Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 That was a tight thermal packing reminiscent of last year. Unfortunately ... despite my prose often emulating an EXCRUTIATING nerdliness, whereby it would be an easy assumption that must also I have a running roladex in mind of every storm of consequence dating back to 1888, I have no idea which event you are referring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Great news for ski country on the Euro!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 That only happens when he's watching weather-porn... RE the Euro, that is a blue snow thump for much of the interior ...possibly even to I-95. The mid levels are colder than previous systems, such that produces a tighter gradient in the 850mb thermal layout. When the DPVA rides over that - if it did so as the Euro solution has it - than rapid cyclogenesis is an easy assumption due to very upright isentropic lift tapping into evac aloft. The run looks fine within it self in handling those events... "Weather" it verifies or not - heh, we'll see. The Euro has blow a 5 day outlook this year already... Anyway, feedback from rapid cylogen processes would drill the freezing level to the surface with ease in that kind of solution. For those of you thinking this is rain in this Euro solution, you are either forcing that interpretation to be a dh, or you don't know how to interpret synoptic charts. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 So when is DT going to make snowfall map? You guys are bad. geez. Leave the dude alone - everyone's got to make a living. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 wow. hahaha - I knew I'd get a rise out of that. Let the hate rip - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Is anyone else having issues with the raleighwx maps? Mine aren't showing today's 12z run of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 All snow for western MA...rain to heavy snow for central MA and mostly rain for eastern MA...changing over to snow at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Since it won't happen, might as well bask in the beauty of the model output while it's there. Verbatim is significant snow storm for W MA into VT and NH. Nice swath of 6-12", with lollies to 16" I like how the euro shows a ho hum second largest storm of the year, and everyone's pissed in here.. to a point where Kevin(woty ) is just taking shots at ryan and isn't even talking about it.. It's just really funny how bad this winter has hurt the boards pysche.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Just a note ... on the Euro this is NOT a SW flow regime anymore. Because it cuts off the low even further to the southwest, the shortwave ridging is over Texas, giving way to a "relative" trough over the southeast. In addition, the anticyclonic wave breaking over the cutoff is now further west. Positioning the downstream trough favorably over the Great Lakes and Northeast. Meanwhile, the Euro also has made the s/w energy near Newfoundland stronger and further west ... working as our 50/50 low. So the point is that the northward return here is entirely amplitude related and not the result of general SW flow trends. Whether we're actually in a favorable ridge-trough regime or SW flow regime is dependent on that cutoff, which is tricky business. Trend has been to continuously cut it off further southwest. In the 12z Euro position, great. If it were further east ... over Texas for instance, that results in ridging over the southeast ... SW flow. Even further east is then better again, but that solution has become less likely in recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 So when is DT going to make snowfall map? :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Lol on Bobs reference to these weenies, Forky is probably right. Until we get a real change it's status quo. By the way lame Arctic outbreak. Something's amiss at LL of the atmosphere this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Unfortunately ... despite my prose often emulating an EXCRUTIATING nerdliness, whereby it would be an easy assumption that must also I have a running roladex in mind of every storm of consequence dating back to 1888, I have no idea which event you are referring? What I mean is that it reminded me of the many storms that crossed the Cape, but had a very tight thermal packing. It's not as impressive, but compact H5 vort was a trait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 i think the pattern is getting to me. every post is irritating. including my own. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 i think the pattern is getting to me. every post is irritating. including my own. LOL. There's the split PV, -EPO on the 240 if that makes you feel better. LOL, this does suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Lol on Bobs reference to these weenies, Forky is probably right. Until we get a real change it's status quo. By the way lame Arctic outbreak. Something's amiss at LL of the atmosphere this year. Although the core of the coldest air has not yet arrived... (that's tomorrow) I recall mentioning to OSU' last week when the Euro outlined witch's teet with a brassbrazier cold over the area for the time period in question, that without a snow pack and the flow not being directly from the N, one would have to wonder if that wouldn't end up warmer. KTAN "THERE IS THE LOW PROBABILITY THAT A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR THE WORCESTER HILLS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES." We'll see ...but here's the FRH profile over BOS for tomorrow between 12z and 18z: 878886 That equates to -13C at 980, and -12 and -14 at 900 and 800 respectively. When you get that kind of profile in sun at this time of year it means the advection parameters are controlling the thermometer more than diurnal cycle/insolation. -13C at 980mb is probably -10C in the 2-meter, or about 14 or 15F . .. that's cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Lol on Bobs reference to these weenies, Forky is probably right. Until we get a real change it's status quo. By the way lame Arctic outbreak. Something's amiss at LL of the atmosphere this year. 9 degrees here ginxy...core of the arctic air is dropping over WNY and northern NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Although the core of the coldest air has not yet arrived... (that's tomorrow) I recall mentioning to OSU' last week when the Euro outlined witch's teet with a brassbrazier cold over the area for the time period in question, that without a snow pack and the flow not being directly from the N, one would have to wonder if that wouldn't end up warmer. KTAN "THERE IS THE LOW PROBABILITY THAT A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR THE WORCESTER HILLS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES." We'll see The euro did end up being too cold in the low-levels...850s verified pretty well imo....but the surface temps were way too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 9 degrees here ginxy...core of the arctic air is dropping over WNY and northern NY. Yea should be cold tonight. I was just hoping for a fierce type of outbreak like what was modeled 4-5 days ago. This step down stuff just does not cut it for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 9 degrees here ginxy...core of the arctic air is dropping over WNY and northern NY. Yeah I think the core of the arctic air just hasn't made it over to the eastern part of NE yet: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Plenty of time for this to drive up into Quebec it will be rain in montreal before you know it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The euro did end up being too cold in the low-levels...850s verified pretty well imo....but the surface temps were way too cold. Exactly, the LL without decent snow cover in the source region just seem different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The euro did end up being too cold in the low-levels...850s verified pretty well imo....but the surface temps were way too cold. Interesting! yeah, i meant to follow this but lost track... Holiday crap.. anyway, the lacking local cryo could very well have something to do with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 3, 2012 Author Share Posted January 3, 2012 it will be rain in montreal before you know it This forum is like Groundhog Day the movie. Same shi* different day. How many times has there been this setup and it's trended better as we got closer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Yea should be cold tonight. I was just hoping for a fierce type of outbreak like what was modeled 4-5 days ago. This step down stuff just does not cut it for me. tough call here for tonight imo...the ridge crests and winds drop but not sure if we calm out before warm advection starts. I'd probably go about 5 degrees here this evening before warming up overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 tough call here for tonight imo...the ridge crests and winds drop but not sure if we calm out before warm advection starts. I'd probably go about 5 degrees here this evening before warming up overnight. ALB has me getting down to 3 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 3, 2012 Author Share Posted January 3, 2012 In the spirit of the new rules discussion of stuff tonight/Wednesday should be in a different thread. This is for the long term pattern no-change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Exactly, the LL without decent snow cover in the source region just seem different. 7F in MTL staring at cement and brown grass.......i imagine it would be below 0 if there was a semblance of snow.....very modified it appears, especially considering our NW wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 7F in MTL staring at cement and brown grass.......i imagine it would be below 0 if there was a semblance of snow.....very modified it appears, especially considering our NW wind. there's about an inch of snow here...but the source region over Ontario and Quebec is really lacking in snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 In the spirit of the new rules discussion of stuff tonight/Wednesday should be in a different thread. This is for the long term pattern no-change. I started a new discussion for the potential weekend system. http://www.americanw...orm-discussion/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Still, this BTV ob at 2pm would hurt your nuckles on the steering wheel ... 2 PM (19) Jan 03 12.0 (-11.1) -0.9 (-18.3) 30 (1015) N 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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