12z Dec 7 model guidance

[NaoPos]

lows in the teens? pushing single digits?

[tombo82685]

hr 210 lgt precip for se pa,snj,del with lgt to mod fom phl to del to snj...im not sure if its picking up on lake effect or bay effect or some kind of disturbance over the area

[tombo82685]

hr 216 has sub 988 low just abov ny state in canada thats bring some lgt precip to about nyc, still some lgt precip from phl del snj

[Quakertown needs snow]

next wed 20s for highs for the big cities...se pa, snj, de still getting lgt precip

hopefully we can get a little white coating to go along with the cold blast

[tombo82685]

i wish i had midlos snow maker

[tombo82685]

hr 222 that retrograding low ihas brought some lgt precip to the selinsgrove to abe to toms river line on north

[Riptide]

i wish i had midlos snow maker

It might become so dry that Snow Making may not even be possible.

[CooL]

Agreement on what? Which lake it's going to cut into?

chicago to the apps is like 400-500 miles. I'd say thats alot of miles, hence, disagreement. Its obviously going west of the cities now, but im talking about where the models cut it - is where the disagreement is.

[tombo82685]

the block acorss greenland into northern canada is epic.... there are two areas of cut off lows one over the northeast the other is just south of the gulf of alaska ga and northern fl have the same hgts as northern canada...

[SnowGoose69]

chicago to the apps is like 400-500 miles. I'd say thats alot of miles, hence, disagreement. Its obviously going west of the cities now, but im talking about where the models cut it - is where the disagreement is.

If it goes as far west as the Euro its possible NYC would have little more than just a showery mild day...this would be the dream situation if we had a significant snowpack on the ground as opposed to a track over Pittsburgh or overhead where the snowpack would be wiped out.

[tombo82685]

some lgt precip over nyc at hr 228 and i78 north in pa

[tombo82685]

finally around hr 234 a storm makes it to the rockies

[tombo82685]

hr 240 has a storm coming out of the rockies, some lgt precip in ten valley. its colder in flordia than up by the hudson bay

[tombo82685]

europe is frigid though, the scary thing is, with the way how the euro has the block the cold air basically has been cut off to canada. it looks like a christmas lights acorss the north with how high the hgts are

[benfica356]

tombo, do you want me to do any model threads? Maybe I can change our luck haha

[MJO812]

hr 222 that retrograding low ihas brought some lgt precip to the selinsgrove to abe to toms river line on north

The Euro has been signaling a retrogading low for a couple of runs.

[wxman]

chicago to the apps is like 400-500 miles. I'd say thats alot of miles, hence, disagreement. Its obviously going west of the cities now, but im talking about where the models cut it - is where the disagreement is.

At this range I have seen an apparent can't miss cutter end up out to sea and vice versa. anyone who says otherwise has a short memory.

[tombo82685]

tombo, do you want me to do any model threads? Maybe I can change our luck haha

lol hahaha, i didnt start the 12z model thread. The outcome of this for us is pretty much locked as rain reguardless of who starts it...maybe someone else should start them for the future storms

[bluehens]

That GOA is absolutely killing us right now. Until we get rid of it I'm doubting we see any storms of significance snow-wise on the coastal plain/big cities.

[MJO812]

12z Nogaps is really nice.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NOGAPS_12z/nogapsloop.html

[SnowGoose69]

At this range I have seen an apparent can't miss cutter end up out to sea and vice versa. anyone who says otherwise has a short memory.

Based on the pattern in the NW Atlantic its unlikely we'll see an OTS solution any longer...the ridge in the west also now looks amplified enough as well to prevent it...its okay though...sooner or later its going to happen in the NE in the next 4 weeks...it was just very unfortunate that for the 3-5 day period this month the NAO decided to move east is exactly when the storm develops over the U.S.

[tombo82685]

That GOA is absolutely killing us right now. Until we get rid of it I'm doubting we see any storms of significance snow-wise.

with the way the euro has the block situated and the cut off over us, whatever comes east would get sheared. But yes that goa low is killing us, though its not really in the gulf of alaska its south of there. The hgts in alaska are pretty high

[tombo82685]

this is what im talking bout, look at how the cold air is basically sealed off

[Dsnowx53]

12z Nogaps is really nice.

http://www.meteo.psu...nogapsloop.html

The Nogaps shows a lot more riding in Greenland, and an actual 50/50 low. It will obviously be wrong most likely, but based on its 500mb depiction, its track makes sense.

[Chris L]

Great for bitter cold. But the lack of ridge out west, and EPO ridge is killing the East as of now.

[mattinpa]

12z Nogaps is really nice.

http://www.meteo.psu...nogapsloop.html

You know, it doesn't look like a far-fetched solution. I don't think the storm is locked in as rain, but we'll need some movement soon.

[bluehens]

with the way the euro has the block situated and the cut off over us, whatever comes east would get sheared. But yes that goa low is killing us, though its not really in the gulf of alaska its south of there. The hgts in alaska are pretty high

Yeah we need that low south of Alaska to move what 400 miles west so its under the Aleutians and we'd be in better shape.

I think the -NAO is going to persist for the most part this winter so if we could just get the Pacific to cooperate a bit I think we'll see something nice.

[Riptide]

this is what im talking bout, look at how the cold air is basically sealed off

Damn, that is utterly ridiculous and it probably won't verify.

Oh? I guess it's a possibility

[Radders]

this is what im talking bout, look at how the cold air is basically sealed off

Hey Tom - can you do me a favor and send me the link to these Euro charts..

Thanks

Rob

[Chris L]

Yeah we need that low south of Alaska to move what 400 miles west so its under the Aleutians and we'd be in better shape.

I think the -NAO is going to persist for the most part this winter so if we could just get the Pacific to cooperate a bit I think we'll see something nice.

All it takes is this: MJO phase 7/8 and the polar jet digs south enough to form a Gulf sfc low.