Another Gulf of Mexico tropical threat to the SE late this week?

[LithiaWx]

OK, I see on the NCEP site where the core low moves west into Mex...but there is moisture and a weak wave of low pressure that moves into the NE Gulf...all in all, both look quite weak.

Off the NCEP site it appears that part of the cold front draped across the GOM is responsible for whatever moves into Florida....I did not see an actual low pressure but there it is, weak as can be...

[audioguy3107]

Time to update thread........we've got Tropical storm Nate as of the 5 PM EST advisory.

[ryan1234]

Looks like Nate will go right into Mexico. What a waste of a storm.

[jburns]

Looks like Nate will go right into Mexico. What a waste of a storm.

Somewhere along the Mexican coast sits a teen aged weather enthusiast who, every time a storm moves north in the gulf exclaims, "WHAT A WASTE OF A STORM!" .

[valkhorn]

Looks like Nate will go right into Mexico. What a waste of a storm.

So? Texas needs all the rain they can get. If this moves into Mexico, they get a better chance at rain. We got over 6" on Labor Day and frankly we don't need any more for a while.

I for one hope it produces enough rain to make a dent in the drought but not be so strong that it hurts people and destroys lives.

[ryan1234]

So? Texas needs all the rain they can get. If this moves into Mexico, they get a better chance at rain. We got over 6" on Labor Day and frankly we don't need any more for a while.

I for one hope it produces enough rain to make a dent in the drought but not be so strong that it hurts people and destroys lives.

Uhh the current NHC forecast track would probably have very little effect on the Texas drought. Mexico's terrain would most likely eat up Nate anyway.

[ryan1234]

So? Texas needs all the rain they can get. If this moves into Mexico, they get a better chance at rain. We got over 6" on Labor Day and frankly we don't need any more for a while.

I for one hope it produces enough rain to make a dent in the drought but not be so strong that it hurts people and destroys lives.

And not everyone got 6 inches of rain....

[valkhorn]

And not everyone got 6 inches of rain....

So? it caused a lot of flooding around here and a lot of problems for everyone. Roads were flooded here and I couldn't really enjoy my labor day. I got stuck indoors for most of the day.

Take what you can get. Don't worry about extremes. Be glad if the weather around you DOESN'T cause property damage and the loss of lives. I've seen my share of disasters and tornado damage, flooding and snowstorms and icestorms. They aren't good things and aren't worth wishing for.

[ryan1234]

So? it caused a lot of flooding around here and a lot of problems for everyone. Roads were flooded here and I couldn't really enjoy my labor day. I got stuck indoors for most of the day.

Take what you can get. Don't worry about extremes. Be glad if the weather around you DOESN'T cause property damage and the loss of lives. I've seen my share of disasters and tornado damage, flooding and snowstorms and icestorms. They aren't good things and aren't worth wishing for.

I never said I was wishing for it.

[JQPublic]

Looks like Nate will go right into Mexico. What a waste of a storm.

Since they're relatively close to Texas I'm sure that part of Mexico is also abnormally dry.

[Blue Ridge]

And not everyone got 6 inches of rain....

Are you related to snowstorm2011?

[HWY316wx]

Don't look now but the GFS onto Nate. The GFS solution takes it in around the MS & LA line and then it just meanders down the coast for 4 days at a snails pace, raining itself out. Not sure I buy that solution but you can have a look for yourself below. I skipped a lot of hours in between because it was like photo copies just inching from MS to the panhandle.

The 00Z Canadian holds serve and brings it in a very similar fashion to Lee.

[MotoWeatherman]

Don't look now but the GFS is in on '96 becoming a T.D. if not a T.S. The GFS solution takes it in around the MS & LA line and then it just meanders down the coast for 4 days at a snails pace, raining itself out. Not sure I buy that solution but you can have a look for yourself below. I skipped a lot of hours in between because it was like photo copies just inching from MS to the panhandle.

The 00Z Canadian holds serve and brings it in a very similar fashion to Lee.

Actually '96 is already a Tropical Storm...Nate.

[HWY316wx]

Actually '96 is already a Tropical Storm...Nate.

I had not even looked. I just went to looking at models this morning. FAIL on my part.

[HWY316wx]

In this episode of as the models turn, out to Hour 174 on the GFS Nate looks to be trying to head to Texas, but he's not there yet.

[HWY316wx]

But at the 240 Hour, goes to the Lee side of the Apps in Hurry and rockets through Kentucky up to the NE.

[Cheeznado]

Nate's threat to the US is very small now- it has stalled too far south to get picked up I am afraid. More dry weather here probably.....

[LithiaWx]

Nate's threat to the US is very small now- it has stalled too far south to get picked up I am afraid. More dry weather here probably.....

Cliff Divers to follow

[Marion_NC_WX]

Just using the eye-test...I'm very interested in the fact that our upper low which developed after Lee went extra-tropical has now retrograded back as far west as Indiana. Also if you notice, the water vapor over the Upper Plains is diving back southwest which to me indicates that the low will continue to retrograde for the near future. The question is...just how far does that occur? Is this the same philosophy that the GFS is using in its forecast track?

[jrips27]

This thread needs a title update pronto. Nate is almost a hurricane.

[Cold Rain]

It certainly looks like the south and southeast US has raised it's tropical cyclone shields, according to the models anyway. Cyclone in the Gulf goes west and the one in the Atlantic goes east....in model prog land anyway.