TheTrials Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 Agreed. I still think the pieces are falling into place for a potentially memorable pattern all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 Wall to wall sunshine and we stayed in the 40s all day. Hopefully this warm spell comes and goes quick. This weather is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 The negative PNA is something that is likely to be prevalent most of the winter, given the moderate nina and strong -PDO. However, in times of stronger blocking/-NAO, especially if we can get an Alaskan block connecting over the top, will help to mute the PNA signal. FYI, we had a -PNA during the Boxing day blizzard last winter. Trough was over the Pac NW w/ a monster ridge in the nern plains/sern canada, amplifying the eastern short wave. The Northeast US can do fine cold/snow wise in a -PNA; the Southeast US is a different story. With that said, I expect the PNA to surge positive for a time in December, when I think the -NAO will be strongest. The cool thing about the Boxing day blizzard was that while the PNA was still slightly negative during the storm, the heights rose just enough to get close to the 12+ inch snowstorm composite for NYC. Composite of 18 1 foot or greater snow events for NYC 12/26/10 Daily PNA 2010 12 21 -2.1312010 12 22 -1.9612010 12 23 -1.6302010 12 24 -1.0042010 12 25 -0.4562010 12 26 -0.2842010 12 27 -0.117 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 The negative PNA is something that is likely to be prevalent most of the winter, given the moderate nina and strong -PDO. However, in times of stronger blocking/-NAO, especially if we can get an Alaskan block connecting over the top, will help to mute the PNA signal. FYI, we had a -PNA during the Boxing day blizzard last winter. Trough was over the Pac NW w/ a monster ridge in the nern plains/sern canada, amplifying the eastern short wave. The Northeast US can do fine cold/snow wise in a -PNA; the Southeast US is a different story. With that said, I expect the PNA to surge positive for a time in December, when I think the -NAO will be strongest. You can do well with a -PNA in the right setup, its significantly harder to get KU type events but you can still get big snow events, 1994 had a -PNA in February during both events but of course the AO and EPO were in the correct phases. December 2010 and December 1984 both had a very negative PNA but the 2 months were drastically different because in 2010 the AO was off the charts negative and the opposite in 1984. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 You can do well with a -PNA in the right setup, its significantly harder to get KU type events but you can still get big snow events, 1994 had a -PNA in February during both events but of course the AO and EPO were in the correct phases. December 2010 and December 1984 both had a very negative PNA but the 2 months were drastically different because in 2010 the AO was off the charts negative and the opposite in 1984. don't fear the -PNA, as long as you are on the right side of the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 don't fear the -PNA, as long as you are on the right side of the gradient. This is the setup you want. I think we might be able to sneak one in around here...... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNA168.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 This is the setup you want. I think we might be able to sneak one in around here...... http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNA168.gif I am totally content with what I have been seeing in the long range. I think we get a surprise accumulation around here around hour 144 Hey John, we should catch up and put the past behind us, its been too long IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 I am totally content with what I have been seeing in the long range. I think we get a surprise accumulation around here around hour 144 Hey John, we should catch up and put the past behind us, its been too long IMHO. Agreed. PM with details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Im camping at turkey swamp park right now, it's 28 out and I'm loving it. This a great way to start our little nov heat wave. My link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Novembers before our snowiest winters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 If anyone has WXrisk on their facebook list, DT did a lengthy writeup on the current pattern which explains its going to be a slow progression out of it but some pieces will start coming together in the next 10 days. Overall this reminds me of November 2003 right now, we were stuck in a somewhat similar pattern where we needed some large scale changes in the pattern over the Pacific and Asia to get things going, it took til almost December 1st to break out of it in 2003, it may be similar now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Pacific warming event going wild the past few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Widespread frost out there this morning 4 miles due east of LGA where they recorded a low of 41 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 33 and clear this morning with frost... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 If anyone has WXrisk on their facebook list, DT did a lengthy writeup on the current pattern which explains its going to be a slow progression out of it but some pieces will start coming together in the next 10 days. Overall this reminds me of November 2003 right now, we were stuck in a somewhat similar pattern where we needed some large scale changes in the pattern over the Pacific and Asia to get things going, it took til almost December 1st to break out of it in 2003, it may be similar now as well. 2003-2004 was a good winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 33 and clear this morning with frost... 31 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Down to 24 F this morning at Upton; record for the date is 19 F set in 1967....Westhampton fell to 21 F this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 2003-2004 was a good winter Some representative snowfall totals from 2003-04: Washington D.C. (Reagan): 12.4 inches Atlantic City: 16.9 inches Washington D.C. (Dulles): 17.4 inches Philadelphia: 17.8 inches Baltimore (BWI): 18.3 inches Boston (Logan): 39.4 inches NYC Central Park: 42.6 inches BNL Upton: 60.2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 I can't see NYC pulling in less than 50 this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 I can't see NYC pulling in less than 50 this winter. FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 2011-2012: snowfall totals through November 5, 2011: Newark: 5.2" Bridgeport 4.0" NYC Central Park: 2.9" LaGuardia 1.7" JFK: 1.5" Islip: 0.3" Upton:: 0.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 2011-2012: snowfall totals through November 5, 2011: Newark: 5.2" Bridgeport 4.0" NYC Central Park: 2.9" LaGuardia 1.7" JFK: 1.5" Islip: 0.3" Upton:: 0.2" Is that like 20000% above normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Is that like 20000% above normal? I think based on the 30 year avgs...the normal through Nov 5 is 0.0"....so they would all be infinite....if it were 0.1"...CPK would be at 2900% of normal.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Some representative snowfall totals from 2003-04: Washington D.C. (Reagan): 12.4 inches Atlantic City: 16.9 inches Washington D.C. (Dulles): 17.4 inches Philadelphia: 17.8 inches Baltimore (BWI): 18.3 inches Boston (Logan): 39.4 inches NYC Central Park: 42.6 inches BNL Upton: 60.2 inches That was a nyc metro winter ......sne was pretty much stuck in the artic chill......never forget how cold that winter was. We also had one of my favorite events that winter, the super clipper. Snow from a clipper with ratio of 50-1. Amazing event, doubt I ever see those kinds of ratios around here again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 2011-2012: snowfall totals through November 5, 2011: Newark: 5.2" Bridgeport 4.0" NYC Central Park: 2.9" LaGuardia 1.7" JFK: 1.5" Islip: 0.3" Upton:: 0.2" Look foward to ur updates and thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 That was a nyc metro winter ......sne was pretty much stuck in the artic chill......never forget how cold that winter was. We also had one of my favorite events that winter, the super clipper. Snow from a clipper with ratio of 50-1. Amazing event, doubt I ever see those kinds of ratios around here again. yeah because we haven't seen a tornado, earthquake, an october snow storm, and a dozen other rare events around here. Saying we won't see something like that again is just asking to be proven wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Widespread frost out there this morning 4 miles due east of LGA where they recorded a low of 41 lol. really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 yeah because we haven't seen a tornado, earthquake, an october snow storm, and a dozen other rare events around here. Saying we won't see something like that again is just asking to be proven wrong. So its better to call for big storms and single digit temps at the end of the month 4dvar? Nice uber Nina last year, torch all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 So its better to call for big storms and single digit temps at the end of the month 4dvar? Nice uber Nina last year, torch all winter. LOLZ. The end of the month looks good for a storm and cold. I am saying everything is upside down in the weather world, so saying we can't see 50-1 ratios is basically the same as saying we won't see record blocking again or the people who said it can't snow in November in Central park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 LOLZ. The end of the month looks good for a storm and cold. II am saying everything is upside down in the weather world, so saying we can't see 50-1 ratios is basically the same as saying we won't see record blocking again or the people who said it can't snow in November in Central park. I understand, just feel november snows is more of a possibility then those high ratios. 20-1 is a great achievement around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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