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Another Gulf of Mexico tropical threat to the SE late this week?

blueheronNC

By blueheronNC,
in Southeastern States

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blueheronNC

blueheronNC

Posted
Posted

00z EURO showed a tropical cyclone forming in the BOC and making landfall in the FL Panhandle this weekend, then moving along the EASTERN spine of the Apps.

http://raleighwx.ame...rtSLP_loop.html

NWS LIX describes the model differences and setup nicely:

AT SOME POINT WE WILL HAVE TO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT ANOTHER TROPICAL

SYSTEM WILL BE FORMING IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. THIS AREA IS

CURRENTLY VERY UNSETTLED AND HAS THE VERY SOUTHERN END OF A

STALLED COLD FRONT. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR A DISTURBANCE

TO DEVELOP. THE QUESTION IS NOT IF...BUT INSTEAD...ONCE IT DOES

WHERE DOES IT GO? SOMETHING SHOULD BE SHOWING UP AS EARLY AS WED.

AFTER IT DEVELOPS...A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH SHOULD ENSUE THU AND

FRI. THIS IS WHERE CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO LOWER. THE PORTFOLIO OF

GLOBAL MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE

EURO TAKING THE SYSTEM NEAR PENSACOLA BY SUNDAY AND THE GFS TAKING

IT INTO MEXICO. ALL MODELS BRING A STRONG SHORT WAVE AROUND THE

LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CAUSING A STRONG TROUGH

TO ONCE AGAIN DIG AND MOVE SOUTHWARD. THIS IS THE WEAKNESS THAT

MOST OTHER GUIDANCE PACKS ARE SHOWING BREAKING THE RIDGE AND

PULLING THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF COAST. THE INTERESTING

THING IS THAT THE GFS ALSO SHOWS THIS SAME WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER

LEVEL PATTERN BUT BUILDS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN THE UPPER

TROUGH AND THE DISTURBANCE CUTTING OFF ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESS.

THE REASON FOR THE MODELS DIFFERENCE IN PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS

TIMING. THE GFS DEVELOPS THE SYSTEM MORE SLOWLY BEFORE MOVING IT

NORTHWARD AND THEREFORE GIVES THE BERMUDA RIDGE TIME TO DEVELOP

BACK WESTWARD BEHIND KATIA AND INTO THE GULF. THE EURO DEVELOPS IT

QUICKER AND STARTS ITS NORTHWARD JOURNEY SOONER SO THAT WHEN THE

BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDS WEST IT IS TOO LATE. SO AS USUAL...TIMING

WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN WHERE THIS ONE ENDS UP. THE

SHORTER THE TIME THE DISTURBANCE STARTS MOVING NORTH...THE MORE

BETS WILL BE ON A EURO SOLUTION. A LITTLE LATER AND THE GFS WINS.

EVEN LATER AND NONE WILL GET IT RIGHT AS THE SYSTEM WOULD GET

PUSHED TOWARD THE SW INTO CENTRAL MEXICO

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Psalm 148:8

Psalm 148:8

Posted
Posted

Not even an invest yet...maybe we will get a clearer picture when the models are able to grab onto something that has formed instead of one that is yet to form....crossing fingers....we need more rain....think I may have gotten around 2 inches at best from Lee....there was a very sharp cutoff....Tony, bet you didn't get much at all....here's to hoping for a real drought buster for all of GA.:thumbsup:

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Not even an invest yet...maybe we will get a clearer picture when the models are able to grab onto something that has formed instead of one that is yet to form....crossing fingers....we need more rain....think I may have gotten around 2 inches at best from Lee....there was a very sharp cutoff....Tony, bet you didn't get much at all....here's to hoping for a real drought buster for all of GA.:thumbsup:

Wow, that's great! I figured you were in the same boat with me, and Fide, and Candyman. I got a whole 3/8's.... with some fizzle this afternoon. Sun's coming out now. Tony

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

As nice as that looks, I have to remind myself that Lee was supposed to give me 4 to 6 :) These things can be so picky about where they go, and where they don't, but that looks a lot like how Goofy had it...before it didn't....which was lots of rain for Michelle, Lookout and me..the poor urchins of the last rain chance. T

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ECUPiratewx

ECUPiratewx

Posted
Posted

I have no idea how this transpires but think about this...

Let's say it's January 2012 right now and the Euro and Canadian are predicting a snowstorm and the GFS is not......... Which camp would you buy into if you had money on it?

Depends. The camp that badly wants to believe it will snow would say euro, while the negative Nancie will say "too far off, it'll be60 and raining if anything. It'll trend to the gfs, watch."

;)

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Cheeznado

Cheeznado

Posted
Posted

I have no idea how this transpires but think about this...

Let's say it's January 2012 right now and the Euro and Canadian are predicting a snowstorm and the GFS is not......... Which camp would you buy into if you had money on it?

Good point, but as I stated in the general thread about this system this is far from settled despite the Euro- it is slower than the previous run, the majority of the ensembles keep it south and the GFS has been very consistent. Right now I am leaning against a northern track for future Nate, the 12Z Euro really needs to keep the faith alive for a northern solution.

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HWY316wx

HWY316wx

Posted
Posted

12Z NAM brings it north like the 00Z EURO and CMC....

(I have yet to figure out how to post a graphic from that goofy new NCEP model site....grrr)

Here you go. All you have to do is right click the image and save it. Then attach it here.

I think the people of Texas would like for this one to come due north of the the 84 hour NAM.

post-1314-0-10153800-1315415835.gif

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted

No it doesn't. Most of the rain will likely be from the center eastward for this much like Lee was. If you follow the heaviest orange line it goes towards LA.

I think his point was HPC is for now going with the north and east movement towards the US not the south and west towards Mexico. That might change soon though as the Euro is now SW of it's 0Z run...

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

As nice as that looks, I have to remind myself that Lee was supposed to give me 4 to 6 :) These things can be so picky about where they go, and where they don't, but that looks a lot like how Goofy had it...before it didn't....which was lots of rain for Michelle, Lookout and me..the poor urchins of the last rain chance. T

:lol: I will believe it when it's falling from the sky :lol::hug:

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted

12z GFS and Euro have flipped-flopped. Euro takes it west into Mexico and GFS takes into N Florida, and weak. CMC holds the line, moving it into Bama. UKMet moves it into Mexico. Good luck with a forecast

Negative, the GFS basically moves it due west right into Mexico....

Looks like TS Nate at the 5pm advisory....

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