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Revisiting the 2011 Ground Hogs Day Blizzard!


SpartyOn

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Widespread 30 to 40 inches of snow would have fallen.

That might be overstating it some since liquid equivalents generally didn't exceed 1.5" with most areas having less. Even taking a rather robust 20:1 ratio to that would only yield 30". The ratio issue is one of those things that will forever go unanswered but my gut feeling if winds would've been "average" is that we would've seen a much longer band of 24+ (instead of smaller bands/pockets) with maybe a few spots approaching 3 feet.

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I took a lot of pictures at the time, but the only one I can find is this one of some huge snowflakes (if you can make them out) falling with the first wave of snow/sleet around 3 p.m. Jan. 31.

post-7645-0-70133200-1328149921.jpg

Ended up with 5.5" of snow and sleet (about 4.0" of sleet) IMBY which melted to 1.53" of liquid. Ugh, sleet.

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Things got real in southern Ontario when Environment Canada issued it's first blizzard warning since the Storm of the Century in 1993...as they mentioned in the warning text...which really set off a media frenzy here. Municipal governments across the board issued snow emergencies, schools closed, cities shut down, people panicked and flooded the shops, etc.

They were only calling for 8-12" with locally higher amounts in the winter storm and blizzard warning warning...but I feel like The Weather Network was forecasting around 16"+ here. Can any Ontario posters remember?

I have no recollection of this storm...not a single memory. But here are some snow totals from the EC storm summary...apparently I received 6".

WINDSOR AIRPORT -- 8.7

LONDON AIRPORT -- 7.5

SARNIA -- 8.0

THORNBURY -- 12.0

HAMILTON (WEST MOUNTAIN) -- 11.0

KITCHENER/WATERLOO -- 6.0

BALACLAVA (NE OF OWEN SOUND) -- 13.0

KINCARDINE -- 12.6

ORILLIA -- 7.5

TORONTO -- 5.1-7.5

CORNWALL -- 12.0

OTTAWA AIRPORT -- 6.0

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Things got real in southern Ontario when Environment Canada issued it's first blizzard warning since the Storm of the Century in 1993...as they mentioned in the warning text...which really set off a media frenzy here. Municipal governments across the board issued snow emergencies, schools closed, cities shut down, people panicked and flooded the shops, etc.

They were only calling for 8-12" with locally higher amounts in the winter storm and blizzard warning warning...but I feel like The Weather Network was forecasting around 16"+ here. Can any Ontario posters remember?

I have no recollection of this storm...not a single memory. But here are some snow totals from the EC storm summary...apparently I received 6".

WINDSOR AIRPORT 8.7

LONDON AIRPORT 7.5

SARNIA 8.0

THORNBURY 12.0

HAMILTON (WEST MOUNTAIN) 11.0

KITCHENER/WATERLOO 6.0

BALACLAVA (NE OF OWEN SOUND) 13.0

KINCARDINE 12.6

ORILLIA 7.5

TORONTO 5.1-7.5

CORNWALL 12.0

OTTAWA AIRPORT 6.0

Those darn Ice crystals ruined everything and that sudden NW Shift plus the dry slot afterwards.

If that shift didnt happen and those crystals were normal we could have gotten 12+" before the dry slot. The qpf was really heavy.

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Things got real in southern Ontario when Environment Canada issued it's first blizzard warning since the Storm of the Century in 1993...as they mentioned in the warning text...which really set off a media frenzy here. Municipal governments across the board issued snow emergencies, schools closed, cities shut down, people panicked and flooded the shops, etc.

They were only calling for 8-12" with locally higher amounts in the winter storm and blizzard warning warning...but I feel like The Weather Network was forecasting around 16"+ here. Can any Ontario posters remember?

I have no recollection of this storm...not a single memory. But here are some snow totals from the EC storm summary...apparently I received 6".

WINDSOR AIRPORT -- 8.7

LONDON AIRPORT -- 7.5

SARNIA -- 8.0

THORNBURY -- 12.0

HAMILTON (WEST MOUNTAIN) -- 11.0

KITCHENER/WATERLOO -- 6.0

BALACLAVA (NE OF OWEN SOUND) -- 13.0

KINCARDINE -- 12.6

ORILLIA -- 7.5

TORONTO -- 5.1-7.5

CORNWALL -- 12.0

OTTAWA AIRPORT -- 6.0

I think TWN was calling for 12-16" across southern Ontario. Not sure if they ever mentioned 16"+ as a possibility.

Weren't there Blizzard Warnings with the Jan. 1999 storm?

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I think TWN was calling for 12-16" across southern Ontario. Not sure if they ever mentioned 16"+ as a possibility.

Weren't there Blizzard Warnings with the Jan. 1999 storm?

Maybe. Just going by what it said in the warning text. Hard to think 5 1/2 counties along the 401/QEW corridor could be considered "widespread" if this is the case. Unless a possible 1999 blizzard warning was even smaller. But, I'm just being picky.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR:
=NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON
=NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX
=NEW= OXFORD - BRANT
=NEW= ST. CATHARINES - GRIMSBY - NORTHERN NIAGARA REGION
=NEW= CITY OF HAMILTON.

 BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
 KM/H WILL ACCOMPANY THE SNOW, CREATING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

 NOTE THAT THE BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA FOR ONTARIO WAS
 CHANGED JUNE 2010 TO REMOVE COLD WIND CHILL REQUIREMENTS. THE
 NEW CRITERIA REQUIRES A VISIBILITY OF 400 METRES OR LESS IN
 SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ACCOMPANIED BY SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF
 40 KM/H FOR AT LEAST FOUR HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN MORE
 BLIZZARD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED IN THE FUTURE.

 THIS IS THE FIRST WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD WARNING FOR SOUTHERN
 ONTARIO SINCE MARCH 1993, DURING THE 'STORM OF THE CENTURY'.

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The storm would have resembled a Nor-easter! With the typical high amounts you see from NJ to Maine.

The storm was incredibly dynamic, I can only imagine if did take an east coast track with more moisture inflow. Scary to think...

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Definitely a stark contrast tonight compared to one year ago at this time. At this time last year some of the heaviest bands and associated gravity waves were moving through with 2-3"/hr rates. Right around this time is when Clinton Iowa (about 20miles northwest of here) hit 66mph. As I look outside right now the ground is completely bare with dense fog settling in. So I guess that's one thing in common, the very low visibility lol. :tomato:

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Those darn Ice crystals ruined everything and that sudden NW Shift plus the dry slot afterwards.

If that shift didnt happen and those crystals were normal we could have gotten 12+" before the dry slot. The qpf was really heavy.

I'm not sure what you're referring to by "ice crystals". The dry slot was the main culprit.

And QPF wasn't heavy at all. A smidge more than 0.50" here and most spots in Toronto. 40-50% of what models were forecasting.

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That might be overstating it some since liquid equivalents generally didn't exceed 1.5" with most areas having less. Even taking a rather robust 20:1 ratio to that would only yield 30". The ratio issue is one of those things that will forever go unanswered but my gut feeling if winds would've been "average" is that we would've seen a much longer band of 24+ (instead of smaller bands/pockets) with maybe a few spots approaching 3 feet.

Even here on the East Coast it is hard to produce those kinds of totals without a stall and capture of the low pressure. Our ratios are usually in the same ballpark here due to warm advection aloft and wind. What helps is having the Atlantic in such close proximity, a ready supply of moisture for when storms do slow down.

The Groundhog Day blizzard represents what I believe to be a sort of limit to the amount of snowfall you can recieve from large low pressure (without the storm stalling and wringing itself out). Since the majority of the moisture has to come all the way from the Gulf, it is that much more difficult to sustain the heavy snowfall until it reaches the Atlantic Seaboard.

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MDW goes out with a bang, from 8:00AM to 11:00AM a year ago today.

METAR KMDW 021451Z 33021G29KT 1/16SM R31C/1000FT +SN BLSN VV002 M07/M09 A3001 RMK AO2 PK WND 32029/1446 PRESRR SLP179 SNINCR 1/19 P0000 60000 T10721094 53066 $

METAR KMDW 021551Z 33020G27KT 1/4SM R31C/1600FT +SN BLSN VV002 M07/M10 A3006 RMK AO2 PK WND 33029/1536 SLP196 SNICR 2/21 P0000 T10721100 $

METAR KMDW 021651Z 33018G26KT 3SM BLSN BKN009 OVC016 M07/M11 A3011 RMK AO2 PK WND 34026/1644 SNE51 SLP214 SNINCR 1/22 P0001 T10671106 $

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I'm not sure what you're referring to by "ice crystals". The dry slot was the main culprit.

And QPF wasn't heavy at all. A smidge more than 0.50" here and most spots in Toronto. 40-50% of what models were forecasting.

I heard alot of mets claiming that the ice crystals were the main culprit besides the dry slot as it didnt accumlate as orginally forecasted. I believe it was the weight of the ice crystals.

Either way if it werent for the said points above, we would have gotten atleast 8-12" of snow. I still managed to measure 8" however so not bad.

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I heard alot of mets claiming that the ice crystals were the main culprit besides the dry slot as it didnt accumlate as orginally forecasted. I believe it was the weight of the ice crystals.

Either way if it werent for the said points above, we would have gotten atleast 8-12" of snow. I still managed to measure 8" however so not bad.

By "ice crystals" I guess you mean needle like snowflakes? Sometimes colloquially referred to as "diamond/pixie dust"? I've never heard ice crystals being used to describe any precipitation at this latitude. Usually ice crystals mean limited water vapor that freezes suspended in mid-air in extremely cold air (you often see "ice crystals" being reported in the arctic with sfc temps around -30c). But maybe they're all interchangeable terms, I don't know.

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By "ice crystals" I guess you mean needle like snowflakes? Sometimes colloquially referred to as "diamond/pixie dust"? I've never heard ice crystals being used to describe any precipitation at this latitude. Usually ice crystals mean limited water vapor that freezes suspended in mid-air in extremely cold air (you often see "ice crystals" being reported in the arctic with sfc temps around -30c). But maybe they're all interchangeable terms, I don't know.

Yeah snowflakes but across the atmopshere they would be ice crystals woudn't they since the water vapor particles are like ice.

I believe there dependant on temperatures both across the sfc and the atmosphere. Again remember sfc temps during the height of the storm were around -10C to -14C or 14F to 7F with upper air temps around -15C to -20C or 5F to -4F.

The water vapor loop for that storm looked beautiful. The dry slot afterwards ruined everything and that sudden NW shift.

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Yeah snowflakes but across the atmopshere they would be ice crystals woudn't they since the water vapor particles are like ice.

I believe there dependant on temperatures both across the sfc and the atmosphere. Again remember sfc temps during the height of the storm were around -10C to -14C or 14F to 7F with upper air temps around -15C to -20C or 5F to -4F.

The water vapor loop for that storm looked beautiful. The dry slot afterwards ruined everything and that sudden NW shift.

Crystal growth is determined by the saturation and temperature where growth is occurring.

morphologydiagram.jpg

The 02/00z and 02/12z soundings from Buffalo and Maniwaki had temperatures in the max lift layer between -5 and 0 C and -15 and -10 C respectively. So splitting that difference -10 to -5 C, there was probably a good amount needles and columns mixing in. The Quad Cities did get close to the dry slot and that very much seemed what our snow growth was like, so probably comparable in your case.

And yes it is an issue of semantics. They are all ice crystals, but you both are correct as you can see that at extremely cold temperatures you can also get columns and needles. At extremely cold temperatures they are more likely to spontaneously form because of the lesser capacity to hold moisture. This is why you can boil water (weakening the bonds) and toss it in the air at temperatures below -30 C and watch it skip the vapor stage and go straight to ice.

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