastline!

[Typhoon Tip]

0z ECM holding onto the idea of a large warm-up at Day 9/10.

You really should not trust any ECM -based product in that time frame. That's true any time of the year, ...but, is particularly true now, as the last 30 to 45 days of validation scores have put the Euro under other relying guidance sources.

That, and... if anyone has been paying attention you'll note that every changes the orientation of signficant mass field entities too much to be believable (limited continuity), where any "warm" appeal is coincidently related between respective run times.

Then it verifies cold anyway... Bad Euro. You're naughty -

[CoastalWx]

You really should not trust any ECM -based product in that time frame. That's true any time of the year, ...but, is particularly true now, as the last 30 to 45 days of validation scores have put the Euro under other relying guidance sources.

That, and... if anyone has been paying attention you'll note that every changes the orientation of signficant mass field entities too much to be believable (limited continuity), where any "warm" appeal is coincidently related between respective run times.

Then it verifies cold anyway... Bad Euro. You're naughty -

You shouldn't trust any model at the timeframe..lol. I honestly think people almost should not look at op runs past day 6 and 7. There is just so much turmoil and chaos right now. Ensembles are the way to go. Also, I'm seeing the euro verify better lately per stats at day 6. Day 8 is a toss up. The 12z GFS at day 8 is verifiying slightly better at H5, if you believe the stats.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

[Typhoon Tip]

There are 3 systems that should be watched spanning the next 10 days.

One is a weak Miller B/NJ model low at 40-50 hours. This could trend N at the last minute and clip southern zones. Low probability.

The next is in 4 or 5 days; the recently less reliable Euro has a light/moderate event as N. stream dynamics drill a powerful vort max under SNE. As is, the run appeals as too little too late, but not before intrinsic frontogenic forcing in the 850 700mb levels does at least layout a band of snow. The GFS has the embedded stream dynamics ...just opts to not work with it. Suspect the Euro is at error here for no other reason than it verificaiton scores have slipped recently in this time range, but we'll see. Low probability.

That last is right around D9 or 10, and it has to do with this on-off Miller A thing. This is the better of the 3 in my estimation because finally... the SPV relaxes and trundles out of Canada.. This heralds the potential for more southern stream in an overall more relaxed, better cyclogenesis field. Low to moderate probability.

[Typhoon Tip]

You shouldn't trust any model at the timeframe..lol. I honestly think people almost should not look at op runs past day 6 and 7. There is just so much turmoil and chaos right now. Ensembles are the way to go. Also, I'm seeing the euro verify better lately per stats at day 6. Day 8 is a toss up. The 12z GFS at day 8 is verifiying slightly better at H5, if you believe the stats.

http://www.emc.ncep....gmb/STATS_vsdb/

Ha ha, yep! I'm tired of going through for good info and instead getting endless opines about D9 features. Ugh. If the teleconnectors are overwhelming, which they currenlty are not - only suggestive, sure. But suggestive leaves room for a lot of different ideas.

That said ...not to be a hypocrite... I do think the Miller Aness type thing out there in time is interesting.

[CoastalWx]

Ha ha, yep! I'm tired of going through for good info and instead getting endless opines about D9 features. Ugh. If the teleconnectors are overwhelming, which they currenlty are not - only suggestive, sure. But suggestive leaves room for a lot of different ideas.

That said ...not to be a hypocrite... I do think the Miller Aness type thing out there in time is interesting.

I agree with your thoughts regarding those deals. There was also something in the day 7-8 deal that was showing up. As interesting as I thought the EC ensembles and GFS op looked last night, just one small detail in error, and it will disappear.

Overall the pattern is pretty blah, but like I said to Phil in the other thread..I'll always keep my eye out, because good timing can sometimes surprise.

[Typhoon Tip]

NCEP weekly MJO address mentions the potential activation of more southern stream, as well...

　

For the U.S., upcoming forecast phases of the MJO favor a tendency for stronger jet streams to develop and one consequence of this may be higher chances for above-average precipitation across some areas of the southern tier of the U.S., not typical during La Nina.

[Typhoon Tip]

This entire season has been an exercise in futility it seems. I'm really kind of fascinated how we have not correlated a single pattern to the teleconnectors yet this year - that more than seems physically impossible, yet it's taking place.

The MJO does yet to register on the model products, both ensemble or operational across the board. The idea of not have a La Nina pattern this year, either...it's all in the same eerie anticorrelations winning the battle at every turn. Wow.

That said, the overnight cold/stormy teleconnectors came unraveled. The AO is now over 0.0 SD heading into the 20th of the month... Given to the fact that ANY positive AO has meant +7F type departures so far this year, and considering there is no reason to assume that trend would not continue, should that happen while this apparent newly -PNA arrives, does anyone "sense" or think an early spring is impossible.

Frankly, this has been one extended Autumn in my book and it always has.

The 00z Euro persisted with a close call ...now at 96 hours off that run, with enough substantive RH at the respective levels combined with V-max track to suggest at least some light snow nonetheless. We'll see if that gets destroyed like all others this year, too. Interesting.

But, we've just passed through 2 solid weeks -AO/+PNA/ ...along with an interlude of -EPO, and have nothing to show for it in the winter column. wow. That's pretty amazing in its self.

[CoastalWx]

Depending on hos the block forms, I'd watch for something in the d8-10 time frame trying to squueze under SNE, or move over the area. The GFS and Canadian hint at that for the brief time we actually get a block to our north. Not trying to stress anything more than that, but it's been hinted at.

[Typhoon Tip]

Depending on hos the block forms, I'd watch for something in the d8-10 time frame trying to squueze under SNE, or move over the area. The GFS and Canadian hint at that for the brief time we actually get a block to our north. Not trying to stress anything more than that, but it's been hinted at.

yeah, ...again, it's been an exercise in identifying plausibilities and then watching them dismantle. Got see one of these happen, now -

[CoastalWx]

Canadian ensembles are real weenie-ish next week. They force a big -NAO block and have like 2-3 coastals through d12..lol.

[CoastalWx]

With any luck, the euro ensembles may be doing the same.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro ensembles have a low near the BM next Wednesday...its not that cold, but it only needs to be cold enough to snow which it is. If that PV can force a temporary NAO block, then we could get something like that to slide south of us.

[CoastalWx]

Euro ensembles have a low near the BM next Wednesday...its not that cold, but it only needs to be cold enough to snow which it is. If that PV can force a temporary NAO block, then we could get something like that to slide south of us.

Look what it does with the low after. It tries to force that overhead, instead of west of us. Man, just once it would be nice for something to break right for us.

[Damage In Tolland]

Where is the vaunted torch next week? It's gone..Why you ask..because MJO is moving 8-1-2..FTW

[CoastalWx]

Where is the vaunted torch next week? It's gone..Why you ask..because MJO is moving 8-1-2..FTW

No not really. If the block doesn't happen, then we torch. This isn't MJO stuff.

[CoastalWx]

You can see what a little blocking can do, and goes back to what I mentioned 10 or so days ago. While it may be an overall pattern, any little height change over the PAC and to our north can mean the difference between a front near NYC and PWM. Whether it happens, too early to say...but it's these little nuances that have a larger outcome to sensible wx in these latitudes.

[N. OF PIKE]

the SNE winter motto should be

"please help......shoot me now"

[Damage In Tolland]

No not really. If the block doesn't happen, then we torch. This isn't MJO stuff.

Don't agree..if the MJO hadn't progressed we wouldn;t even have the chance for a wintry week..it all goes hand in hand

[CoastalWx]

Don't agree..if the MJO hadn't progressed we wouldn;t even have the chance for a wintry week..it all goes hand in hand

You're saying two different things. If we somehow get some sort of wintry event next week, I don't think you can directly attach it to the MJO, especially if a rapidly developing low can throw a temporary ridge into Greenland. You have to be careful with that term, there are many other things besdies the MJO. If you want to say that those phases work to help reduce torching in the east, then you are right with that. It still will be an above normal week overall, especially during days that are sunny. No snowpack equals warmer temps.

[Tropopause_Fold]

You can see what a little blocking can do, and goes back to what I mentioned 10 or so days ago. While it may be an overall pattern, any little height change over the PAC and to our north can mean the difference between a front near NYC and PWM. Whether it happens, too early to say...but it's these little nuances that have a larger outcome to sensible wx in these latitudes.

kind of goes back to how the weeklies have looked. torches at 850 but some semblance of higher heights up near the DS region. makes a world of difference to have a little confluent flow to our NE and a bit of a roadblock.

[CoastalWx]

kind of goes back to how the weeklies have looked. torches at 850 but some semblance of higher heights up near the DS region. makes a world of difference to have a little confluent flow to our NE and a bit of a roadblock.

I wish it were colder, because 534 thicknesses can be garbage.

[Damage In Tolland]

You're saying two different things. If we somehow get some sort of wintry event next week, I don't think you can directly attach it to the MJO, especially if a rapidly developing low can throw a temporary ridge into Greenland. You have to be careful with that term, there are many other things besdies the MJO. If you want to say that those phases work to help reduce torching in the east, then you are right with that. It still will be an above normal week overall, especially during days that are sunny. No snowpack equals warmer temps.

Wll with the couple inches we get Saturday that shouldn't be an issue as much as it's been

[CoastalWx]

Wll with the couple inches we get Saturday that shouldn't be an issue as much as it's been

If we get that, it will be fluff and vaporize quicker than Ray's undies at a chinese restaurant.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I wish it were colder, because 534 thicknesses can be garbage.

at least (?) we are getting to the time of year when you can have those high thickness events materialize a bit better. but overall, yeah i know what you mean.

[CoastalWx]

at least (?) we are getting to the time of year when you can have those high thickness events materialize a bit better. but overall, yeah i know what you mean.

Yeah I no beggars can't be choosers, but 534 thicknesses that are preceded by sw winds that drag in PAC taint or air from the Plains, sucks for lower elevations usually.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yeah I no beggars can't be choosers, but 534 thicknesses that are preceded by sw winds that drag in PAC taint or air from the Plains, sucks for lower elevations usually.

n of the pike specials?

the gfs ensembles had that same look...flirting with 540 thicknesses and LPs running over SNE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

If we get that, it will be fluff and vaporize quicker than Ray's undies at a chinese restaurant.

lol

[dendrite]

Congrats dendrite on the d9-10 Euro.

[mahk_webstah]

Congrats dendrite on the d9-10 Euro.

I've heard that way too many times this year...7-10 days in advance.

But let me be the first to say that I think you deserve to get the jackpot. You are a fantastic human being and I would be more than thrilled if you jackpotted! Go Dendrite!