wx n of atl Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Downtown ATL... it has warmed up but still feels chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 Just in MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0076 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 PM CST THU JAN 26 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...GA...NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 262016Z - 262215Z ONE OR TWO ADDITIONAL WWS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF STATES AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION BETWEEN NOW AND 00-01Z. THE SQUALL LINE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE HAS WEAKENED SOME. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING SUFFICIENT STRENGTH TO CONTINUE SUPPORTING A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ISOLATED TORNADOES AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION BY 23-00Z. FARTHER NORTH...MORE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING LONGER TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS EXISTS. BUT THERE STILL APPEARS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE RAPID DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW NOW LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TOWARD CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW IN EXCESS OF 50-60 KTS...WHICH WILL ENLARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE RESIDUAL EASTWARD ADVANCING CONVECTIVE BAND. THE INTERSECTION OF THIS CONVECTION WITH A REMNANT NEAR SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THIS MAY INCLUDE SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...NEAR/NORTH OF ATLANTA INTO WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AS THE REMNANTS OF AN UPSTREAM LOW BEGIN LIFTING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 00-03Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 I see storms re-forming on the backside of the main precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 I have Robins AFB radar (as well as the other ones in my sig) since Atlanta's isn't working! http://www.daculawea...b_jgx_br248.php Still a little far away for it though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcworthWx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I see storms re-forming on the backside of the main precip You beat me to the punch, Steve. Though I still don't see much happening up here in MBY. Tending to stay further south than it was looking this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 You beat me to the punch, Steve. Though I still don't see much happening up here in MBY. Tending to stay further south than it was looking this morning. Big fail for metro-Atlanta. We will be lucky to clear .75" for the event imo. Severe isn't happening either this far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Big fail for metro-Atlanta. We will be lucky to clear .75" for the event imo. Severe isn't happening either this far north. Doesn't look like it up here, have to agree yet the SPC's new mesoscale disco seems to think there's a chance some more isolated convection could fire ahead of the precip in Alabama, but it sure doesn't look that way based on the radar trends. Things have definitely warmed up, feels more soupy outside, but it's much warmer on the southside of ATL than up here in northern Gwinnett. Temps in Duluth on my way home were around 70 yet only 3 exits up temps are around 61. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Doesn't look like it up here, have to agree yet the SPC's new mesoscale disco seems to think there's a chance some more isolated convection could fire ahead of the precip in Alabama, but it sure doesn't look that way based on the radar trends. Things have definitely warmed up, feels more soupy outside, but it's much warmer on the southside of ATL than up here in northern Gwinnett. Temps in Duluth on my way home were around 70 yet only 3 exits up temps are around 61. People at my office saying it's gonna flood because there is a flash flood watch. All I can do is sigh. Some of the FFC forecasters kinda blew this one. I remember hearing 1-3 inches a couple days today, and the severe doesn't seem like it's materializing like they thought it would. Maybe we get more rain than the radar is showing but I'm pretty skeptical at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 Steve Nelson said yesterday that he thought that maybe upstream convection might rob us of the bad stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Big fail for metro-Atlanta. We will be lucky to clear .75" for the event imo. Severe isn't happening either this far north. Yeah this is gonna be pretty lame by the way it looks right now. I've gotten .12" so far today. Look at my forecast for tonight. Come on FFC. Occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 1am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Low around 51. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Somehow I see us falling short... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 New outlook Matches up good with current obs too. Mesonet stations with temp 64 or above. Dew Point is in blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 From Brad Panovich on Twitter.. CAPE is building big time to our South & East, this line of storms will intensify as it moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 Tornado Watch added to our south http://www.daculaweather.com/national_alerts/severe_alert.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcworthWx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Big fail for metro-Atlanta. We will be lucky to clear .75" for the event imo. Severe isn't happening either this far north. True and they still have us (Cobb Co.) and Cherokee county under FFW. http://www.daculaweather.com/AtomZoneAll.php?zone=GAZ021&loc=Cherokee+Georgia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Radar indicated some weak rotation in the line about 15 miles southwest of Columbus GA around 420 PM EST. Probably won't do anything but very heavy rainfall should move into that area shortly along with gusty winds and some lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Radar indicated some weak rotation in the line about 15 miles southwest of Columbus GA around 420 PM EST. Probably won't do anything but very heavy rainfall should move into that area shortly along with gusty winds and some lightning. 514 EST loop shows another flare-up about 5 miles west of Columbus. Would not be surprised to see an SVR here. Otherwise, a couple of other mesocyclones to the south, but nothing too impressive yet in this Tornado Watch area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Looks like some isolated stuff forming behind the main batch of rain around Birmingham and points south. We'll have to see if that grows into anything substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 looks like redevelopment is occurring right along the front in eastern Mississippi. The RUC has a strong vort rounding the base tonight and headed across Ga, so follow that for the possible redevelopment if theres enough moisture convergence and cape can recover enough. Actually with the primary lifting west of the Apps tonight it bodes pretty bad news possibly for northern Ga and Ala and into western Carolinas after midnight, esp. considering how the last event occurred very similarly to this one with an opening closed low lifting over the southern Apps (2 ef2 twisters in NC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 I agree... this is starting to look a little worse now with individual cells firing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 Atlanta radar is back on line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I agree... this is starting to look a little worse now with individual cells firing up. Well I spoke to soon it appears. There is at least a chance of some activity now. Earlier the radar led me to believe there was not much else. My bad, that will teach me a new lesson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Are we talking a serious tornado threat? I'm down to 62.5o. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 No, I don't think we'll see any in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Well, I'm pretty danged happy. .6 of rain and still coming down good. No thunder, no lightening, no wind. Just some soaking rains, so far. Hope ya'll what wants 'em get good storms...I'm pleased to just get some rain, for a change. I had enough thunder lately to get set up for about 10 snows down the line T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 Nah... it's a dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Kiss of death -- RAH AFD has switched their 'tenth or less' to 'one quarter to one half inch' for my location. Certainly will be interesting once again to see what happens with this system in the late overnight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The line has super weakened for the CAE area. Nothing to even stay up for here. SPC doesn't even think it's worth a watch at all. Should have known when TWC said "possibility of severe weather" for this area it'd be the complete opposite. I don't even see good rain totals out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 60 degrees and a stiff breeze from the south, at 11:33 pm on Jan 26th...unreal folks... BTW, thats our high temperature for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Might be a bit of a flare up going on with this line as it approaches RDU..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 0.45" so far this morning. nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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