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Hurricane Irene Model and Forecast Discussion


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Rather irritating to have such spread when more data have been ingested and the future should be presumably clearer.

That having been said, most the right-leaning plots are the crap models.

The tropical models on that map are still based on the 18z GFS, which I presume did not ingest the new data. So if I understand it correctly, the next batch of tropical model runs should better reflect the new data, along with the 00z global models.

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I doubt the new data is getting into the early cycle runs.

The 00z tropical models on that map are still based on the 18z GFS, which I presume did not ingest the new data. So if I understand it correctly, the 06z tropical models should better reflect the new data, along with the 00z global models.

Cool, thanks. As you can see, model mechanics is not my forte.

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18z GEFS ensemble mean and individual members

Hmm, the mean basically takes this right over my house. Interesting even though it would probably be down to Cat 1 and transitioning to extra-tropical.

Sorry for the IMBY post.

It will be very interesting to see what the 00z Models say especially with the extra data. :popcorn:

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Additional info on data for the 0z GFS run -

http://www.weather.gov/view/validProds.php?prod=adm&node=kwno

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 0315Z TUE AUG 23 2011 THE 00Z GFS MODEL IS RUNNING ON TIME. RAWINSONDE COVERAGE FOR MODEL DATA ASSIMILATION WAS EXCELLENT ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND INCLUDED 36 DROPSONDES FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN.

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Comparing the 18z 06 hr and the 00z 0 hour. Nothing seems too off, The one thing that does stand out is that the ridge over NM is bigger and now extends well into Texas. Maybe the flow is a bit faster coming into the PAC NW, only by 5-10 kts though.

EDIT: Looking at H3 the flow coming into the PAC NW is definitely faster, by 10-15 kts offshore in the jet.

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