tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Hey Tom - can you do me a favor and send me the link to these Euro charts.. Thanks Rob http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 http://raleighwx.ame...dels/ecmwf.html Oh, it's RaleighWX's site... Didn't realize that... Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Tom, do we see any accumulating snow in the next 10 days on the Euro,? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 12z Nogaps is really nice. http://www.meteo.psu...nogapsloop.html since were grasping for straws heres the 12z jma, or am i not allowed to post it cause of its horrendous look, isnt that like weenie 101, dont post something if it looks bad for your area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Tom, do we see any accumulating snow in the next 10 days on the Euro,? the retrograding low may give you a dusting lol....se pa del snj gets like .25-.5 from lake effect or bay effect or whatever it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 1291749489[/url]' post='77013']the retrograding low may give you a dusting lol....se pa del snj gets like .25-.5 from lake effect or bay effect or whatever it is I will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I'm going to build a huge lake in NE Pennsylvania. Who's with me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 12z KMA is still showing a coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Time to look at the low res/bad models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 At this range I have seen an apparent can't miss cutter end up out to sea and vice versa. anyone who says otherwise has a short memory. Feb. 2-4 2009 was cutting into the Lakes every run this juncture out...in a matter of a couple runs it had trended too far east to affect the East coast. We ended up having a norlun trough give us a few lucky inches in PHL/NYC area. Granted, I really do not expect this solution to deviate to the degree that the big cities get a snowstorm. I just don't see it happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 12z Nogaps is really nice. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NOGAPS_12z/nogapsloop.html Dude! That is epic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 am i a weenie for riding my hopes on the 1% chance of the nogaps verifying? all hail the fiddy fiddy low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Based on the pattern in the NW Atlantic its unlikely we'll see an OTS solution any longer...the ridge in the west also now looks amplified enough as well to prevent it...its okay though...sooner or later its going to happen in the NE in the next 4 weeks...it was just very unfortunate that for the 3-5 day period this month the NAO decided to move east is exactly when the storm develops over the U.S. Can't help but feeling the same way. We needed the nao to relax or shift a bit in order to get this storm to develop in the first place though. It's just shifting a little too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 am i a weenie for riding my hopes on the 1% chance of the nogaps verifying? all hail the fiddy fiddy low I think the NOGAPS actually nailed the 12/19-12/20 event last year from several days out rather consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 ..lol..just kidding, maybe. am i a weenie for riding my hopes on the 1% chance of the nogaps verifying? all hail the fiddy fiddy low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Can't help but feeling the same way. We needed the nao to relax or shift a bit in order to get this storm to develop in the first place though. It's just shifting a little too much. The NAO has a habit of doing the wrong thing at the wrong time for the NE/MA quite often in December, the list is endless but December 2000 before the event on the 30th as well as 12/25/02 are some recent cases where the NAO decided to tank (not in a good way) at inoppurtune times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Picked up 4.5" with that system out here...which also turned out to be my total for the month of February... Same story in New Brunswick with about 5". A couple more cold days after it, and then the pattern which had been cold through most of January up to that point, broke down until the March 1-2 event. I distinctly remember a few days beforehand the models consistently had a bomb going into the Ohio Valley, a couple model cycles and poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 I think the NOGAPS actually nailed the 12/19-12/20 event last year from several days out rather consistently. That was more of a red flag since it was the furthest northwest I would say...it's usually surpressed like this. That being said, slim hope has been give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I'm going to build a huge lake in NE Pennsylvania. Who's with me? I have thought about how nice it would be with a huge lake in PA and the benefits of LE. But what about the Appalachian's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 12z Euro ensembles are still the same from the 0z run. More south and east of the op run. I think the NOGAPS actually nailed the 12/19-12/20 event last year from several days out rather consistently. Yes it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 am i a weenie for riding my hopes on the 1% chance of the nogaps verifying? all hail the fiddy fiddy low no, its the craving for snow. We all are in the same boat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 12z Euro ensembles are still the same from the 0z run. More south and east of the op run. the ens mean is always se of the op, its when they are like the 12z gfs compared to its ens mean where its a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Ah, you don't want it. We all know LES isn't real snow. <Ends trolling> I love lake effect snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 i dare someone to post the kma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 The NAO has a habit of doing the wrong thing at the wrong time for the NE/MA quite often in December, the list is endless but December 2000 before the event on the 30th as well as 12/25/02 are some recent cases where the NAO decided to tank (not in a good way) at inoppurtune times. Interesting. Dec. 2000 worked out very well for me, but I'm assuming your speaking for the places like DC who missed out and further east places like Long Island and Boston who changed to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I know the NYC area got screwed Feb 5-6th but look at this endless supply from the Southern Jet that storm and the others had: ------> C:\Users\David\Documents\wv2_east_anim.gif ....something that is obviously lacking this year, and this storm isnt even digging enough far south to even come close to tapping like last year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I'm going to build a huge lake in NE Pennsylvania. Who's with me? ill chip in some, it would have to mammoth in size though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 wait for it, wait for it. i dare someone to post the kma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 i dare someone to post the kma If someone posts a picture of a Korean model I'm gonna lose it....that horse has been beaten to death more than enough times with photos of Giselle posted every time someone asks what the Brazilian model shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 If someone posts a picture of a Korean model I'm gonna lose it....that horse has been beaten to death more than enough times with photos of Giselle posted every time someone asks what the Brazilian model shows. paging anthony, i know he has it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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