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Your winter snowfall predictions here


Ginx snewx

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At least right now..I'm thinking blocking is going to be strong enough to force things south to some degree. I.e SNE gets more snow than NNE..not that they won;t get snow.just whiffed more often than not....but that the cold actually overwhelms the pattern so much that the natural gradient is forced south..that would mean the M/A does ok as well

Blocking will help out unless we have a Bering Sea vortex, but I don't think we'll have that vortex as the dominant feature in the Bering Sea area. All I mean is that there may be a few more question marks this year regarding blocking, but I do think it will avg out negative...the NAO that is. If that's the case....enjoy. I feel optimistic about this winter in general.

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I truly think that we'll need some help from the NAO or hopefully a NPAC type ridging. If we do...then maybe it's not such a gradient around these parts.

It's funny...last year I never felt truly worried about the winter and my gut turned out right. This winter, I'm a little more nervous...for a couple of reasons. 1) The gradient..although I think overall KBOS will be on the better side of it. 2) Marine taint and a winter like '00-'01. It wasn't a bad winter for BOS, but when 40 miles away gets 60" more of snow....that is disappointing.

I do think if we can keep a semblance of blocking and/or some good ole NPAC ridging...that will make for a decent winter for a good chunk of SNE. If Steve is right...I'll take that snowfall in a heartbeat.

I agree, but I am obviously more concerned about the latter.

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I agree, but I am obviously more concerned about the latter.

I honestly can't find a specific reason why I should feel that way, so I don't want people looking into my post too deeply. It's just something I would hate to see happen.

Otherwise I feel pretty good overall. I gave my very preliminary guess at 50" or so imby which seems like it fits other years well. I'll probably throw more numbers around later next month when everyone else does.

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Not going to use metars but rather some members locations

KWXFELLA- Boston

KPOWDAHFREAK- Stowe Vt 110

KWXWATCHER- Keene, NH 97.5

KALLENSON- Corinth VT 108

KDENDRITE- Northfield NH 99

KTUBES- Dobbs Ferry NY 35.5

KSOCKS- Rindge NH 106.5

KMEKSTER- Gray Maine 100.5

KDRYSLUT- Lewiston Maine 96.5

KMAINEJAYHAWK- Limington, Maine 94.5

KTAMARACK- New Sharon Maine 113

KTOOT- Somewhere in Buttfook Maine 131

KLOGAN- Knox NY 114.5

KMONEYPIT MIKE- Shelburne Mass 102.5

KSKIMRG- West Chesterfield Mass 132.5

KWEATHERX- Norwalk CT 36.5

KGRINCH- Shelton CT 65

KLIBATIONS- Fairfield, CT 37.5

KWIZ KCTRAIN- West Hartford CT 64

KCOLLINSVILLE- Collinsville, ct 72.5

KCTBLIZZ- Tolland Ct 84.5

KCOASTAL RI- Westerly RI 47.5

KNECT- Woodstock, CT 72

KMATTMFER- Providence, RI 74.5

KTAUNTON BOB- Taunton, Ma 64

KAMYB- Blackstone, MA 81

KWILL- Worcester Mass 98.5

KHUBBDAVE- Hubbardstown, Mass 99.5

K40/70- Wilmington, Mass 88.5

KCOASTALWX-Dorchester Mass 76

KCCWEATHER.NET- Cape Cod Mass 38

KMESSENGER- Plymouth Mass 42

KSCITUATE- Scituate Mass 56

KGINX- Moosup-CT 61

also

KWEATHERMA 92.5

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That would be admirable. In that setup, your getting 115" would likely bring 130"+ IMBY.

Ginx, Where's Vim Toot? Last SWFE winter he approached 200".

How much for J.Spin... in that last SWFE he had 203". Last winter 197". His 5-year average is 170" or so I think.

I'm hoping he can get over 200", that would put me around 150" again.

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perhaps, we are way over due for a march and april that produces especially further north, and waaaaay overdue for a wrist slitting spring.

I really hope some folks lay it out what they are thinking. I know some wait until Novie and some never say but here is your chance . Folks should have their totals in before Mid Novie I would say, NNE folks especially Thanks Weather MA for the totals. One question how does PVD beat Taunton Bob and I?

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I really hope some folks lay it out what they are thinking. I know some wait until Novie and some never say but here is your chance . Folks should have their totals in before Mid Novie I would say, NNE folks especially Thanks Weather MA for the totals. One question how does PVD beat Taunton Bob and I?

LOL, just throwing some random guesses out there. No science whatsoever.

And I actually think I had PVD at 64.5 not 74.5 then I changed it since I saw I had Blackstone up above 80" laugh.gif

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I realy hope some folks lay it out what they are thinking. I know some wait until Novie and some never say but here is your chance . Folks should have their totals in before Mid Novie I would say, NNE folks espcially. Thanks Weather MA for the totals. One question how does PVD beat Taunton Bob and I?

I have thoughts regarding the upcoming winter, have not decided on actual results yet but some things I am thinking about.........

-nao/blocking..........I do not believe it will be as persistant as the last two winters

-Lack of STJ

-NS dominated winter..............return of the clipper!

-Miller B winter?

-position of ridging across the central conus

-Big midwest winter?

-where does the gradient set up?

-solar?

-NINA how strong does it get?

-SST's

I really like the idea of a big winter in ski country especially the further north and west you are, also have been thinking a lot about dominant storm tracks for the winter, and how strong troughing will be in the northeast and how that is influenced by blocking. Is it possible to have a double sweet spot for snows this year, once across nw new england and another across eastern new england the direct result of miller b's and clippers redeveloping?

Lots to think about, going to throw around some amounts around novie 1st.

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How do you measure .1 inches of snow?

On a snow board, its not all that hard... especially if the snow board is elevated closer to eye level like his is. His records are probably some of the most comprehensive in Vermont and he's got pictures of most of the snowfalls to back it up. Just fascinating little snow globe area along the Spine and within a couple miles either side of it. I dunno though, the NWS has been doing it for years so they must not have any problems either.

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I think I am going to nail your total within 2-3 inches. :)

I think I'm due for a relative disappointment of a season. I lucked out 07-08 with all of the SWFEs, 08-09 with overall a solid winter, and then last year with perfectly placed deform bands. One of these winters it's going to even out and I'll get whiffed to the SE a couple times with a couple of glop events, while NNE cashes in, in between.

If we can get into another SWFE pattern this year I'll feel cautiously optimistic for 90-100" again. With the way the CAD sets up here from Plym-Lake Winn-CON it almost acts like a coastal front giving me a little extra low level lift.

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On a snow board, its not all that hard... especially if the snow board is elevated closer to eye level like his is. His records are probably some of the most comprehensive in Vermont and he's got pictures of most of the snowfalls to back it up. Just fascinating little snow globe area along the Spine and within a couple miles either side of it. I dunno though, the NWS has been doing it for years so they must not have any problems either.

I know he is meticulous as all get up and in an awesome spot .1 inches is 1/10 of an inch of snow, look on a ruler, thats like two flakes on top of each other.

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I think I'm due for a relative disappointment of a season. I lucked out 07-08 with all of the SWFEs, 08-09 with overall a solid winter, and then last year with perfectly placed deform bands. One of these winters it's going to even out and I'll get whiffed to the SE a couple times with a couple of glop events, while NNE cashes in, in between.

If we can get into another SWFE pattern this year I'll feel cautiously optimistic for 90-100" again. With the way the CAD sets up here from Plym-Lake Winn-CON it almost acts like a coastal front giving me a little extra low level lift.

Sounds like Kevin will beat you this winter. :(

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I think I'm due for a relative disappointment of a season. I lucked out 07-08 with all of the SWFEs, 08-09 with overall a solid winter, and then last year with perfectly placed deform bands. One of these winters it's going to even out and I'll get whiffed to the SE a couple times with a couple of glop events, while NNE cashes in, in between.

If we can get into another SWFE pattern this year I'll feel cautiously optimistic for 90-100" again. With the way the CAD sets up here from Plym-Lake Winn-CON it almost acts like a coastal front giving me a little extra low level lift.

No such thing as due though. Your running average is impressive, mix in some 07/08 with a little 10/11. I thought long and hard about yours and Sams area, should be a great winter.

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I know he is meticulous as all get up and in an awesome spot .1 inches is 1/10 of an inch of snow, look on a ruler, thats like two flakes on top of each other.

lol... oftentimes here it is like 2 flakes stacked on top of each other. Sometimes I think all we get is fluffy snow here where you can still see things that are 6" under the snow due to how much air is trapped in the snowfall.

Here's a shot from J.Spin's web page... you could easily measure this snowpack to the nearest 1/8th of an inch. With the 1/10th inch NWS ruler he uses for is CoCoRAHS measurements, I doubt its that hard because he also never sees wind being tucked down under the Spine.

16MAR07F.jpg

How many snow flakes does it take to get to 1" of upslope dust?

IMG_3012_edited-1.jpg

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I wasn't trolling Kevin...he loses to Ray in La Ninas about 80% of the time. The only La Nina years I can say he confidently beat him in was 2005-2006 and maybe 2000-2001, but the latter is definitely not a given...at least in modern times. Last year he won, but it was a virtual dead heat. Ray had more snow in every single one of the 1970s La Ninas. He had more in 3 out of 4 1960s La Ninas as well. Only likely a narrow loss in '62-'63.

Many of the differences are by huge margins favoring Ray's area...when Kevin's area gets more in a La Nina, its usually a close race like last year. Only '05-'06 was a big difference in favor of Mt. Tolland. Out of 18 Nina events (or very close to it) since 1960, I have Kevin's area getting more 4 times or 22%. He might get more again this year, but I wouldn't bet them that way.

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