beanskip Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Re: extended. 12z GFS Days 12 through 16 look awful. No west coast ridging, no blocking, no cold air, no nothing .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Re: extended. 12z GFS Days 12 through 16 look awful. No west coast ridging, no blocking, no cold air, no nothing .... You must have missed Robert's post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Re: extended. 12z GFS Days 12 through 16 look awful. No west coast ridging, no blocking, no cold air, no nothing .... Looks very zonal, but it's impotant to look at other spots to see if the larger scale features are changing which will in turn help us down the road later in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 This is a classic, bowling bowl cutoff, and its taking an exquisite track across the Gulf states...really painful with no cold air. But no big loss, this is the scenario I envision later on with cold air. Actually it's not that warm with this one, just a stale old airmass, probably +4 to +8. It heads across Al to central Carolinas, not quite absorbed with the incoming trough. Good rain maker. I'll take this for now. Anytime I can get some energy in/near the gulf, in Jan., I'll take my chances with the cold air. Get enough chances for timing, and you'll eventually get a hit Meanwhile, it's been a week since rain fell, and probably Sat. before the next chance. This bothers me more than lack of cold air. You expect cold air in Jan. Finding rain is getting pretty hard, despite what model runs may show...and come Sat. the chance isn't too exciting. So it might be the following Thur. for good rains with the cutoff..so tack on another week +. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 If you are someone else would like to show me the blocking or west coast ridging on Days 12-16 of the 12z GFS, I'd love to learn. You must have missed Robert's post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 You're probably right Clubber Lang. Euro just told the GFS it needs to get with a real weather model while flexing it's muscle. I'm glad someone got the Rocky reference, we have to crack a joke or two to stay sane with the horrible winter to date. In all seriousness, I just don't see the cold air being around to produce snow in the SE with the next ULL/storm. The Euro already showed us that for the most part, no reason to believe all the sudden the storm will be laden with cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Here it is at 168, notice the trough near the Gulf of Alaska Hour 288 has ridging building in the Pacific. Notice the trough is gone over the Gulf of Alaska At 300 it's even more pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 It's always just 10 days away. Dude, there's no snowstorm 10 days away. We can't even see fantasy snow this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Canadian brings the wave out of Texas and across the Gulf Coast, but it's weak. Sfc low in NE gulf, but also weak, with very light precip in southern half of GA...but it is a little colder than the GFS at this timeframe. UKMet keeps wanting to hold the energy back toward New Mexico. Not impossible for this to work out, but it's going to be very difficult to get the northern and southern piece to work in tandem for storm and cold air (what's new). I prefer the colder look on the Canadian though, and take my chances with the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Here it is at 168, notice the trough near the Gulf of Alaska Hour 288 has ridging building in the Pacific. Notice the trough is gone over the Gulf of Alaska At 300 it's even more pronounced. Here's what I see in that last image there: Unfavorable: SWs diving into the southwest. Check. SE ridge about to pop. Check. Big vortex way up in Central Canada. Check. +NAO. Check. (Edit, there is some ridging into Greenland, but it looks to be transient, consistent with the season so far.) Pacific ridge too far West. Check. Favorable: AK vortex gone. Check. Still mid January. Check. Until that big Canadian vortex can drop farther to the SE or until we can get a steep +PNA or until we can get a more neutral/-NAO, we're pretty much hosed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Here's what I see in that last image there: Unfavorable: SWs diving into the southwest. Check. SE ridge about to pop. Check. Big vortex way up in Central Canada. Check. +NAO. Check. Pacific ridge too far West. Check. Favorable: AK vortex gone. Check. Still mid January. Check. Until that big Canadian vortex can drop farther to the SE or until we can get a steep +PNA or until we can get a more neutral/-NAO, we're pretty much hosed. Agreed, we need the AO/NAO on our side (central NC/SC and mid-atlantic), until that happens, it's just pipe dreams, we would literally have to time everything perfectly, which is almost impossible. I went back and looked at some events that we (central NC) had in the past during "bad" winter patterns, and all of them had the NAO going negative, at least slightly, for the event, I couldn't find one event with a +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Bring on the Euro play-by-play! I've got a good feeling for some reason. I think the energy is going to be kicked out of Texas a little quicker and even if it doesn't turn into a SE snow that it could set the stage for the next s/w that drops in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Agreed, we need the AO/NAO on our side (central NC/SC and mid-atlantic), until that happens, it's just pipe dreams, we would literally have to time everything perfectly, which is almost impossible. I went back and looked at some events that we (central NC) had in the past during "bad" winter patterns, and all of them had the NAO going negative, at least slightly, for the event, I couldn't find one event with a +NAO. Yep. And maybe the GFS is totally out to lunch at that time frame. It usually is, especially if it shows cold and snow. The 240 map looks cold, but it doesn't last through the end of the run. At some point, you have to figure we'll lock into a cold pattern, if only for a week or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 at 96 hours, the s/w is healthy in the northwest, just ahead of it is the lead wave with some cold entering the plains. A warm up and showers in Tenn. Valley to Gulf coast. By 102 and 108 a very deep vortex in southwest Alaska helps pump a stout west Canada ridge, which sends the northwest wave digging into the Great Basin ( which is even further west than before) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 at 114, the cold front is punching through lower Ohio Valley into Tenn., meanwhile the western wave has split off, tucked away in southern Nevada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 this will be much different. At 120, the ohio valley wave is moving into Midatlantic and a new wave is droppinng into the Midwest. The southwest system is weak, and near eastern Los Angeles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 at 114, the cold front is punching through lower Ohio Valley into Tenn., meanwhile the western wave has split off, tucked away in southern Nevada. It's even further SW, going to be an interesting run, I don't think it will even make it to the east coast by the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Nice cold coming in at 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I think that's yesterday's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I think that's yesterday's run. Maybe, Allan's images aren't date stamped... EDIT: I updated the image... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I think that's yesterday's run. Yeah I think so too. On SV I'm only out to hr 138. Closed 500 low still way out west...Cali border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Fairly strong New England storm. Nw flow behind it, not very cold though. the SW system stays put and buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Big shock you get the GFS behind what the Euro was showing and now the Euro shows a totally different solution. This thing is likely to change until next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Yeah I think so too. On SV I'm only out to hr 138. Closed 500 low still way out west...Cali border. I'm heavily cached here at work so I have no business posting maps from here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I think I'd prefer to have this be held back over the SW to allow the FROPA to sweep through. NH view at 168 FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Yes, was going to make the same comment. Neither one can see that far ahead right now. They're starting to pick up on different changes but can't resolve them this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 It's even further SW, going to be an interesting run, I don't think it will even make it to the east coast by the end of the run. You're probably right. At hr 174 it's just now gettin to the Tx. border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 @180 it looks like that energy is trucking through TX and picking up steam. No ULL yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I'm heavily cached here at work so I have no business posting maps from here! No problem, I can't stay away from the models runs at work either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 my opinion this run drove the sw system too far west and cutoff way too far west, based on looking at the western Canada ridge at the time. But anythings possible. As others said, the models are prone to huge shifts lately...probably because the flow always wants to split in n. Rockies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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