BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 DO NOT trust back end precip on the NAM.....it sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 DO NOT trust back end precip on the NAM.....it sucks. How come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 at 72 hrs. we're around 40-42 at the surface per the map posted above Yep, it looks increasingly like the boundary layer temps might kill our chances for seeing flakes unless they are super sloppy ones. It now doesn't even look like the western suburbs will see any freezing rain at onset because the precipitation is so cloesly associated with the front that it gets in too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 How come? Because its terrible when realizing when the air has squeezed out all the moisture it can handle...In my opinion I dont see really any accumulating back end snows in the cards with this system as when temps go below freezing most of the moisture will likely be out of the picture when Central MD is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 What I am amazed by what this is showing for the kpit area. Both the gfs and nam show a 4-8 type event and I don't ever remember a time whee a primary took this track and there was a decent storm... Just a really weird set up IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Because its terrible when realizing when the air has squeezed out all the moisture it can handle...In my opinion I dont see really any accumulating back end snows in the cards with this system as when temps go below freezing most of the moisture will likely be out of the picture when Central MD is concerned. They do happen with setups like this if there is a lot of anergy at the base of the troff and the first low is week. However they are very difficult to predict until 48hrs out and they are rarely more than a couple inches, and the rapid freeze can cause hell on the roads. like 3/8/2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 What I am amazed by what this is showing for the kpit area. Both the gfs and nam show a 4-8 type event and I don't ever remember a time whee a primary took this track and there was a decent storm... Just a really weird set up IMO. I dont think its that wierd...the secondary takes over just in time to give you guys a decent event, plus southwest winds arent enough to warm you guys all that much..youll get decent snowfall there..plus some lake effect making in down to you later in the week probably..I think Pitt may have a decent winter this year..95 corridor, not so much..Interior winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 What I am amazed by what this is showing for the kpit area. Both the gfs and nam show a 4-8 type event and I don't ever remember a time whee a primary took this track and there was a decent storm... Just a really weird set up IMO. It's a really convoluted pattern. Its fun to watch play out though... Part of me still believes we could get a better solution for the EC even if it is not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 They do happen with setups like this if there is a lot of anergy at the base of the troff and the first low is week. However they are very difficult to predict until 48hrs out and they are rarely more than a couple inches, and the rapid freeze can cause hell on the roads. like 3/8/2005. Yes I agree with the rapid freezes..I think with wet roadways, and dropping temps, roads could become somwhat dicey monday, but Im sorry I dont trust the back end snows..Ive been living here in Baltimore all My life and I can probably count on one hand how many times we have received accumulating back end snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Yes I agree with the rapid freezes..I think with wet roadways, and dropping temps, roads could become somwhat dicey monday, but Im sorry I dont trust the back end snows..Ive been living here in Baltimore all My life and I can probably count on one hand how many times we have received accumulating back end snows. No probably not for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The storm is moving hundreds of miles every 6 hours and people are quibbling over surface temps. No kidding. Do you remember anything like this? I don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 It's a really convoluted pattern. Its fun to watch play out though... Part of me still believes we could get a better solution for the EC even if it is not likely. Who knows. The way this has gone all the models could shift to the uk solution or end up with something different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I dont think its that wierd...the secondary takes over just in time to give you guys a decent event, plus southwest winds arent enough to warm you guys all that much..youll get decent snowfall there..plus some lake effect making in down to you later in the week probably..I think Pitt may have a decent winter this year..95 corridor, not so much..Interior winter. seconday formation isnt that weird but this setup is not very common i dont think.. i can't recall seeing much similar though i've probably only been paying close attention a few yrs and may have selective memory. the path of the 500 energy and intensity of the trough is pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 seconday formation isnt that weird but this setup is not very common i dont think.. i can't recall seeing much similar though i've probably only been paying close attention a few yrs and may have selective memory. the path of the 500 energy and intensity of the trough is pretty crazy. Ill admit its a bit odd to see a possible primary near Detroit and a secondary near VA Beach or Richmond, But its a La Nina winter..Anything goes. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Don't see much difference so far between 0z NAM and 0z GFS at 24 hrs on h5... perhaps Pacific ridge is a bit higher on the GFS -- but not by much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 seconday formation isnt that weird but this setup is not very common i dont think.. i can't recall seeing much similar though i've probably only been paying close attention a few yrs and may have selective memory. the path of the 500 energy and intensity of the trough is pretty crazy. I don't think Ive ever seen it on models. Not saying it hasn't been there, but I just don't remember a set up like this and how models are literally hundreds of miles apart and shifting wildly every other run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I don't think Ive ever seen it on models. Not saying it hasn't been there, but I just don't remember a set up like this and how models are literally hundreds of miles apart and shifting wildly every other run. I agree. Crazy changes every 6 hours. The Euro has held its ground for the past few runs. But who knows if its right. I would hate to be a Met for western PA. Tough to make a forecast for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 With the trof going negative the way it is, uvv would be monstrous. Decent snow would fall from WVA/VA mtns on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I don't think Ive ever seen it on models. Not saying it hasn't been there, but I just don't remember a set up like this and how models are literally hundreds of miles apart and shifting wildly every other run. it seems the models have trouble figuring out which part of the vorticity to key in on. you've got like 4-6 really intense vorts in a string. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 0z NAM had CLOSED 500h vort in C MN... 0z GFS has the 500h vort OPEN in N IA...-- this is at 42 hrs btw when looking at both models side by side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I agree. Crazy changes every 6 hours. The Euro has held its ground for the past few runs. But who knows if its right. I would hate to be a Met for western PA. Tough to make a forecast for that area. If you are a met here I would say 1-8 at this point. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 0z NAM had CLOSED 500h vort in C MN... 0z GFS has the 500h vort OPEN in N IA...-- this is at 42 hrs btw when looking at both models side by side ))z show more space between the northern vortmaxand the southern vortmax compared to 18z. Think there will be a stronger post frontal wave on this run. It just may happen further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 00z UKMET, 72 hour: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xwx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 With the trof going negative the way it is, uvv would be monstrous. Decent snow would fall from WVA/VA mtns on north. pcp is very swallow at 72......but yes the 700mb looks decent.... xwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 So the uk is still south... However itdoes seem to be coming north every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 One thing for sure...it looks like MSP is going to get rocked with a decent snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 One thing for sure...it looks like MSP is going to get rocked with a decent snowstorm. Don't forget central Wisconsin! I find it unbelievable that yesterday afternoon, they had no concern at all in this storm and now they are the center of accumulation for the primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 One thing for sure...it looks like MSP is going to get rocked with a decent snowstorm. the high and low are even closer together this run in that region.. blizz. this run looks colder a little thru 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 00z UKMET, 72 hour: Compare: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Yeah... the differences in the h5 are kinda big between the 0z NAM and the 0z GFS after 36... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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