dryslot Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Even if it stayed cold it would melt. It's still quite early. Despite the ridge at least the first day appears not much above normal...in fact perhaps low level cold keeps it AOB normal for 1 day before a broader warmth comes in. Sure would, Just the fact its still november and there is no frozen ground to speak of, A lot would go away even if it was cold out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I see some are still en route to the other side of the rainbow in seach of that elusive inch of snow...good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 New HRRR keeps the trend of weakening precip and trending more SE Yup, now shows no accumulation in spots and a trace in other spots AWOT It was wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 BTW HRRR continues to back off. Classic RUC product. Always starts out nw and then goes se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I see some are still en route to the other side of the rainbow in seach of that elusive inch of snow...good luck. Pretty much been a reach all along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Classic RUC product. Always starts out nw and then goes se. I wonder if Kevin's out tuning up is snow blower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Pretty much been a reach all along I know...I don't see the significance of a MET throwing out the off chance of an inch to cover his azz, in an AFD.....may as well because its NDB, anyway....why not play it safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Well, BOX has lowered my pops to 20%. May not even see a flake..... 39.3/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 NAM did a good job with this system today, current radar down in Jersey shows heavier echoes exiting central jersey stage right, still hopeful the cape can get a period of snow tonight. Drizzle 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Classic RUC product. Always starts out nw and then goes se. Worth noting for future storms. Regular RUC has stayed the course and walks the line around the NAM of 12z with a more intense band isolated to E and SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 I know...I don't see the significance of a MET throwing out the off chance of an inch to cover his azz, in an AFD.....may as well because its NDB, anyway....why not play it safe. I would be fine if someone said the possibility of a coating to an inch..it's possible a narrow area could get it. It's the moisture that the GFS and earlier HRRR runs had so far west, that were suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 LOL, it's good now, but look what it takes. With that +NAO..you need the perfect timing from keeping it coming into Kevin's fanny. As usual, it's sort of in la la land at this point. Something to watch I guess. meteorologically I'd enjoy that....otherwise I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 BTW for Kev, whoever is writing the AFD's just climbed back up off the cliff. BELIEVE OVER THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL...CAA CONTINUES ALOFT...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WET SNOW FLURRIES MAY OCCUR STARTING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS BOS/PVD CORRIDOR. TIMING FOR SNOW TRANSITION WILL MOST LIKELY BE AROUND 21Z OR AFTERWORDS.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I would be fine if someone said the possibility of a coating to an inch..it's possible a narrow area could get it. It's the moisture that the GFS and earlier HRRR runs had so far west, that were suspect. Or we could have simply followed the euro from yesterday up until now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I would be fine if someone said the possibility of a coating to an inch..it's possible a narrow area could get it. It's the moisture that the GFS and earlier HRRR runs had so far west, that were suspect. Exactly. I don't think those runs warranted RAD hallucinations and hourly vigils, but to each their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Or we could have simply followed the euro from yesterday up until now The EURO was as far SE as the others were NW. It went from about .05 to .15" here in one run for the period around 21-0z. Again all kind of a moot point, but it's the typical pattern we see with all the models. The only question that remains is whether or not there will be a band of .25 to .5" of precip across SE MA somewhere. NAM said yes, RUC still says yes, others not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Back to this thread title. Euro op d10 seems to want to change the orientation a bit of the AK vortex. That appears to mitigate torchiness and may be helpful in allowing NAO to have more influence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 Exactly. I don't think those runs warranted RAD hallucinations and hourly vigils, but to each their own. It's going to be a long winter if this pattern keeps up. In the mean time, anyone have an Oregon Scientific thermometer? I can't get mine to work and I think the outside sensor got corroded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 JI's Basement's model just printed out 6-10 for Central MASS to CT for next week. Nice to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Exactly. I don't think those runs warranted RAD hallucinations and hourly vigils, but to each their own. What else is there to talk about? 6-7 day Euro forecasts or the overall less than favorable pattern for the next 3-4 weeks? Even 1/2 of snow is a big deal down here pre Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 The EURO was as far SE as the others were NW. It went from about .05 to .15" here in one run for the period around 21-0z. Again all kind of a moot point, but it's the typical pattern we see with all the models. The only question that remains is whether or not there will be a band of .25 to .5" of precip across SE MA somewhere. NAM said yes, RUC still says yes, others not so much. Usually the models compromise like that. In other words Euro nudges nw and GFS se...but sometimes a model can "trend" more towards the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 JI's Basement's model just printed out 6-10 for Central MASS to CT for next week. Nice to look at His model is weak, wait til I get mine oiled up tonight for the 00z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Back to this thread title. Euro op d10 seems to want to change the orientation a bit of the AK vortex. That appears to mitigate torchiness and may be helpful in allowing NAO to have more influence? Actually...a big pattern change seems to be starting albeit not overnight. Hts are dramatically higher east of the Caspian and troffiness over eastern Asia with the wave pattern around the NHEM getting scrambled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 What else is there to talk about? 6-7 day Euro forecasts or the overall less than favorable pattern for the next 3-4 weeks? Even 1/2 of snow is a big deal down here pre Thanksgiving. I'm not chastizing you, or anyone else for that matter, but merely offering my perspective. Some have a more profound interest in met than I and that is fine.....not to mention that se MA has a better shot than I do in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Usually the models compromise like that. In other words Euro nudges nw and GFS se...but sometimes a model can "trend" more towards the other. It's just more obvious to all of us that didn't have the euro access previously. Very predictable so far. Can see the banding is about to setup, going to rock and roll in terms of QPF in a tight band for the netx 5-8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 that's really threading the needle middle of next week. tuesday still looking like a pretty cold day though. kind of useless cold but given the overall regime daytime temps will be solidly below average i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Actually...a big pattern change seems to be starting albeit not overnight. Hts are dramatically higher east of the Caspian and troffiness over eastern Asia with the wave pattern around the NHEM getting scrambled. LOL and not even Dec, look at that Arctic blast in the heartland, nice. Man the panic is really funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 that's really threading the needle middle of next week. tuesday still looking like a pretty cold day though. kind of useless cold but given the overall regime daytime temps will be solidly below average i think. 1980's style, baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I know...I don't see the significance of a MET throwing out the off chance of an inch to cover his azz, in an AFD.....may as well because its NDB, anyway....why not play it safe. Flurries even a dusting would have sufficed, You can always go up if its warranted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 it's too bad the low levels are so mild. fast forward another couple of weeks and some spots would probably be in line for a few inches of snow this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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