billgwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 GFS ensemble mean- east of Hatteras by a fair amount with every member east of the Op at 120, then it brushes Cape Cod. If the new Euro is east, well.... No surprise here. Even worse at at properly maintaining Western Atlantic ridging than the operational GFS, a bias which we have seen time and time again with winter storms. My rule of thumb is that if the operational GFS lies to the western side of the ensemble spread, the op GFS or an op GFS/ECMWF blend is the way to go. Am also remembering how well a GFS/ECMWF blend did with post-tropical Noel a couple of years back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Through 72, definitely not a fish, moderately west of GFS, but east of 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 If this fishes, it will be one of the most spectacular burns in Eastern/AmWx history. I can't recall another fish that seemed so hardwired for USA landfall, based on days and days of runs from such a diverse suite of models. I'm remembering Kyle from a couple of seasons ago that was supposed to keep on heading NNW toward Long Island per the majority of model guidance, only to hit Maine/Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I think a couple of points need to be said: 1) 72 hours before Hurricane Katrina made landfall in Louisiana, New Orleans wasn't even in the forecast cone. I find that very hard to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'll preface by saying I'm well aware of the criticism of the HWRF from earlier. Nonetheless it still could potentially be used by the NHC as a reference in the upcoming disco.... 0z HWRF - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 No surprise here. Even worse at at properly maintaining Western Atlantic ridging than the operational GFS, a bias which we have seen time and time again with winter storms. My rule of thumb is that if the operational GFS lies to the western side of the ensemble spread, the op GFS or an op GFS/ECMWF blend is the way to go. Am also remembering how well a GFS/ECMWF blend did with post-tropical Noel a couple of years back. That also brings back memories of the Boxing Day Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I think a couple of points need to be said: 1) 72 hours before Hurricane Katrina made landfall in Louisiana, New Orleans wasn't even in the forecast cone. 2) I see this on TV: 'Model consensus says the hurricane will be near such and such...' Model consensus does not equal model accuracy as the consensus is subject to wild shifts. Remember a couple of days before Hurricane Ike made landfall, the consensus was near Port Lavaca, well landfall was nowhere near Port Lavaca. Hence my recent screed, rant, etc. about public hurricane forecasts beyond 72 hours. Heh heh...I think Ike was also originally either an Atlantic fish storm or minor EC threat per the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I find that very hard to believe. That's because it is 100% false. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 108, west of the GFS but east of the 12Z Run, looks like ILM or Morehead City? Moving very slowly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 No surprise here. Even worse at at properly maintaining Western Atlantic ridging than the operational GFS, a bias which we have seen time and time again with winter storms. My rule of thumb is that if the operational GFS lies to the western side of the ensemble spread, the op GFS or an op GFS/ECMWF blend is the way to go. Am also remembering how well a GFS/ECMWF blend did with post-tropical Noel a couple of years back. GFS ensemble mean definitely has an E bias in most scenarios for coastal systems gaining latitude so I agree. These aren't the exact same scenarios as winter, but a general theme is still correct. The only issue is that right now, we are beyond very useful skill level for either. So it could be 200+ miles either way. Another stat I remind people on when trying to forecast tracks of TCs, is that models have a much better score for mid-latitude cyclones in winter than TCs....and we all know how ugly those forecasts can be at this time range in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 At hour 108, the ECMWF has a hurricane headed due north towards Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Euro landfall 960mb over ILM Saturday evening. EDIT: Maybe a hair east of ILM, then NE to near Norfolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Euro landfall 960mb over ILM Saturday evening. Not bad. And not a whole lot different than the previous run. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Euro landfall 960mb over ILM Saturday evening. it sounds like it is the same as the 12z run ex the pr is up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Still pretty bullish solution by the Euro for SE landfall. Its definitely holding the ATL ridge better even if its not quite as hard as the 12z run. Something to consider. 120 hours out is still an eternity though, but it definitely beats models like the GFS/GGEM at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 OK, I feel a bit reassured by the Euro, A fish is still a possibility, but we are still in the game (of course we really should not be wishing for landfall, the HWRF intensity is scary)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Do any of the pro mets-- or knowledgeable amateurs-- care to compare the Euro and the GFS, and which one seems to have a better, more realistic handle on this particular setup? (As I think about it, I realize that, in the grand scheme of things, they're in relatively good agreement Re: landfall location-- especially for 5 days out.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 144 he ec is over allentown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 0z GFDL - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The Euro has been most consistant by far over the past 2 days, so maybe that should be something to take note of after the ensembles come out (pending the results). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 144 he ec is over allentown. Its lack of recurve is a bit bizarre compared to other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 OK, I feel a bit reassured by the Euro, A fish is still a possibility, but we are still in the game (of course we really should not be wishing for landfall, the HWRF intensity is scary)... Me, too. I felt like I was on the edge of the abyss after that GFS run. I'm still not thrilled with the day's trends-- yes, I said it-- but this Euro run is definitely helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 OK, I feel a bit reassured by the Euro, A fish is still a possibility, but we are still in the game (of course we really should not be wishing for landfall, the HWRF intensity is scary)... What does the HWRF say ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 What does the HWRF say ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 OK, I feel like a weenie even bringing this up, but Scott did post those porn models... I know the HWRF and GFDL go postal with intensity, but I thought the GFDL isn't as crazy with regard to track, and that is has some shred of value in that regard. Am I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Its lack of recurve is a bit bizarre compared to other guidance. I agree. over alb at 150 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 144 he ec is over allentown. Wow, I was expecting more like what Bertha did (Wilmington/Cape Fear to ACY TO JFK).... that ridge must be holding firm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I always will take a consistent Euro even over the GFS ensembles at this time frame- so right now I peg NC landfall as probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 with the hwrf/gfdl and the ecwmf i'm a bit less worried i think we wont see to drastic a shift east with the new tpc update, they'll probably shift it a bit but not outside the obx region. I won't be be worried til tomorrow night about a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Its lack of recurve is a bit bizarre compared to other guidance. Is "bizzare" the right word to use? Given the synoptical setup it progs, the cutting of the trough, it makes sense, at least to the naked eye and simple mind. Also seems to fit in a bit better with the increased ridging in both models....GFS weakens the ridging/gives it less weight after awhile, which fits into what we'd expect in it being east of the ECMWF. If I remember correctly the GFS corrected back westward with Earl following the ECMWF so maybe it is onto something. I admit I am biased to a landfall but am trying to be objective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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