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Gauging GLOVers on how the rest of the winter plays out


snowstormcanuck

Gauging the mood  

59 members have voted

  1. 1. What are your thoughts about how the rest of 2011-12 plays out?

    • Absolutely certain a decent lengthed period of widespread cold, snowy weather will develop
    • A decent lengthed period of widespread cold, snowy weather is likely
    • Uncertain/don't care
    • A decent lengthed period of widespread cold, snowy weather is unlikely
    • There will be no decent lengthed period of widespread cold, snowy weather. Winter is over.


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Toronto will continue to be winter storm free, that's for certain.

Detroit will continue to nickel and dime itself to a winter of roughly 30"-40", getting a WWA between February 20th and March 20th.

Likely, but nothing is a certitude. In fact, that's the only thing keeping me going. Even 2001-02 had the Jan 31 storm.

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The 12z Euro opens the door for spring 216-240 hours out.

Cold to the north, warm to the south, and to top that a spring like storm too.

As for the poll.....I think there will be atleast a few days where the pattern resembles a true Winter like pattern but thats about it....maybe no more than 5 days.

Something like 10" down at Pearson, we'll be lucky to get 12" let alone another 10" to prevent another record low. how f*king sad.

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The 12z Euro opens the door for spring 216-240 hours out.

Cold to the north, warm to the south, and to top that a spring like storm too.

As for the poll.....I think there will be atleast a few days where the pattern resembles a true Winter like pattern but thats about it....maybe no more than 5 days.

Something like 10" down at Pearson, we'll be lucky to get 12" let alone another 10" to prevent another record low. how f*king sad.

EURO has been erratic. Two runs ago it was trying to trop the PV into Quebec in the D8-10 range. I think what's telling is the lack of wavering by the EURO ensembles. Given it's accuracy this winter, that's sufficient for me to discard any potential mid February "pattern change" safely in the garbage bin.

I agree with your third paragraph. We'll have shots of cold, and hopefully some snow, but anything sustained is not in the cards.

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Winter's over... At the most ~5 more inches for cities like MKE, DTW, ORD

Sub 20 inch for DTW would be a significant achievement. Many people will debate the likelynes of such a milestone. Odds are stacked against it. More in line for a sub 25 or 30 inch winter. This pattern is locked in.

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This crummy pattern sure is locked in. It will probably end just as Spring comes too...and then it will be too warm for snow and we'll have three more months of the same crap. I've been trying to stay positive, and then it get a little bit excited when I look at an extended run just for it to end up warm again. boooooooring

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Oh, regarding this pattern flipping in spring, I've already seen a couple long range outlooks indicating warmer than average. Be afraid.

And we've all seen EVERY long range outlook back in October forecasting a season with widespread above average snowfall in the midwest.

In any event, if we get a winter storm then great, if we don't and get an 80*F torch with severe weather in March followed by heavy snow then that's even better (like in 2007). If neither of those happen and we're stuck in lake stratus with temps in the 30s then I might jump off the Penobscot building.

Bottom line, I really don't care about this point. If nothing appreciable happens by the 22nd then it's whatever (bomb/crippling snow dump notwithstanding)...

Likely, but nothing is a certitude. In fact, that's the only thing keeping me going. Even 2001-02 had the Jan 31 storm.

I'll give myself a 0.2% chance of being wrong with regard to Toronto remaining winter storm free.

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And we've all seen EVERY long range outlook back in October forecasting a season with widespread above average snowfall in the midwest.

In any event, if we get a winter storm then great, if we don't and get an 80*F torch with severe weather in March followed by heavy snow then that's even better (like in 2007). If neither of those happen and we're stuck in lake stratus with temps in the 30s then I might jump off the Penobscot building.

Bottom line, I really don't care about this point. If nothing appreciable happens by the 22nd then it's whatever (bomb/crippling snow dump notwithstanding)...

I'll give myself a 0.2% chance of being wrong with regard to Toronto remaining winter storm free.

I'm not too up on the chances either just based on the pattern but there's no real way to ascertain what a given storm will be doing say a month from now. That's why I can't say for certain it won't happen.

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I'm just disappointed because this is a La Nina winter. I always say I'd rather have a Nina than a Nino since a Nina usually has a cold Canada. Not this time I guess. lol Next year will probably be a classic warm and dry Nino winter. Wouldn't that be a kick in the nuts?

It's 1998-99 without the good times. We were joking about it in the fall. It has become our reality.

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I voted 4, though cold and snowy aren't mutually exclusive. We could have a week or 2 of snow and it be near normal. Though honestly I am a cross between 3/4.

I know. That's why I've combined them. ;)

Seriously though, I get what you mean. I didn't want to create 8-10 choices though. Maybe I should have used more generic phraseology, like "wintry".

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Yeah, but the tables have turned. He was one of the few touting a slow winter weather season, and now that it's looking to come to fruition, he's trying to come to the aid of his pocketbook. :whistle:

He posted that before i even voted and I don't understand the ending to your post much.

I'll be stunned if we don't get another period like in janauary where things are decent and we avg below normal temps and above average snow for a couple weeks. Naso so positive about the widespread the wealth snow's though. Could be congrats La Crosse but i'm leaning more towards the eastern lakes and even OV.

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He posted that before i even voted and I don't understand the ending to your post much.

I'll be stunned if we don't get another period like in janauary where things are decent and we avg below normal temps and above average snow for a couple weeks. Naso so positive about the widespread the wealth snow's though. Could be congrats La Crosse but i'm leaning more towards the eastern lakes and even OV.

Think LAF and TOR snow.

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I'm on the optimistic side and will go with a decent period of snowy, colder weather. Colder meaning near normal and snowy meaning another 10" of snow. I think ORD and MKE will both be 25"+ for the seasonal total (including March). I tend to throw March in as winter, because it usually is like winter around here! lol

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