Logan11 Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 OVC and 29 here at 10:35.... I see the next batch of stuff on the sw edge of ENX. That may come in as -FZRA here for awhile. Had about 1" here. Seasonal total now at at a whopping 9.6"...almost to double digits! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 The 12Z NAM seems to hang the 0C 850 line up near Smith's Falls. Then it might just kiss Ottawa around the 5 to 7 pm period before getting swept away as colder air comes in. Maybe you'll get lucky and have sleet for a bit rather than much ice. Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans 5:30 AM EST Tuesday 17 January 2012 Winter storm warning for Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans continued ..Heavy snow followed by freezing rain.. A deepening low will track northeast across southern and Eastern Ontario today accompanied by significant snow. Patchy freezing drizzle will be replaced by snow heavy at times this morning before changing to ice pellets and freezing rain later in the day. Snowfall amounts of close to 15 centimetres are likely followed by some ice buildup due to freezing rain. Conditions should improve tonight when the low moves over the Ottawa area into Quebec. Driving conditions will become hazardous today due to accumulating snow, very low visibility in heavy snow, and potential for ice buildup on untreated surfaces when the freezing rain arrives. A deepening low will move northeast across lower Michigan into Southern Ontario near the Sarnia area this morning. It will then track northeast to north of Toronto by this evening then across the Ottawa area into Southern Quebec tonight. This low will bring significant snow and freezing rain to regions near and northwest of its track. Refer to your local public forecast for further details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roady Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Forecast last night of coating to an inch the freezing rain to rain. Radar showed heavy snow followed by a break then just rain. Reality showed sleet and little freezing rain with a gap. So I send the sanders out.Then it snows 2.5" and no rain. Can't wind with forecasts like these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The 12Z NAM seems to hang the 0C 850 line up near Smith's Falls. Then it might just kiss Ottawa around the 5 to 7 pm period before getting swept away as colder air comes in. Maybe you'll get lucky and have sleet for a bit rather than much ice. Rick I'm northeast of Ottawa, near Gatineau airport (just across the river). It's been snowing all morning, probably around an inch so far. I'm just glad we got some snow before any freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Picked up 3" of snow last night.. GFS starting to look better for saturday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 This next batch is coming in here as a frozen mist mixed with grain type things. 31F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Picked up 3" of snow last night.. GFS starting to look better for saturday.. Canadian now on board as well. Hoping the mighty Euro follows suit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 Yep...familiar with your approximate location from my numerous trips to that area, such as camping at Lac Philippe quite a few times..also been to the Museum of Civilization in Hull. But I have never been into the "city" of Gatineau proper. Good luck holding onto the snowfall as long as possible. Classic case here where despite an unfavorable storm track, NE NY maximizes leftover cold air to score some snow and now ice and the thaw will be pretty brief. Saturday may be a similar event, but further south and perhaps our chance here. Rick I'm northeast of Ottawa, near Gatineau airport (just across the river). It's been snowing all morning, probably around an inch so far. I'm just glad we got some snow before any freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 Hope so... Finally be nice to get the kind of snow event I thought would be common in this La Nina winter. Marginal here now, but glazing at 31.3...sure this is very localized to my hill location. I hang onto low level cold air until the bitter end here with the gradual upward rise in land my south from my 1k feet to 2 k feet in southwest Albany county ...whereas ALB has the Hudson Valley to their south to channel mild air up on south winds readily. Canadian now on board as well. Hoping the mighty Euro follows suit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I'm only a few miles from you, and was already above freezing when I left my house at 9:30 this morning. Being the highpoint locally, we warm up pretty fast in these situations. Hope so... Finally be nice to get the kind of snow event I thought would be common in this La Nina winter. Marginal here now, but glazing at 31.3...sure this is very localized to my hill location. I hang onto low level cold air until the bitter end here with the gradual upward rise in land my south from my 1k feet to 2 k feet in southwest Albany county ...whereas ALB has the Hudson Valley to their south to channel mild air up on south winds readily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 At 9:30 I was still around 28 I'd say... I was out shoveling the driveway... Not really enough for the blower or plow so I shoveled it all out. I hate leaving half the gravel on the lawn trying to get down low with the plow in these minor snowfalls. Too much clean-up in the spring. I'm only a few miles from you, and was already above freezing when I left my house at 9:30 this morning. Being the highpoint locally, we warm up pretty fast in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 We are suppposed to get wind gust higher then 65mph this evening. Some of the highest wind events ever in WNY occur in this set up with the funneling up lake erie. Be interesting to see what the max wind gusts will be this evening. I can see a few places seeing Hurricane Force Wind gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Euro did come a bit north on the weekend event. Looks like it gets maybe 0.15" up into ALB. Nice trend on the 12z models. Something to track for the rest of the week I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 This year we definitely want to start out on the north side of the envelope of solutions... leaving room for a trend north. Euro did come a bit north on the weekend event. Looks like it gets maybe 0.15" up into ALB. Nice trend on the 12z models. Something to track for the rest of the week I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 32.4 with light rain and fog now... Edged above freezing by 2:00 O'clock..... This year we definitely want to start out on the north side of the envelope of solutions... leaving room for a trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 High of 52 degrees! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 Eww ..I couldn't take those temperature swings. LOL 32 here with cold -RN and fog...about to taper to drizzle. Doesn't seem to be freezing..... High of 52 degrees! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Eww ..I couldn't take those temperature swings. LOL 32 here with cold -RN and fog...about to taper to drizzle. Doesn't seem to be freezing..... I love the heat/sun more then the cold. I absolutely love Buffalo summers, in my opinion they are the best in the east. 80-85 and sunny everyday for 3-4 months straight. 55 degree temperatuers will heat up my lovely lake to blast us with some LES (Hopefully)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 High Wind Event... So the AFD out of BUF stated: THE HIGH WIND SCENARIO WILL SET UP THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS PAST TO THE NORTH. LOOKING AT THE SAINT LOUIS UNIVERSITY CIPS COLD SEASON ANALOGS...THIS EVENT IS SIMILAR AND STRONGER THAN TWO SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENTS FROM 22ND AND 27TH OF FEBRUARY OF 1997 FOR WHICH WINDS WERE RESPECTIVELY 63 AND 70 MPH. OUR CURRENT ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THESE PAST EVENTS...THUS HAVE MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTLOOK FOR A STRONG BUT SHORT LIVED HIGH WIND EVENT THIS EVENING. These 2 events pushed gust at KROC upwards of 80mph (if my memory serves me correctly). The NWS is saying that this event looks stronger than those. Anyone from the ROC area care to comment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 High Wind Event... So the AFD out of BUF stated: THE HIGH WIND SCENARIO WILL SET UP THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS PAST TO THE NORTH. LOOKING AT THE SAINT LOUIS UNIVERSITY CIPS COLD SEASON ANALOGS...THIS EVENT IS SIMILAR AND STRONGER THAN TWO SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENTS FROM 22ND AND 27TH OF FEBRUARY OF 1997 FOR WHICH WINDS WERE RESPECTIVELY 63 AND 70 MPH. OUR CURRENT ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THESE PAST EVENTS...THUS HAVE MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTLOOK FOR A STRONG BUT SHORT LIVED HIGH WIND EVENT THIS EVENING. These 2 events pushed gust at KROC upwards of 80mph (if my memory serves me correctly). The NWS is saying that this event looks stronger than those. Anyone from the ROC area care to comment? Yeah looks like very intense wind event from 7 pm to 3 am. Hoping my power does not go out!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 Back to 31.8 here in dense fog and mist. Dunno how perfect my thermometer is, could be freezing on things again. We'll stay socked in until the front approaches later tonight and then all of a sudden we'll spike briefly to maybe upper 30s and then crash. Yeah looks like very intense wind event from 7 pm to 3 am. Hoping my power does not go out!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 Andy is awol right now so I'll post his map from the news earlier today regarding tomorrow LES and Upslope into far eastern NY and western NE mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 * AT 505 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF WESTFIELD TO 31 MILES WEST OF FINDLEY LAKE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 33 MILES WEST OF DUNKIRK TO 54 MILES WEST OF JAMESTOWN...AND MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH. Here they come! Severe Thunderstorm Warning in January. HAHA! Lighting, Thunder, Very Heavy Rain, CRAZY WINDS! Hit a high temperature of 55 here today. =0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 an inch of snow with some FRZRA after, now 33 and quiet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Mesoscale Discussion up for Western NY and NW PA http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0027.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Very narrow, yet very intense line of low-topped convection is flying through the region in and south of Buffalo. Lots of people likely caught off-guard by this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Yeah looks like very intense wind event from 7 pm to 3 am. Hoping my power does not go out!! Don't know how strong the winds were just gusting but god damn. Shook the entire house to the point pictures on the walls were rattling, and I live in a thick brick house.Never had the house shake ever. Must have been at least 60mph gust by my estimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Yes indeed!!! A 67 mph gust recorded at the NWS in BUF. I bet the winds were over 70 here. It was fricken insane how much the house shook! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormtracker81 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Did anyone get hit by this yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 55 degrees to 45 degrees in 10 minutes. Gust over 60 MPH in that line that just passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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