JamieOber Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 A low of 16.3° here with heavy frost this morning. Hit 15.4 this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Hit 15.4 this am. Jamie, where are you at for snow totals this year? Ive got to be around 15" so far and you have got to be close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Jamie, where are you at for snow totals this year? Ive got to be around 15" so far and you have got to be close to that. Not even close. I got nothing from the last system and 5 in October, plus a few dustings, so 5.4 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Potter, good stuff. What's your take on the Euro? You can see it out to 240 on psu ewall. Well Jamie, here ya go lol Euro at HR 48, it is already game over for east of the Mississippi because the dumb SE ridge is in the center of the GOM and flexing North to South which is like the worst case scenario. It doesn't help to have the trough sitting over the SW US either. It really helps the SE pump up heights as the trough digs out west. HR 72, the PV over central Canada is starting to dig, which encourages the s/w to cut to the great lakes plus a pumped up SE ridge. HR 96, the PV begins to slide further SE just to the north of the Hudson Bay and begins to squash the SE ridge back to SE Florida and Cuba. Notice we are starting to develope a Pacific ridge but it is oriented in a bad setup SW-NE axis allowing any s/w to get burried down around the 4 corners area as the PV begins to rotate through which then cuts it off. Then the tilted Pacific ridge then rotates over and ushers in a dry NW pattern flow by HR 144. The dumb cutoff pumps up the SE ridge just enough to cause any s/w within the NW flow to dig enough to bring warmer air associated with the clipper like systems by HR 168, but then again this dumb cutoff low eventually becomes our Ohio Valley LP as it phases with a s/w coming out of the NW flow. By HR 192 we finally get an Aleutian Low to form which pumps up a slightly favorable west coast ridge, if we could get this ridge to come slightly east we will be in business. The PV is in good position by this time but wish it could be slightly further south to prevent the developing Ohio Valley Low from cutting to far inland. It is clear by HR 216 we have a thread the needle type situation with a possible great snow event coming out of the Ohio Valley. This to me looks like a classic CAD/WAA type event which comes up the western side of the Apps allowing for a heavy front end snowfall to eventually change over to sleet or ZR and to rain for a time. If we could get that SE ridge to be slightly weaker we could be talking about a big event according to the Euro. My best guess at the moment eventhough it is still a ways out would be your typical north of I-80 storm with mixing all the way up to the PA/NY boarder eventually. I say this because of the La Nina and with the SE ridge pumping warm air from the south, it is going to be difficult to stay all snow with a LP approaching from the Ohio Valley. I'd say chances are greater for a sleet/ ZR to primarily rain event rather than a Snow to primarily frozen mix event especially south of I-80 at this time. What is everyone else's opinion?? Any Met agree with my assessment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Well Jamie, here ya go lol Euro at HR 48, it is already game over for east of the Mississippi because the dumb SE ridge is in the center of the GOM and flexing North to South which is like the worst case scenario. It doesn't help to have the trough sitting over the SW US either. It really helps the SE pump up heights as the trough digs out west. HR 72, the PV over central Canada is starting to dig, which encourages the s/w to cut to the great lakes plus a pumped up SE ridge. HR 96, the PV begins to slide further SE just to the north of the Hudson Bay and begins to squash the SE ridge back to SE Florida and Cuba. Notice we are starting to develope a Pacific ridge but it is oriented in a bad setup SW-NE axis allowing any s/w to get burried down around the 4 corners area as the PV begins to rotate through which then cuts it off. Then the tilted Pacific ridge then rotates over and ushers in a dry NW pattern flow by HR 144. The dumb cutoff pumps up the SE ridge just enough to cause any s/w within the NW flow to dig enough to bring warmer air associated with the clipper like systems by HR 168, but then again this dumb cutoff low eventually becomes our Ohio Valley LP By HR 192 we finally get an Aleutian Low to form which pumps up a slightly favorable west coast ridge, if we could get this ridge to come slightly east we will be in business. The PV is in good position by this time but wish it could be slightly further south to prevent the developing Ohio Valley Low from cutting to far inland. It is clear by HR 216 we have a thread the needle type situation with a possible great snow event coming out of the Ohio Valley. This to me looks like a classic CAD/WAA type event which comes up the western side of the Apps allowing for a heavy front end snowfall to eventually change over to sleet or ZR and to rain for a time. If we could get that SE ridge to be slightly weaker we could be talking about a big event according to the Euro. My best guess at the moment eventhough it is still a ways out would be your typical north of I-80 storm with mixing all the way up to the PA/NY boarder eventually. I say this because of the La Nina and with the SE ridge pumping warm air from the south, it is going to be difficult to stay all snow with a LP approaching from the Ohio Valley. What is everyone else's opinion?? Any Met agree with my assessment? I think the 216+ situation is something to watch also. But I sure ain't no Met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I think the 216+ situation is something to watch also. But I sure ain't no Met. Yeah I agree. I'd say chances are greater for a sleet/ ZR to primarily rain event rather than a snow to primarily frozen mix event especially south of I-80 at this time. Eventually the GFS deals with the cuttoff too. The first one is sent up through the lakes around HR 180, the 2nd cuttoff around HR 288 is eventually an Ohio Valley LP. I'm not a Met either lol but it does help to have 2 years worth of a Meteorology degree from Penn St. I shouldn't have switched majors but I was worried about the job market. Figured Energy was a much better career choice just simply because of the job opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Yeah I agree. I'd say chances are greater for a sleet/ ZR to primarily rain event rather than a snow to primarily frozen mix event especially south of I-80 at this time. Eventually the GFS deals with the cuttoff too. The first one is sent up through the lakes around HR 180, the 2nd cuttoff around HR 288 is eventually an Ohio Valley LP. I'm not a Met either lol but it does help to have 2 years worth of a Meteorology degree from Penn St. I shouldn't have switched majors but I was worried about the job market. Figured Energy was a much better career choice just simply because of the job opportunities. Yeah, energy would be a better career choice especially now. Noted that the Euro is hinting at a freezing drizzle situation Thursday am for true central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Already cracked one 16" water main in the county this morning. The first of several I assume this week. I swear the contractors leave the pipes just above the frost line so they can get job bids to repair those lines. Also 16"...wow. My dad works for Phila. Water Department and has shown me footage of 16" pipes going before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 Already a few degrees below the forecast low here, sitting at 20.3° at the moment. Looks like three nights in a row in the teens...usually we have some snowcover to accompany that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Already a few degrees below the forecast low here, sitting at 20.3° at the moment. Looks like three nights in a row in the teens...usually we have some snowcover to accompany that. Yeah, I noticed that and I called in to CTP NWS to report some coop Obs. Already down to 17°F with a forecast low of 20°F. They really didn't give any acknowledgement to the reports. Normally when I report in with a number lower than forecasted lows they will change the forecast with the next update. As of the last half hour they haven't changed and kept it at 20°F. It kind of infuriates me when they do that, it is as if they don't care about their coop observers sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 That's horrible potterwx...CTP is annoying to me in general but I can't put a finger on one thing in particular. I much prefer LWX. I've been to both offices and LWX just seemed like a much "friendlier" atmosphere/ public face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 0z models are pretty blah tonight. The 18-20th timeframe after this weeks GLC now looks mainly dry before it seems we deal with another crappy storm. Thats gettin pretty far out though. I did note that all models had a wave that is shunted just south of PA come through approx Dec 17-18th right after the GLC. GFS and Nogaps looked the furthest north with precip (unsure of euro precip yet). In fact I think the Nogaps is the most robust by a hair and def a good bit slower. Maybe could work a lil bit of northern trend magic or models may just come up with something completely different. Hey its something.. haha. GFS Nogaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 That's horrible potterwx...CTP is annoying to me in general but I can't put a finger on one thing in particular. I much prefer LWX. I've been to both offices and LWX just seemed like a much "friendlier" atmosphere/ public face. Yeah, I'm not sure why CTP acts the way they do sometimes. In general when I call sometimes they act like they get annoyed by callers calling in. It isn't like I call in all the time, maybe three times a month if that. It is usually for a good reason like tonight being 6 degrees lower than predicted temp or a rogue lake effect shower that puts down a couple more inches than forecasted. I figure it would help the offices better by getting live data. Lol it is almost as if they try to annoy me like, just a half hour ago they actually bumped up the forecast low for tonight to 21°F while I still sit at a cold 15.6°F temp and continuing to cool. If they are computer generate forecast, I guess I could understand, but still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 We dropped to 16.7° this morning with another very heavy frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Yeah, I'm not sure why CTP acts the way they do sometimes. In general when I call sometimes they act like they get annoyed by callers calling in. It isn't like I call in all the time, maybe three times a month if that. It is usually for a good reason like tonight being 6 degrees lower than predicted temp or a rogue lake effect shower that puts down a couple more inches than forecasted. I figure it would help the offices better by getting live data. Lol it is almost as if they try to annoy me like, just a half hour ago they actually bumped up the forecast low for tonight to 21°F while I still sit at a cold 15.6°F temp and continuing to cool. If they are computer generate forecast, I guess I could understand, but still I did some summer work, not at CTP but another nws office a couple years ago, and they receive many calls daily. They would get calls during large severe weather outbreaks from people who wanted to "report dark clouds and it looks like it may start to rain here." Some callers would have a disability, so they would continuously call back-to-back with the same question. I'm sure CTP gets these calls as well. I can't speak for CTP, but I wouldn't take offense if they came off a little annoyed. I'm sure they stay updated with mesonet obs as well so they probably knew temperatures were dipping down cooler than expected. Best bet would be to stick with spotter guidelines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 My next pick for snow in HBG: January 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I did some summer work, not at CTP but another nws office a couple years ago, and they receive many calls daily. They would get calls during large severe weather outbreaks from people who wanted to "report dark clouds and it looks like it may start to rain here." Some callers would have a disability, so they would continuously call back-to-back with the same question. I'm sure CTP gets these calls as well. I can't speak for CTP, but I wouldn't take offense if they came off a little annoyed. I'm sure they stay updated with mesonet obs as well so they probably knew temperatures were dipping down cooler than expected. Best bet would be to stick with spotter guidelines. . Got to 17.1, also 3rd consecutive teens morning. When I worked at Accuwx, my email was the only one on the site so I would get a lot of,well, interesting email. One of the best was from a mentally challenged guy in Clinton County, he would send me ops and a "good job!" If the forcast was good. If it was a bust then he'd say better luck next time or whatever. I miss him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 MAG, Euro apparently looked interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 12Z GFS....not too bad. The Christmas Week storm is further south, cold for Christmas. Potter gets lake effect love. to paraphrase the Gang from Always Sunny in Philadelphia - ho ho ho bitches: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Ill play along...next 2-3+" snowfall in CPA...January 14-18th time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Top of Mt. Nittany still snow covered. They had to have gotten 4-6". Tussey looked like they were making snow this weekend, but rain later this week won't help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Top of Mt. Nittany still snow covered. They had to have gotten 4-6". Tussey looked like they were making snow this weekend, but rain later this week won't help. There's snow around in Park Forest too. It's been a pretty cold last several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Where is Zak to keep track of the dates, is he still burnt out from the last one?? I'll take January 7th ( my B-day)for my date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Top of Mt. Nittany still snow covered. They had to have gotten 4-6". Tussey looked like they were making snow this weekend, but rain later this week won't help. When I was on Tussey over the weekend (across from the barrens region) there was prolly about 2 inches or so of the plaster variety snow lingering around. So further north prolly did see at least a couple more. Centre region was able to salvage some snow because the changeover managed to occur right at about the time the best forcing was still in the area. 12z European has the Christmas week storm off to the lakes this go around, and the lower lakes at that.. so I'm sure you guys would be comforted to know that a lower lakes track probably wouldn't short change us too much on the rainfall. GFS and Canadian are colder and seemingly less robust on the storm. Actually the Canadian hardly has an established low pressure making it here. So lots of difference in opinion right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Don't look now but a Christmas storm of Miller B type variety is being depicted in the GFS Op runs and Euro pregame is the same identical set up as the GFS!!, decent Ens support. This will have to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I'm sticking with my original pick. 12/24 for the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Not showing up on the models at the moment but take a look into America's attice (that'd be Canada - eh?) The Arctic and Pac jets reconverges at or just north of the northern stream system moving across? (hr 240 both Euro and GFS) Does that not spell HP building into that region? That would surpress tendencies for the storms to cut inland - no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Not showing up on the models at the moment but take a look into America's attice (that'd be Canada - eh?) The Arctic and Pac jets reconverges at or just north of the northern stream system moving across? (hr 240 both Euro and GFS) Does that not spell HP building into that region? That would surpress tendencies for the storms to cut inland - no? I don't have time to show the maps now, but there's actually a good bit of support for a coastal storm or Miller B around Christmas Eve. I'll post more on this tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 When I was on Tussey over the weekend (across from the barrens region) there was prolly about 2 inches or so of the plaster variety snow lingering around. So further north prolly did see at least a couple more. Centre region was able to salvage some snow because the changeover managed to occur right at about the time the best forcing was still in the area. 12z European has the Christmas week storm off to the lakes this go around, and the lower lakes at that.. so I'm sure you guys would be comforted to know that a lower lakes track probably wouldn't short change us too much on the rainfall. GFS and Canadian are colder and seemingly less robust on the storm. Actually the Canadian hardly has an established low pressure making it here. So lots of difference in opinion right now. Are you seeing any shot at that wave Fri night/Sat coming further north? Doesn't seem likely. The Christmas week stuff is interesting....at least it's something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Don't look now but a Christmas storm of Miller B type variety is being depicted in the GFS Op runs and Euro pregame is the same identical set up as the GFS!!, decent Ens support. This will have to be watched. I am going to New Waterford OH, which is just south of Youngstown, for Xmas Eve. Missed two storms due to trips to my in-laws, so add that to the ensembles support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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