January 26-27th System

[DaculaWeather]

Atlanta NWS seems to be more than a little concerned about this next round.

"EITHER WAY...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD POTENTIAL ARE SIGNIFICANT AND WORTHY OF ATTENTION."

"THE THREAT OF TORNADOES...STRONG WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THIS EVENT IN AND AROUND METRO ATLANTA AND POINTS SOUTH. ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE TO REPEAT OUR PATTERN FOR QLCS ACTIVITY...WHICH HAS PROVEN TO BE POTENT AT PRODUCING TORNADOES IN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA."

The UL seems to be getting it's act together this morning and is already closed.

[NavarreDon]

Nasty Weather in Texas this am!

Tornado Warning

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

818 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

TXC185-225-313-339-471-251445-

/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-120125T1445Z/

GRIMES TX-HOUSTON TX-MADISON TX-MONTGOMERY TX-WALKER TX-

818 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM CST FOR WALKER...

MONTGOMERY...MADISON...HOUSTON AND GRIMES COUNTIES...

AT 812 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF

RICHARDS...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HUNTSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT

35 MPH. A SECOND RADAR INDICATED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 12

MILES SOUTHEAST OF MADISONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATHS OF THESE TORNADOES INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT

LIMITED TO CRABBS PRAIRIE...HUNTSVILLE STATE PARK AND HUNTSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN THE INTERIOR HALLWAY OR

A ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING. USE

BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM

WINDOWS.

IF YOU ARE INSIDE A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...EVACUATE THEM

IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST

RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR

HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

[DaculaWeather]

I wonder how the next piece of energy coming in over the NW will effect the current low in the SW.

[FoothillsNC]

I think it will be much more stable north of the track of the closed low. It really depends on where the vort center tracks as we still have big uncertainty so its possible close to it and south, but north of the track very unlikely. Roughly I-20 , south would have the best shot. General stratiform deformation band type rain north of the track from northeast Texas to northern parts of Ms, Al, GA and the Carolinas (eastern and southern Carolinas possible severe).

[DaculaWeather]

From the SPC -

ALTHOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES EXIST WITH THE EWD

PROGRESSION OF THE TX LOW...THESE DIFFERENCES ARE NOT GREAT ENOUGH

TO PRECLUDE THE ERN EXTENSION OF THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THURSDAY

NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...WHICH NOW INCLUDES THE ATLANTA AND TALLAHASSEE

METRO AREAS.

[audioguy3107]

Interesting also b/c it seems like it takes a much more favorable setup for FFC to really get excited about severe weather. Seems they're a little more concerned with this possibility than others like it in the past. Heck, maybe they're bored with the lack of winter weather down here like the rest of us.

[Solak]

I've seen this a lot lately... from this afternoon's RAH AFD...

A SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE FORECAST

AREA...BUT THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS THAT WE COULD GET DRY-SLOTTED

FAIRLY EARLY INTO THE AREA...WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON QPF AMOUNTS

ACROSS CENTRAL NC.

[NavarreDon]

Great write up from BMX on this system for thier CWA.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

338 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012

.DISCUSSION...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF CONTINUES TO STREAM

INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HAS BEEN A LITTLE

QUICKER IN RETURNING THAN EXPECTED... AND COUPLED WITH

TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S... LOW LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE

DEVELOPED.

A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS HAS INDUCED A WEAK

SURFACE LOW TO FORM OVER THE GULF COAST OF TEXAS. A MCS WITH A

WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO THE LINEAR

FORCING OF THE COLD FRONT COMING IN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. BOTH

THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TONIGHT...

BRINGING CENTRAL ALABAMA RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. THE

CLOSED UPPER LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO CHANGE TO AN OPEN WAVE STARING

TONIGHT DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE

GREAT PLAINS.

LOOKING AT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES... FORECAST VALUES OF CAPE AND

SHEAR AS SIMPLY NOT AS HIGH/STRONG AS THE LAST SYSTEM... WHICH

TRANSLATES INTO JUST A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY FOR

CENTRAL ALABAMA. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... THE

RESULTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT SHOULD HELP

MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. FORECAST LAPSE RATES FROM

1000-700 MB ARE ALSO POOR... WHICH MEANS ANY STORMS THAT TRY TO

FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE MCS MAY STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP. SHEAR APPEARS

TO BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN ANY LINE OF STORMS... AND ASSOCIATED

WIND DAMAGE... COMING IN FROM MISSISSIPPI IN THE MORNING. IN

PARTICULAR... 850 AND 700 MB WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 KTS MAKE THEIR

WAY INTO THE AREA BY 15Z... AND STICK AROUND THROUGH 00Z. WESTERN

PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA MAY EXPERIENCE STORMS AS EARLY AS

15Z... BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE STORMS AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING

THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

THREE THINGS TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR TOMORROW WITH RESPECT TO

ISOLATED TORNADO CHANCES WILL BE THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE

SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW... AND ANY

BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF THE

LOW. BASED OFF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK... THE BEST CHANCE FOR

AN ISOLATED TORNADO... WHILE STILL LOW... APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF

I-20. THIS IS WHERE THE DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHEST... MEANING

SLIGHTLY GREATER SURFACE INSTABILITY... AND LOWER LCLS. EVEN WITH

THE SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY... HELICITIES ARE ALSO ON THE LOW

END WITH REGARDS TO TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT... AND THERE WILL NOT BE

A WARM FRONT IN PLAY TOMORROW FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA TO ENHANCE LOW

LEVEL SHEAR.

SO... EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS ALONG A QLCS WITH MAYBE AN EMBEDDED

SUPERCELL OR TWO... ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR A DISCRETE STORM TO

FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE AND ROTATE. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE

POSSIBLE WITH THE QLCS PASSAGE... AND WITH ANY TRAINING STORMS.

STORM TOTAL QPFS ARE IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE FOR ALL OF

CENTRAL ALABAMA EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST... WHICH MAY SEE SLIGHTLY

LOWER TOTALS.

[NavarreDon]

More good info from MOB....Sorry about going post crazy.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW FORECAST BY THE EURO TO BE

IN UPPER TX COAST IS LOCATED OVER THE TX MX BORDER INDICATING TO US

THAT THE EURO MAY BE RUNNING TOO FAST WITH A LIFT-OUT...POSITIVE

TILTING...AND DAMPENING OF THAT FEATURE. THEREFORE WE ARE STICKING

WITH GFS. AS THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES EAST FROM OVER THE SABINE

THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW WHICH HAD FORMED OVER THE TX GULF COAST

PUSHES NORTHEAST SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF IT BRINGING A SURFACE FRONT

TOWARDS THIS AREA. TIMING GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY CLOSE PHASE FOR AN

INCREASED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY

AFTERNOON...THEN BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

AS THE UPPER FEATURES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAKENING INDIRECT

CIRCULATION AHEAD OF IT WHICH INDICATES A MARGINAL FRONTOGENETIC

PROCESS. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO TROPOPAUSE FOLDING INDICATED. THE

FRONT WILL PROCEED RATHER SLOWLY OVER THE REGION BEGINNING FRIDAY AT

00Z AND OVERNIGHT UNTIL 12Z.

PW ABOUT 1.75 INCHES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT AND A LONG

FETCH OVER THE GULF. SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MAXING OUT AT 1200 J/KG

BUT THE LI IS A MODEST -1. TO -2. WE ARE COMPARING THIS TO WHAT IS

CURRENTLY HAPPENING TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE CAPE IS THE SAME THE LI

IS -6 OVER THERE...RELATIVELY UNSTABLE BUT STABILIZING AS IT MARCHES

EAST. THE CENTER OF 0 TO 1 KM HELICITY IS LAGGING THE INSTABILITY

AND CAPE AXIS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THERE TODAY...AND WHEN IT GETS

HERE...THEY PHASE MORE CLOSELY WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY MORE CONVINCING

FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER WE HAVE TO

CONSIDER CLOUD COVER LEADING TO SOLAR BLOCKING. WE HAVE ALSO BEEN

CONSIDERING SECONDARY WARM FRONTOGENESIS THAT COULD BRING IN SAID

CLOUD COVER TO SHORT CIRCUIT THE WORKS...SHUTTING DOWN MUCH OF THE

DESTABILIZING PROCESS. WE BELIEVE THE TORNADO RISK IS CONSIDERABLY

LESS THAT IT WAS TO OUR WEST TODAY. WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED TORNADO

ALONG THE SQUALL LINE ITSELF. NONE OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE

INDICATING A "LOADED GUN" SIGNATURE...AND WE BELIEVE BOW ECHOES WOULD

BE MORE LIKELY HERE. WE ARE THEREFORE GOING TO CONTINUE WORDING WITH

DAMAGING WIND...WITHOUT MENTIONING TORNADOES...PLUS HEAVY RAIN.

THE RISK OF BIG HAIL IS LESSENED WITH A WETBULB ZERO OF AROUND 11000

FEET.

[DaculaWeather]

I asked Steve Nelson what he thought about the weather tomorrow night...

"It must be bad enough cause the lead forecasters are making me work a mid shift tomorrow night. My third this week. I'm supposed to be M-F 8a-4p. The track of the storm makes me think the better CAPE will be on the gulf coast. We also might get our moisture and flow robbed by upstream convection in the gulf or gulf coast. That's why a further north track and a more open wave is better imo. No crud. "

Thanks Steve!

[DaculaWeather]

Extending Watch http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0071.html

[ATL_Militarypolice]

18Z GFS went more in line with the 12Z GGEM/UKMET.

The ULL ends up opening up and phasing with some northern energy.

18Z GFS

12Z GFS same time stamp

[audioguy3107]

From FFC's afternoon disco:

MODELED INSTABILITIES PEAK ACROSS THE CWA 00Z THURSDAY

THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY...WITH ML CAPE GENERALLY IN THE 200-300 J/KG

RANGE. DECENT SHEAR ACCOMPANIES THESE INSTABILITIES...WITH 0-1KM

SHEAR IN THE 25-35KT RANGE AS THE MAIN LINE PUSHES INTO THE

STATE...AND INCREASES TO 40-45KTS ACROSS THE CSG AND MCN AREAS BY

06-12Z FRIDAY. JUST BEHIND THESE MAXIMA...MODELED 0-6KM BULK SHEAR

APPROACHES 65-75 KTS. AS A RESULT...CAN EXPECT TO SEE LOCALLY

DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THURSDAY

NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF

THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION. SPC ALREADY HAS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL

GEORGIA OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. WITH THIS

STRONG EVENT EVOLVING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IT IS IMPORTANT

TO PREPARE NOW. DO NOT LET THESE STORMS CATCH YOU OFF GUARD.

I still am a little surprised by the wording coming from them on this.....doesn't seem like a setup that stands out from a lot of others we've had.

[LithiaWx]

From FFC's afternoon disco:

snip

I still am a little surprised by the wording coming from them on this.....doesn't seem like a setup that stands out from a lot of others we've had.

Yeah, I agree with you, this does seem a tad unorthodox for them given that SPC is not very bullish and the system just does not really stand out as anything special.

[toxictwister00]

I guess what happened in AL this past Monday has made them a bit more bullish and ambitious on severe weather this time around, but I agree I don't think this will be as ominous as they are making it out to be for us here.

[DaculaWeather]

FFC was already bringing in more staff this afternoon in anticipation. Storms should be arriving here between 6-8pm tonight. Latest from the FFC:

RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER INCREASES AS SYSTEM NEARS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. WHILE SPC ALREADY HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...GUIDANCE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXTENDING INTO A LARGER AREA THAN THE CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED REGION...GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ROME TO ATHENS TO VIDALIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TORNADOES...STRONG WINDS...AND HEAVY FLOODING RAINS ARE ALL POSSIBLE FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

[DaculaWeather]

MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE FFC 4KM WRF MODEL...CONTINUES THE

TREND OF A LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO NW GEORGIA AROUND 19-21Z

THURSDAY AND NEARING METRO ATLANTA AND COLUMBUS AROUND 00Z. WE COULD

SEE SOME ISOLATED DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE EVEN

EARLIER...POSSIBLY STARTING AROUND 18-20Z ENTERING WEST GEORGIA. 00Z

NAM HAS MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 800 J/KG IN WESTERN CENTRAL GEORGIA

AROUND 00Z WITH 0-1KM BULK SHEAR NEARING 30KTS AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR

NEARING 45-50KTS...COULD SEE SOME MORE DISCRETE CELLS IN WESTERN

CENTRAL GEORGIA BEFORE AN EVOLUTION TO QLCS.

[NavarreDon]

MOB am afd:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL

459 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 17 IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH

NOONTIME...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ARKLATEX

REGION THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO WEST VIRGINA

BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING WEST TO EAST

ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER LOW OVER

TEXAS WILL WEAKEN TO A TROF AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND

TONIGHT AS WELL. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY

EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IS

EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

PRIMARY EFFECTS OF LINE OF STORMS EXPECTED TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST

MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES BY AROUND 10-11 AM THIS MORNING...THEN INTO

SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND NOON TODAY...THEN AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL

ALABAMA (AREAS EAST OF I-65) AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE

THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW A

LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH THE LO-LVL 850MB JET ACROSS THE

REGION TODAY...NOW RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS INCREASED JET WILL COINCIDE WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE UPWARD

VERTICAL MOTION IN DIVERGENT FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER

TROF. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE LINE OF STORMS TO INTENSIFY LATER

THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE STRONG/SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS

OVER OUR FCST AREA. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED TO THE MID 60S ACROSS

MOST OF THE FCST AREA AS WELL...AND WILL INCREASE INSTABILITIES

AFTER SUNRISE TODAY. A TORNADO WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR

MOST OF THE FCST AREA (EXCEPT FOR BUTLER...CRENSHAW...COVINGTON...

AND OKALOOSA) UNTIL NOON TODAY. THIS SAID...BELIEVE THE TORNADO

THREAT IS LOW BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR A FEW ISOLATED...

BRIEF SPINUPS TO DEVELOP. PRIMARY THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY WILL BE

DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOSE INTENSITY AND END FROM WEST TO EAST

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS.

12/DS

[downeastnc]

Hmmm worked all night and didnt have time to really keep up with this so I was surprised a bit to see this...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0659 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012

...CAROLINAS/SRN VA EARLY FRI...

MODERATE TO STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PHASING UPR

TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD ZONE OF RAPID LOW LVL MOISTENING ALONG THE

ERN SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY FRI. AT THE SAME

TIME...LOW TO MID LVL FLOW WILL SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE...WITH 850 MB

SSWLY WINDS INCREASING TO AOA 60 KTS. THIS SETUP MAY SUPPORT

REJUVENATION OF EXISTING BANDS OF STORMS CROSSING THE SRN

APPALACHIANS FROM THE TN VLY...AND/OR NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEE

TROUGH JUST E OF THE MOUNTAINS. VERY STRONG LOW LVL FLOW/SHEAR

SUGGEST A CONDITIONAL THREAT OR BOTH DMGG WIND AND TORNADOES WITH

ANY SUSTAINED STORMS THAT DO FORM.

RAH overnight AFD downplayed the threat so it will be interesting to see how that changes with this mornings update from SPC....

[CandymanColumbusGA]

Wind and tornado probabilities have spread to the north and east with their latest update. They've also highlighted areas in the Carolinas. Certainly going to have to watch things as the low level jet is looking a tad stronger than forecast, moist, warm environment and a deepening low.

I'm still really concerned about the straight-line winds more so than the tornadic threat for most of us. As we all know, though, we can't let our guard down this afternoon/evening.

[buckeyefan1]

CAE is not impressed...

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO AGREEMENT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE

LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS

WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL

LOW OVER TX THIS MORNING WILL PHASE WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH DURING

THE EVENING. THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY

MORNING.

STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850 MB WILL PROVIDE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT

INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. WEAK INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH UPPER

DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION COULD ALLOW

THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR IN

THE 06Z-13Z TIME-FRAME. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT WITH LOWS

AROUND 60.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CROSSING THE MIDLANDS AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO END BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST

AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. WENT WITH CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES IN

THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUST UP TO 30 MPH.

A LAKE WIND WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

[Brick Tamland]

What a crazy winter. More severe storms and tornadoes than snow. I just read Allan Huffman's latest blog. He said we have to watch out around here tomorrow morning. Rush hour tomorrow morning should be just awesome.

[jburns]

MOB am afd:

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 17 IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH

NOONTIME...

Just curious, What is the largest number of

tornado watches ever nationwide for January?

[DaculaWeather]

Crap, not again. Two tornado warnings out for Alabama.

[audioguy3107]

Crap, not again. Two tornado warnings out for Alabama.

Seems to be never ending over there. Pretty misty and cool here, wouldn't expect much unless the misty fog breaks around here and we get a little warmup but you never know.

[degadylan77]

Crap, not again. Two tornado warnings out for Alabama.

Heavy rains in b-ham so far... hopefully if any severe it is SUPPOSSED to stay south of b-ham. We could use the BREAK!!

from spann: (hopefully today is not a suspenders day)

At the moment, SPC has a tornado watch in effect for Southwest Alabama, Southeast Mississippi, and Southeast Louisiana. Radar clearly shows numerous thunderstorms with some significant lightning. There were no warnings in effect when I was writing this around 6:30 am. The instability is marginal into Central Alabama with sufficient values, while instability remains the highest along the Gulf Coast. Once again, shear values are good, too, though not as high as we’ve seen recently. So the bottom line is that my belief is that the strongest storms will stay south of Central Alabama, generally south of about Montgomery. But simply because of uncertainty in how far north the instability can surge, it is best to stay up with the latest weather information.

[toxictwister00]

SPC thinks line will intensify once it emerges into AL

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0075 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0932 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...AL...WRN FL PNHDL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 17... VALID 261532Z - 261700Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 17 CONTINUES. AN ADDITIONAL WW PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... TOWARD 17-18Z. THICK CLOUD COVER IS SLOWING THE DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE NOW ADVANCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER AREA. AND...WITH LAPSE RATES ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE...CAPE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LOW...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR. HOWEVER...WITH TIME...A GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION WITH FILTERED INSOLATION PROBABLY WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING LINE...BOTH EASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD...ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA BY THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CONSOLIDATING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WHICH WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN INITIAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR PROBABLY WILL NOT RETREAT MUCH...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE AS FAR NORTH AS THE BIRMINGHAM AREA...AND MORE LIKELY THE ANNISTON/GADSON AREAS EASTWARD TO THE GEORGIA BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR ARE STILL SOMEWHAT MODEST...BUT THEY ARE PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...CONTRIBUTING TO THE RISK FOR TORNADOES IN ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. OTHERWISE...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH THE LARGE HAIL THREAT MUCH MORE MARGINAL. ..KERR.. 01/26/2012 ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 30408806 31088794 31838777 32438763 32838681 33518633 33878608 34048551 33138537 32088522 31408539 30208617 29168629 28048770 28928809 29938807 30408806

[toxictwister00]

New Tornado Watch (#18) out for the area highlighted above (No graphic out yet)

WOUS64 KWNS 261551

WOU8

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 18

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

955 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012

TORNADO WATCH 18 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CST FOR THE

FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ALC001-003-005-007-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-035-037-

039-041-045-047-051-053-061-065-067-069-081-085-087-091-099-101-

105-109-111-113-115-117-121-123-131-262300-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0018.120126T1555Z-120126T2300Z/

AL

. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR

BIBB BULLOCK BUTLER

CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHILTON

CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE

COFFEE CONECUH COOSA

COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE

DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA

GENEVA HALE HENRY

HOUSTON LEE LOWNDES

MACON MARENGO MONROE

MONTGOMERY PERRY PIKE

RANDOLPH RUSSELL SHELBY

ST. CLAIR TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA

WILCOX

FLC005-013-033-045-059-063-091-113-131-133-262300-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0018.120126T1555Z-120126T2300Z/

FL

. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA

GULF HOLMES JACKSON

OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON

WASHINGTON

GMZ630-650-655-750-262300-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0018.120126T1555Z-120126T2300Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

MOBILE BAY

COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM

ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE...MOB...

[HWY316wx]

The fog has not burned off like I thought it would.... I wonder if it might be our saving grace or if nothing else keep the sun from destablizing the atmosphere more ahead of the system?

[toxictwister00]

The fog has not burned off like I thought it would.... I wonder if it might be our saving grace or if nothing else keep the sun from destablizing the atmosphere more ahead of the system?

If you're still seeing fog, it probably won't last very long. All the fog has burned off here, temps are up into the low 60s and I'm seeing small breaks in the clouds here.

EDIT: Now the sun is starting to peak out.