ChescoWx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 JB's Fab February has 4 to 8 below normal over the MidAtlantic region for the Feb 11-15. Here is a couple quotes from his latest post. "The ridging is where the trough used to be! ITS OPPOSITE, and that is the period beyond the concern here, the front 2 weeks. So I start in to cut the jet in underneath and this could result in the Fab Feb winter weatherwise I have alldued too. The greatest threat for SEVERE COLD... it hitting 0 in Chicago or 10 in NYC is probably in the day 11-20 period but the pattern may then go to one where its not quite as cold, but its storm and wet" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 JB's Fab February has 4 to 8 below normal over the MidAtlantic region for the Feb 11-15. Here is a couple quotes from his latest post. "The ridging is where the trough used to be! ITS OPPOSITE, and that is the period beyond the concern here, the front 2 weeks. So I start in to cut the jet in underneath and this could result in the Fab Feb winter weatherwise I have alldued too. The greatest threat for SEVERE COLD... it hitting 0 in Chicago or 10 in NYC is probably in the day 11-20 period but the pattern may then go to one where its not quite as cold, but its storm and wet" 10 in NYC is severe cold? I guess I'm not quite buying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 10 in NYC is severe cold? I guess I'm not quite buying that. I agree. -5 to -10 is severe cold. If the 10 degrees is with a substantial snow-pack, then JB is way off base. Radiate cooling on the clear nights will easily put the lows at or below zero. I guess he saying that if snows, my cold predictions will be off and if does not snow, then my predicted lows for NYC maybe correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 This was cool to see. Eyebrow raising runs have been hard to come by... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Fab Feb?? Feb 11-15 is only 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 He indicates much of both Feb and March to be below normal but the coldest vs norms being that period. The period after while not as cold relative to average may be stormier and colder than average....hence his projected Fab Feb. Fab Feb?? Feb 11-15 is only 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 0Z GFS is going to be a nice hit for the MA and into parts of the Northeast: The 1032 mb hp noring South from Hudson's Bay is a beaut! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 0Z GFS is going to be a nice hit for the MA and into parts of the Northeast: That is a carbon copy at h5 of blizzard of 96! Weenie alert! The 1032 mb hp noring South from Hudson's Bay is a beaut! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 That's the best GFS map yet for the storm. Now it will probably change between now and the storm, but hopefully not the overall setup. We still have about 20 more GFS runs until the storm. The models have been waffling around like crazy and the ensemble members are all over the place. Basically, we'll have no clue what might happen until midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Sorry, I'm getting used to this mobile version of AmericanWx, and deleted my post accidentally. But you can see what it said in my reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 The latest thoughts on the Beatles February per JB... "The meteorological aspect of my "flip' is dead on right as you can see here, because since Jan 12th, the NAO and AO have certainly averaged negative. The weather I believe is responding to this , and the warmup that followed the 10 days of cold is transient, so that the next step of cold is longer and stronger and more widespread, and may "lock" us into the cold Feb and march . It would be fitting that a snowstorm that many did not see two weekends ago that hit last weekend, was followed by this "non event" now, but then many of you next Sunday that have to have the snow on the ground to understand what is going on overhead in the atmosphere, may have it back on the ground again. But look for yourself at the AO and NAO and you can see the step down function of the change has us clearly in the negative, with the first crossing from the pattern around the date I outline for you early in Jan" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 The latest thoughts on the Beatles February per JB... "The meteorological aspect of my "flip' is dead on right as you can see here, because since Jan 12th, the NAO and AO have certainly averaged negative. The weather I believe is responding to this , and the warmup that followed the 10 days of cold is transient, so that the next step of cold is longer and stronger and more widespread, and may "lock" us into the cold Feb and march . It would be fitting that a snowstorm that many did not see two weekends ago that hit last weekend, was followed by this "non event" now, but then many of you next Sunday that have to have the snow on the ground to understand what is going on overhead in the atmosphere, may have it back on the ground again. But look for yourself at the AO and NAO and you can see the step down function of the change has us clearly in the negative, with the first crossing from the pattern around the date I outline for you early in Jan" He must be using a different NAO index from this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Here is what JB was referencing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 FWIW, the 12Z GFS is a continuation of what we've seen all "winter" where Northern DE and Philly experience occasional periods of mild coolness below freezing only to have the surface warm in advance of each system that rolls through. My ratio of hours of model watching per inch of snow is now undefined. It's less clear for the far NW burbs of Philly and the LV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 GFS op is fighting against it's own ensembles in regards to the NAO: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 You can also note the GFS op is against the mighty Euro in regards to the AO: My hunch is there will be a major pattern change setting up in early Feb as some have already mentioned. The disagreement among the major global indices should be a clear indicator, no pun intended. Any change would be welcome compared to what we've seen already this winter, even if relatively short-lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 euro is a fail for the storm...rain for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 euro is a fail for the storm...rain for the cities. yea, it drives the primary a little to far north...lehigh valley north look to do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 euro is a fail for the storm...rain for the cities. N and W of the cities see some snow depending on elevation, anyway it's a long way off so things will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 yea, it drives the primary a little to far north...lehigh valley north look to do well. same situ as a couple of days ago locally on the EC...precip is wrapping up as the storm wraps up and draws cold in. Coating type snows in Poconos and LV per wunderground weenie map. Looks good for Binghamton though! (note, I'm talking about the storm at 102, not 168) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 very cold end to the euro at day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 very cold end to the euro at day 10 Agree. Pretty impressive baro-whatever zone for something to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 same situ as a couple of days ago locally on the EC...precip is wrapping up as the storm wraps up and draws cold in. Coating type snows in Poconos and LV per wunderground weenie map. Looks good for Binghamton though! (note, I'm talking about the storm at 102, not 168) Well the EC and GFS are in two different worlds. Model agreement FTL, we'll have to wait untill the middle of the week to get some agreement with this system, I suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 It is going to require Pacific Winter Recon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 It is going to require Pacific Winter Recon IN MORE DETAIL...SEE BELOW EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 153 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS..ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE OF 06Z GFS/06Z GEFS MEAN/LAGGED AVERAGE FORECASTS/ENSEMBLE CLUSTER GROUPINGS CONTINUE TO CONCUR WITH ABOVE THINKING. A DIFFICULT AND LOW TO NO CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN DETAILS LATE PERIOD MAINLY WITH THE ERN CONUS TROF. BASED ON AN AMALGAM OF DAYS 6-7 SOLUTIONS THE 06Z GFS ENS MEAN SHOULD BE INCORPORATED INTO THE SOLUTION AND SUPPORTS THE EARLIER ABOVE USED OVERNIGHT MODEL BLEND. DEPICTION BY DAY 5 FRI OF A CENTER JUMPING SFC LOW FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE NC COAST AND THAN AN EXIT NEWD TO NEAR THE NEW ENG BENCH MARK BY DAY 6 SAT SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME ALBEIT WITH CONTINUED VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. AFTN MODEL AND ENS GUIDANCE CONTINUES UNDERMINE ANY ALREADY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY RELIABLE SOLUTION OVER MUCH OF CONUS AS GFS/UKMET/CMC/ECMWF HAVE GONE BACK TO YESTERDAYS 12Z SOLUTIONS OF LEAVING BEHIND SIGNIFICANT ENERGY IN SWRN CONUS WITH THE CMC/UKMET AND ECMWF HAVING THE STRONGEST MID LEVELS AND AT THE SFC FORMING A SFC LOW IN THE SRN PLAINS TO GLFMEX REGION THEN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLC REGIONS. GFS WHILE LEAVING BEHIND MORE OF A MID LEVEL LOW IN THAT REGION SHEARS IT OUT AND HAS THE DIGGING NRN STREAM THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS RESULTS IN A NRN STREAM SHORTWVE AND LOW REFORMING FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE NC COAST BUT SHIFTING EWD WELL OFFSHORE. THE VERY LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS AND UNCERTAINTY AND A GREAT WEATHER AND SOCIAL POTENTIAL IMPACT IN WHATEVER SOLUTION TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT WARRANTS A WINTER STORM PACIFIC RECON WHICH WILL BE FLOWN EARLY THIS WEEK. AFTN FINALS WILL NOT BE CHANGED BASED ON THE RECENT 12Z RUNS. THERE IS SIMILARITY TO YESTERDAYS 12Z RUNS WHICH QUICKLY CHANGED OVERNIGHT. RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Big improvement in outlooks in last week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 are the weeklies tonight or tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 i am a huge supporter of a good arctic blast. 10 day doesn't give me to much confidence, but i'll take what i can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 are the weeklies tonight or tomorrow? I think on Mondays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 are the weeklies tonight or tomorrow? I think on Mondays. Mondays and Thursdays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.