Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

January storm threat discussion #2


Ian

Recommended Posts

verbatim, very light snow to start then quickly to rain...the sfc low moves from se Ohio right over us....we need it further south....All I am hoping for is a 1-2" snow to rain event though that is probably still a longshot

0c in n md with .05" qpf by 12z.. you sure that's snow? maybe nw of the city. the run looks worse than 0z otherwise if you want anything of consequence.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

it pops a really weak low to our south after the first wave but it's pretty mild at that point verbatim and the wave just wanders east.

I guess I should have been clearer

I was refering to the 3 vortexes over Canada

2, not uncommon at all, but 3 lined up like that intent on doing us dirty is a bit unfair

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some things never change, you always buy the snowier model.

Euro is not always the king...GFS had the same look for the "JB" minor event that gave us over an inch...Euro had it further north and most here said it would be rain if anything...not over yet

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro is not always the king...GFS had the same look for the "JB" minor event that gave us over an inch...Euro had it further north and most here said it would be rain if anything...not over yet

I don't think that's quite true.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

to be sure, Euro has beat the GFS several times this winter, but the GFS has beat the Euro as well

who knows which way it will be with this one

Coastalwx is right in pointing out the track and intensity of the 1st clipper will be key, so we're "in the game" for now is the way I see it

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anything over +10 departures for a few days in a row is a torch. Sorry. No one said it was gonna torch for the next 2 months.

My normal high is 39. 10 over is 49. I hardly consider that a torch. Anyone in this region that would is not very reasonable about where they live.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

one thing is for sure, whatever happens, it's gonna' be well AN a week from now and beyond up and down the east coast

Yep though the euro suggests maybe not quite as warm as the 850 temps wouldsuggest towards the end of the pd as the low level winds would have an easterly component. Still it or the euro ens mean make it look like the saturday event is a long shot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not to totally throw a wet towel on the chatter regarding the GFS, but our near-real time (unofficial) experimental GFS (with a new initialization scheme) is quite a bit more pessimistic (much warmer). I've only taken a quick glance, but it gives us some snow on the front end and looks to change over pretty quickly. Here's an example from the 5 day forecast from 12z today [operational GFS is the top panel, experimental (q3fy12) is the bottom panel]:

PSPR_naf120_t12z.png

These plots are made available with some delay (several hours) from our EMC VSDB verification and monitoring page:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

Under the heading "2D Maps".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not to totally throw a wet towel on the chatter regarding the GFS, but our near-real time (unofficial) experimental GFS (with a new initialization scheme) is quite a bit more pessimistic (much warmer). I've only taken a quick glance, but it gives us some snow on the front end and looks to change over pretty quickly. Here's an example from the 5 day forecast from 12z today [operational GFS is the top panel, experimental (q3fy12) is the bottom panel]:

PSPR_naf120_t12z.png

These plots are made available with some delay (several hours) from our EMC VSDB verification and monitoring page:

http://www.emc.ncep....gmb/STATS_vsdb/

Under the heading "2D Maps".

cool, the experimental run fits my preconcieved notions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not to totally throw a wet towel on the chatter regarding the GFS, but our near-real time (unofficial) experimental GFS (with a new initialization scheme) is quite a bit more pessimistic (much warmer). I've only taken a quick glance, but it gives us some snow on the front end and looks to change over pretty quickly. Here's an example from the 5 day forecast from 12z today [operational GFS is the top panel, experimental (q3fy12) is the bottom panel]:

PSPR_naf120_t12z.png

These plots are made available with some delay (several hours) from our EMC VSDB verification and monitoring page:

http://www.emc.ncep....gmb/STATS_vsdb/

Under the heading "2D Maps".

neat....thanks...and it isn't a wet towel...we have 0.6" season to date and it is the warmest and least snowy I-95 winter since 2001-02...I'm pretty sure nobody is optimistic about getting snow in this pattern....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mitchnick or snowluver?

I think they know better, but want to stay "positive".....I am pretty sure for 99% of us , we understand the context of the discussion....We are a bunch of snow weenies, but I think the knowledge level and understanding in the forum overall is pretty high....at this point in the season, we are going to track T-1" events that have a 20% chance of occurring

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...