stormtracker Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 UK and GFS are a few hundred miles apart. Geez....you would think as we get closer things would settle down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 What kills us is the GFS phases with the PV too soon. speeds things up and yanks the upper support to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Temp drop almost 15 to 20 F between 66 and 72hr (Low 40s at 66hr, Upper 20s at 72hr) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Yeah... the differences in the h5 are kinda big between the 0z NAM and the 0z GFS after 36... Yeah, well the NAM doesn't get into it's deadly range until 6 hours before the event..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I think most of us know we're not gonna get snow from this. The thing that keeps me interested is the uncertainty...there's a new solution every 6 hours with this thing. I think those in MSP and close by can relax and enjoy, but a lot of folks in the interior are probably on pins and needles with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 still looks like bl temps are an issue for any snow to finish around here. that's one rockin' 850 low on the models lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 3 certainties in life...... death, taxes, and LES after a big hit or near miss!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Compare: so LEK, which one do you buy? if either...and why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The GFS certainly is interesting though as it does give back end snows for Baltimore, but I dont trust it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 still looks like bl temps are an issue for any snow to finish around here. that's one rockin' 850 low on the models lately. They are an issue but verbatim, the GFS does give us back end snows here in Maryland at hour 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 They are an issue but verbatim, the GFS does give us back end snows here in Maryland at hour 72 72 hours is previous 6 hours (the precip u see has already fallen).. There is NO precip left after hour 72. You are misreading the maps. Anything after hour 72 would be snow, but there is nothing left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The gfs is trying to create some sort of overrunning event at Day 7 but the shortwave gets shredded. Not going to get anything with that annoying GOA low literally just spinning around for days on end. The Atlantic is looking great as always while the Pacific looks like a steaming pile of you-know-what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 so LEK, which one do you buy? if either...and why Well...it's not an either or. Generally, we have a "tighter" energy packet within a stream, that consolidates upon amplification....In this case, it would appear that we will have a diffuse vorticity advection channel, with maxima within...throw in the variance the models depict the PV and it's configuration, and you still have a large spread. I'd go with something a blend at this point of the UK, GFS and Euro.....Primary to about L. Erie, then a transfer somewhere between HSE and Delmarva....cutting up around ALB, with weak to modest strengthening up to BTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 72 hours is previous 6 hours (the precip u see has already fallen).. There is NO precip left after hour 72. You are misreading the maps. Anything after hour 72 would be snow, but there is nothing left. Im not saying its much, but im looking at it correctly, look... Precip at 72 Precip type at 72 Even ifthe precip isnt left at 72 you can clearly see the snow line is all the way to the coast at 72 so I suspect there is at least a LITTLE snow before 72, not saying it would accumulate but there would probably be some flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The gfs is trying to create some sort of overrunning event at Day 7 but the shortwave gets shredded. Not going to get anything with that annoying GOA low literally just spinning around for days on end. The Atlantic is looking great as always while the Pacific looks like a steaming pile of you-know-what. GFS is showing freezing rain in VA from that weak wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Well...it's not an either or. Generally, we have a "tighter" energy packet within a stream, that consolidates upon amplification....In this case, it would appear that we will have a diffuse vorticity advection channel, with maxima within...throw in the variance the models depict the PV and it's configuration, and you still have a large spread. I'd go with something a blend at this point of the UK, GFS and Euro.....Primary to about L. Erie, then a transfer somewhere between HSE and Delmarva....cutting up around ALB, with weak to modest strengthening up to BTV. damn, I was hopin you'd be all over the ukie...lol thnx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 damn, I was hopin you'd be all over the ukie...lol thnx Maybe that run will pull JB out of his cave Did you see how fast the GFS changes us over to snow? I'm always a little skeptical with these fronts that changeover to snow...Doesnt work out often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 this map is just plain ugly,looks like alot of this is lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 GFS gets rid of the GOA Low toward end of the run but takes another cutter to do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 72 hours is previous 6 hours (the precip u see has already fallen).. There is NO precip left after hour 72. You are misreading the maps. Anything after hour 72 would be snow, but there is nothing left. This is what falls between 69 and 72 which is when it gets cold enough. On the frame before only west of DC seems to get in on any frozen qpf and even that is borderline. This is just concerning the big cities of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 looks like another storm we spend hours and hours watching hoping for something good and end up with squat diddly.lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 GFS gets rid of the GOA Low toward end of the run but takes another cutter to do it It would be almost impossible for a storm to cut in what the gfs depicts in the long range due to the massive block and strong high pressure over southeastern Canada. Either the low self destructs or it transfers to a secondary further east. Not like it matters but just don't believe everything the model tells you. Just because it shows a cutter, doesn't mean it would be a cutter in reality or vice versa with a coastal storm (if it ever shows one of those in the long range). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 It would be almost impossible for a storm to cut in what the gfs depicts in the long range due to the massive block and strong high pressure over southeastern Canada. Either the low self destructs or it transfers to a secondary further east. Not like it matters but just don't believe everything the model tells you. Just because it shows a cutter, doesn't mean it would be a cutter in reality or vice versa with a coastal storm (if it ever shows one of those in the long range). plus it has a really funny evolution where it cuts so far west we barely warm up or see any precip until the cold front passes and we warm briefly. Also it sets up a nicer pattern in which there looks to be some reloaded cold air and s/w energy streaming across the SW. Yes were doing model analysis 324 hrs out lol but theres always another threat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 KIPT GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 12/10/2010 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 FRI 10| SAT 11| SUN 12| MON 13| TUE 14| WED 15| THU 16| FRI 17 CLIMO X/N 32| 20 34| 30 38| 21 30| 17 26| 17 29| 20 36| 25 36 22 37 This is as good as it gets next week? High of 26 is the coldest we can muster next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I have a question , just trying to figure this out, .Why is it that the GFS snowmap has most of Ohio in 4 to 6 inches of snow with a storm track that goes from Wi to Mi and northeast. I know usually with that type of track ,locations west of the mountains like the Ohio Valley gets flooded with warmth ahead of the system. Just something not typically seen at least not that I can recall watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Im not saying its much, but im looking at it correctly, look... Precip at 72 Precip type at 72 Even ifthe precip isnt left at 72 you can clearly see the snow line is all the way to the coast at 72 so I suspect there is at least a LITTLE snow before 72, not saying it would accumulate but there would probably be some flakes. 850s crash quick but the surface lags a few hours it seems on the maps. there could be a period of mangled flakes or fat juicy raindrops that must have been snow 100 feet above. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_072m.gif looks like the precip ends before the freezing or near freezing air arrives http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_700_072m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I have a question , just trying to figure this out, .Why is it that the GFS snowmap has most of Ohio in 4 to 6 inches of snow with a storm track that goes from Wi to Mi and northeast. I know usually with that type of track ,locations west of the mountains like the Ohio Valley gets flooded with warmth ahead of the system. Just something not typically seen at least not that I can recall Most of that is LE snow after the storm has passed. There are like 10 frames of .01 for OH.. and you are using the 120 hr total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad River Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 3 certainties in life...... death, taxes, and LES after a big hit or near miss!! After a killer week of upslope this week I'll take a set-up like that. A little rain will harden the fluffy snow that fell this week making for a better base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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