CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 EC ensembles retrograde everything at the end of the run. We may get mild again, before possible trying to pop a +PNA down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The GFS op seems to be on its own right now with the Sat storm. I still don't see much if it hinted on other guidance, but we'll see as we get closer. Sometimes the GFS can sniff them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I support that 00z GFS... a little sleet and zr from warm H85s but no real organized precip on Thursday... then SNE gets some snows on Friday/Saturday. That'd be a fantastic way to avoid a big rainer before MLK weekend and give this forum a little shot in the arm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Hopefully some of that strat warming can throw a bone here, because we start to play with fire I think by the end of the runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I support that 00z GFS... a little sleet and zr from warm H85s but no real organized precip on Thursday... then SNE gets some snows on Friday/Saturday. That'd be a fantastic way to avoid a big rainer before MLK weekend and give this forum a little shot in the arm. Alyeska at 400" since Oct.1st. You can't blame me for leaving. INCLUDING...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...MOOSE PASS 945 PM AKST SAT JAN 7 2012 ...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST SUNDAY NEAR WHITTIER... .TONIGHT...SNOW. BLOWING SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR WHITTIER REDUCING VISIBILITY TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. SNOW ACCUMULATION 4 TO 8 INCHES. LOWS 5 TO 20 ABOVE...COOLEST INLAND. VARIABLE WIND TO 15 MPH. NEAR SEWARD...NORTH WIND 15 TO 30 MPH...GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN THE EVENING. NEAR WHITTIER...WEST WIND INCREASING TO 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. .SUNDAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES NEAR WHITTIER. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 30S. NORTH TO WEST WIND 5 TO 20 MPH EXCEPT NORTH 20 TO 35 MPH NEAR SEWARD. NEAR WHITTIER...WEST WIND 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 We are about to enter one of the biggest flips of a wx pattern of our lives..The next 6 weeks are going to be very very wntry..All systems go. All models on board..all indices just where we want them http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wxrisk.com%2F2012%2F01%2Fhistoric-pattern-flip-coming%2F&h=LAQFm-slgAQG1t6xmFJHoMixNuBoDTfTRkpMB_cvOKnnqVg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 We are about to enter one of the biggest flips of a wx pattern of our lives..The next 6 weeks are going to be very very wntry..All systems go. All models on board..all indices just where we want them http://www.facebook....RkpMB_cvOKnnqVg LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 LOL It's time for you to stop being so careful and worrying. All major mets are on board with this. For once,, just allow yourself to get excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 So we've got 2 possible snow events this week. Monday night and then Saturday. I hear the GFS has snow Saturday and the GGEM has it too. Would be nice if the Euro had that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 It's time for you to stop being so careful and worrying. All major mets are on board with this. For once,, just allow yourself to get excited I'm on board with a change. I'm not on board with a historic and snowy 6 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I'm on board with a change. I'm not on board with a historic and snowy 6 weeks. Board this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Board this Hopefully it doesn't go to crap in 3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 We are about to enter one of the biggest flips of a wx pattern of our lives..The next 6 weeks are going to be very very wntry..All systems go. All models on board..all indices just where we want them http://www.facebook....RkpMB_cvOKnnqVg Someone please save this post for next year's WOTY competition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Hopefully it doesn't go to crap in 3 weeks. In all seriousness, what are your thoughts on the Monday night and Saturday snow threats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 It's time for you to stop being so careful and worrying. All major mets are on board with this. For once,, just allow yourself to get excited Not everyone, Joe L still holding out as of 1/6 Furthermore, I continue to stare at the European weeklies that refuse to budge on their position of a warm pattern from the eastern Rockies to the East on the whole right into early February. Their 500mb forecasts don't show any blocking, either. There are still too few things lining up to convince me it's turning colder to stay cold for a while. Maybe it'll happen, but right now, I'm not on that train just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Alyeska at 400" since Oct.1st. You can't blame me for leaving. Not at all dude... it was funny, even the BTV guys yesterday showed me those stats out of Valdez. We were talking about how dry the Sierra and Rockies are and then they were like, "You want to see a real snowy place? Look at this climate report. We've all been drooling over the Valdez reports for two months now." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 So we've got 2 possible snow events this week. Monday night and then Saturday. I hear the GFS has snow Saturday and the GGEM has it too. Would be nice if the Euro had that one Why anyone would look at the GFS is beyond me... what an atrocious model. And then the fact that someone might believe it! Geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 EC ensembles retrograde everything at the end of the run. We may get mild again, before possible trying to pop a +PNA down the road. But does retrogression not give us a west based -NAO? And then if the SSW has truly kicked in we are still -AO and we go into the tank again....and then a gradient -PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Why anyone would look at the GFS is beyond me... what an atrocious model. And then the fact that someone might believe it! Geez. Exactly..I didn't look it. I only heard it has snow..though it does have the GGEM with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Exactly..I didn't look it. I only heard it has snow..though it does have the GGEM with it Damnit you're good with semantics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 In all seriousness, what are your thoughts on the Monday night and Saturday snow threats? I feel like the Monday threat is a stretch. It's a sheared crappy low with maybe some rain or snow ticking the south coast. I suppose I wouldn't rule out some brief very light snow, but it looks ugly right now. That doesn't excite me at all...it could disappear on guidance. Saturday's threat is all over the place. There are differences with modeling handling the s/w's and that won't be resolved for a few days at least. I'd keep an eye on that for now. Ensembles don't really have much right now..just some signs on the members. It may be pushed back to Sunday as well, but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 But does retrogression not give us a west based -NAO? And then if the SSW has truly kicked in we are still -AO and we go into the tank again....and then a gradient -PNA Nah it still has a postive NAO look. The heights might rise in the NAO domain, but heights also rise here, which is not what you want. That's getting out there...we are talking beyond 2 weeks and a lot of things could happen, but I could see some sort of a relaxation of the pattern or some sort of a warm up. After that, I have no idea and it sounds like many long term guys don't either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Nah it still has a postive NAO look. The heights might rise in the NAO domain, but heights also rise here, which is not what you want. That's getting out there...we are talking beyond 2 weeks and a lot of things could happen, but I could see some sort of a relaxation of the pattern or some sort of a warm up. After that, I have no idea and it sounds like many long term guys don't either. I don't know why DT is so excited about a -NAO. I don't see any signs of that. I do agree with you that we begin to play with fire toward to end of D15 with the retrograde from Kamchatka into Siberia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Nah it still has a postive NAO look. The heights might rise in the NAO domain, but heights also rise here, which is not what you want. That's getting out there...we are talking beyond 2 weeks and a lot of things could happen, but I could see some sort of a relaxation of the pattern or some sort of a warm up. After that, I have no idea and it sounds like many long term guys don't either. We seem to have 2 competing signals for that timeframe. One is the return to the persistent pattern of the season. We thought that would happen last year (Don S was thinking that), I mean, we had an intense -NAO pattern that we thought would relax and reappear in later Feb and March. It didn't as we remember and winter left like a lamb. So maybe that happens this year but ending as a lion not a lamb. The other option is that the SSW continues and has an impact and sustains our high latitude blocking. That looks to have a real shot at happening given the lag time and apparently ongoing/expanding warming at high latitudes (I think JB was saying that?). I know the lag is 2-3 weeks on those things, but how long does a true shift in the AO typically last? Given that it is a Nina perhaps where we go in 3 weeks is to a gradient pattern with a -AO providing just enough cold air. In other words NYC and south get a 3 week period of winter but we get 6-8 weeks up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I don't know why DT is so excited about a -NAO. I don't see any signs of that. I do agree with you that we begin to play with fire toward to end of D15 with the retrograde from Kamchatka into Siberia. Yeah by no means are we trying to be downers or anything, but some signs are there for that. It still could be good for us albeit cutting it close...but it could kind of crap the bed for a period of time. I guess what happens after that is up to the stratosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 D16 on the GFS ensembles is pretty ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 We seem to have 2 competing signals for that timeframe. One is the return to the persistent pattern of the season. We thought that would happen last year (Don S was thinking that), I mean, we had an intense -NAO pattern that we thought would relax and reappear in later Feb and March. It didn't as we remember and winter left like a lamb. So maybe that happens this year but ending as a lion not a lamb. The other option is that the SSW continues and has an impact and sustains our high latitude blocking. That looks to have a real shot at happening given the lag time and apparently ongoing/expanding warming at high latitudes (I think JB was saying that?). I know the lag is 2-3 weeks on those things, but how long does a true shift in the AO typically last? Given that it is a Nina perhaps where we go in 3 weeks is to a gradient pattern with a -AO providing just enough cold air. In other words NYC and south get a 3 week period of winter but we get 6-8 weeks up here. I still like NNE in this pattern. Even if it relaxes...you guys could still cash in while we mix or something like that. It all depends on what happens above. It can warm all it wants, but it needs to downwell. Maybe we can get blocking to develop again in similar areas towards February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I don't know why DT is so excited about a -NAO. I don't see any signs of that. I do agree with you that we begin to play with fire toward to end of D15 with the retrograde from Kamchatka into Siberia. I didn't read his post...is that what he thinks? I don't know...maybe in February but I see no signs of that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I think we'll have 2-3 chances of something through the 21st or so..starting this weekend. Not to say there could not be a renegade low somewhere in between, but hopefully we can get something out of this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I don't know why DT is so excited about a -NAO. I don't see any signs of that. I do agree with you that we begin to play with fire toward to end of D15 with the retrograde from Kamchatka into Siberia. I think there are 2 reasons for that. One is that the dude is a huge weenie and loves snow and cold. The 2nd is that he showed the NCEP super ensembles and I think, higher pressures bridging across the pole towards Greenland, pushing the PV south. I think he is inferring a -NAO might develop in that scenario. He is going outside of just the model output and inferring what he thinks might happen and why. It wouldn't be surprising to see a -NAO develop out of that would it? There have been occassional hints in models and ensembles. And usually the -NAO isn't that well predicted too far in advance is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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