CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 At least right now..I'm thinking blocking is going to be strong enough to force things south to some degree. I.e SNE gets more snow than NNE..not that they won;t get snow.just whiffed more often than not....but that the cold actually overwhelms the pattern so much that the natural gradient is forced south..that would mean the M/A does ok as well Blocking will help out unless we have a Bering Sea vortex, but I don't think we'll have that vortex as the dominant feature in the Bering Sea area. All I mean is that there may be a few more question marks this year regarding blocking, but I do think it will avg out negative...the NAO that is. If that's the case....enjoy. I feel optimistic about this winter in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 In a gradient south winter? You had the best winter you possibly could have had last year and beat Ray by like 2" of snow. You will almost certainly get less than him this year. Ninas just favor north more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Anxious to see others thinking, I know Jerry put out prelims I usually post some snowfall guesses when November rolls around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Thanks for the triple-digit love, ginx. If push comes to shove at the end of the season to get there, I make sure and angle my ruler a little bit. SWFE and Miller B's.. Almost forgot the Clippahs as welll Love me some clippahs, SWFEs--not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I truly think that we'll need some help from the NAO or hopefully a NPAC type ridging. If we do...then maybe it's not such a gradient around these parts. It's funny...last year I never felt truly worried about the winter and my gut turned out right. This winter, I'm a little more nervous...for a couple of reasons. 1) The gradient..although I think overall KBOS will be on the better side of it. 2) Marine taint and a winter like '00-'01. It wasn't a bad winter for BOS, but when 40 miles away gets 60" more of snow....that is disappointing. I do think if we can keep a semblance of blocking and/or some good ole NPAC ridging...that will make for a decent winter for a good chunk of SNE. If Steve is right...I'll take that snowfall in a heartbeat. I agree, but I am obviously more concerned about the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I agree, but I am obviously more concerned about the latter. I honestly can't find a specific reason why I should feel that way, so I don't want people looking into my post too deeply. It's just something I would hate to see happen. Otherwise I feel pretty good overall. I gave my very preliminary guess at 50" or so imby which seems like it fits other years well. I'll probably throw more numbers around later next month when everyone else does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Not going to use metars but rather some members locations KWXFELLA- Boston KPOWDAHFREAK- Stowe Vt 110 KWXWATCHER- Keene, NH 97.5 KALLENSON- Corinth VT 108 KDENDRITE- Northfield NH 99 KTUBES- Dobbs Ferry NY 35.5 KSOCKS- Rindge NH 106.5 KMEKSTER- Gray Maine 100.5 KDRYSLUT- Lewiston Maine 96.5 KMAINEJAYHAWK- Limington, Maine 94.5 KTAMARACK- New Sharon Maine 113 KTOOT- Somewhere in Buttfook Maine 131 KLOGAN- Knox NY 114.5 KMONEYPIT MIKE- Shelburne Mass 102.5 KSKIMRG- West Chesterfield Mass 132.5 KWEATHERX- Norwalk CT 36.5 KGRINCH- Shelton CT 65 KLIBATIONS- Fairfield, CT 37.5 KWIZ KCTRAIN- West Hartford CT 64 KCOLLINSVILLE- Collinsville, ct 72.5 KCTBLIZZ- Tolland Ct 84.5 KCOASTAL RI- Westerly RI 47.5 KNECT- Woodstock, CT 72 KMATTMFER- Providence, RI 74.5 KTAUNTON BOB- Taunton, Ma 64 KAMYB- Blackstone, MA 81 KWILL- Worcester Mass 98.5 KHUBBDAVE- Hubbardstown, Mass 99.5 K40/70- Wilmington, Mass 88.5 KCOASTALWX-Dorchester Mass 76 KCCWEATHER.NET- Cape Cod Mass 38 KMESSENGER- Plymouth Mass 42 KSCITUATE- Scituate Mass 56 KGINX- Moosup-CT 61 also KWEATHERMA 92.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 My winter outlook: it will get cold, and it will snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 13, 2011 Author Share Posted October 13, 2011 My winter outlook: it will get cold, and it will snow endless winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 You had the best winter you possibly could have had last year and beat Ray by like 2" of snow. You will almost certainly get less than him this year. Ninas just favor north more. LOL...ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 That would be admirable. In that setup, your getting 115" would likely bring 130"+ IMBY. Ginx, Where's Vim Toot? Last SWFE winter he approached 200". How much for J.Spin... in that last SWFE he had 203". Last winter 197". His 5-year average is 170" or so I think. I'm hoping he can get over 200", that would put me around 150" again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 endless winter? perhaps, we are way over due for a march and april that produces especially further north, and waaaaay overdue for a wrist slitting spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 LOL...ok I don't think he was trolling. I think Ray has you this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 13, 2011 Author Share Posted October 13, 2011 perhaps, we are way over due for a march and april that produces especially further north, and waaaaay overdue for a wrist slitting spring. I really hope some folks lay it out what they are thinking. I know some wait until Novie and some never say but here is your chance . Folks should have their totals in before Mid Novie I would say, NNE folks especially Thanks Weather MA for the totals. One question how does PVD beat Taunton Bob and I? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 13, 2011 Author Share Posted October 13, 2011 How much for J.Spin... in that last SWFE he had 203". Last winter 197". His 5-year average is 170" or so I think. I'm hoping he can get over 200", that would put me around 150" again. How do you measure .1 inches of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I really hope some folks lay it out what they are thinking. I know some wait until Novie and some never say but here is your chance . Folks should have their totals in before Mid Novie I would say, NNE folks especially Thanks Weather MA for the totals. One question how does PVD beat Taunton Bob and I? LOL, just throwing some random guesses out there. No science whatsoever. And I actually think I had PVD at 64.5 not 74.5 then I changed it since I saw I had Blackstone up above 80" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 KSKIMRG- West Chesterfield Mass 132.5 This must be below normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 13, 2011 Author Share Posted October 13, 2011 This must be below normal? I think I am going to nail your total within 2-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I realy hope some folks lay it out what they are thinking. I know some wait until Novie and some never say but here is your chance . Folks should have their totals in before Mid Novie I would say, NNE folks espcially. Thanks Weather MA for the totals. One question how does PVD beat Taunton Bob and I? I have thoughts regarding the upcoming winter, have not decided on actual results yet but some things I am thinking about......... -nao/blocking..........I do not believe it will be as persistant as the last two winters -Lack of STJ -NS dominated winter..............return of the clipper! -Miller B winter? -position of ridging across the central conus -Big midwest winter? -where does the gradient set up? -solar? -NINA how strong does it get? -SST's I really like the idea of a big winter in ski country especially the further north and west you are, also have been thinking a lot about dominant storm tracks for the winter, and how strong troughing will be in the northeast and how that is influenced by blocking. Is it possible to have a double sweet spot for snows this year, once across nw new england and another across eastern new england the direct result of miller b's and clippers redeveloping? Lots to think about, going to throw around some amounts around novie 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 How do you measure .1 inches of snow? On a snow board, its not all that hard... especially if the snow board is elevated closer to eye level like his is. His records are probably some of the most comprehensive in Vermont and he's got pictures of most of the snowfalls to back it up. Just fascinating little snow globe area along the Spine and within a couple miles either side of it. I dunno though, the NWS has been doing it for years so they must not have any problems either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I think I am going to nail your total within 2-3 inches. I think I'm due for a relative disappointment of a season. I lucked out 07-08 with all of the SWFEs, 08-09 with overall a solid winter, and then last year with perfectly placed deform bands. One of these winters it's going to even out and I'll get whiffed to the SE a couple times with a couple of glop events, while NNE cashes in, in between.If we can get into another SWFE pattern this year I'll feel cautiously optimistic for 90-100" again. With the way the CAD sets up here from Plym-Lake Winn-CON it almost acts like a coastal front giving me a little extra low level lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 13, 2011 Author Share Posted October 13, 2011 On a snow board, its not all that hard... especially if the snow board is elevated closer to eye level like his is. His records are probably some of the most comprehensive in Vermont and he's got pictures of most of the snowfalls to back it up. Just fascinating little snow globe area along the Spine and within a couple miles either side of it. I dunno though, the NWS has been doing it for years so they must not have any problems either. I know he is meticulous as all get up and in an awesome spot .1 inches is 1/10 of an inch of snow, look on a ruler, thats like two flakes on top of each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I think I'm due for a relative disappointment of a season. I lucked out 07-08 with all of the SWFEs, 08-09 with overall a solid winter, and then last year with perfectly placed deform bands. One of these winters it's going to even out and I'll get whiffed to the SE a couple times with a couple of glop events, while NNE cashes in, in between. If we can get into another SWFE pattern this year I'll feel cautiously optimistic for 90-100" again. With the way the CAD sets up here from Plym-Lake Winn-CON it almost acts like a coastal front giving me a little extra low level lift. Sounds like Kevin will beat you this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 13, 2011 Author Share Posted October 13, 2011 I think I'm due for a relative disappointment of a season. I lucked out 07-08 with all of the SWFEs, 08-09 with overall a solid winter, and then last year with perfectly placed deform bands. One of these winters it's going to even out and I'll get whiffed to the SE a couple times with a couple of glop events, while NNE cashes in, in between. If we can get into another SWFE pattern this year I'll feel cautiously optimistic for 90-100" again. With the way the CAD sets up here from Plym-Lake Winn-CON it almost acts like a coastal front giving me a little extra low level lift. No such thing as due though. Your running average is impressive, mix in some 07/08 with a little 10/11. I thought long and hard about yours and Sams area, should be a great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I know he is meticulous as all get up and in an awesome spot .1 inches is 1/10 of an inch of snow, look on a ruler, thats like two flakes on top of each other. Official NWS measuring stick in 1/10" increments. http://gooselakeweather.com/wp/?p=68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Sounds like Kevin will beat you this winter. Hopefully Ryan taught him how to properly measure during that event last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 13, 2011 Author Share Posted October 13, 2011 Official NWS measuring stick in 1/10" increments. http://gooselakeweather.com/wp/?p=68 I know just bustin, I want a Stephen in CT one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I know he is meticulous as all get up and in an awesome spot .1 inches is 1/10 of an inch of snow, look on a ruler, thats like two flakes on top of each other. lol... oftentimes here it is like 2 flakes stacked on top of each other. Sometimes I think all we get is fluffy snow here where you can still see things that are 6" under the snow due to how much air is trapped in the snowfall. Here's a shot from J.Spin's web page... you could easily measure this snowpack to the nearest 1/8th of an inch. With the 1/10th inch NWS ruler he uses for is CoCoRAHS measurements, I doubt its that hard because he also never sees wind being tucked down under the Spine. How many snow flakes does it take to get to 1" of upslope dust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I don't think he was trolling. I think Ray has you this year. I don't think he was either..I just don't buy it.. I've beaten Ray many yrs..including the last 2 out of 3. We avg the same amt of snow..if things are forced south again I get more...it's a 50/50 pro..and something that noone can predict Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I wasn't trolling Kevin...he loses to Ray in La Ninas about 80% of the time. The only La Nina years I can say he confidently beat him in was 2005-2006 and maybe 2000-2001, but the latter is definitely not a given...at least in modern times. Last year he won, but it was a virtual dead heat. Ray had more snow in every single one of the 1970s La Ninas. He had more in 3 out of 4 1960s La Ninas as well. Only likely a narrow loss in '62-'63. Many of the differences are by huge margins favoring Ray's area...when Kevin's area gets more in a La Nina, its usually a close race like last year. Only '05-'06 was a big difference in favor of Mt. Tolland. Out of 18 Nina events (or very close to it) since 1960, I have Kevin's area getting more 4 times or 22%. He might get more again this year, but I wouldn't bet them that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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