OKpowdah Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Do you have a link to that. I do not. Thanks in advance. I just use Allan's site: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfdl.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 For what it's worth.. the 00z JMA doesn't really ever make a landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Solid, helpful post! Can you keep these coming every so often? Glad you like those. I'll try to remember to post one tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 For those interested, GFDL goes over Morehead to just west of VA beach to Annapolis, MD due north towards New Freedom, PA and same trek from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Through 30hrs, the ECMWF did take a jump to the NW from the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 For those interested, GFDL goes over Morehead to just west of VA beach to Annapolis, MD due north towards New Freedom, PA and same trek from there. Wow, that would be devastating for the western points of the Chesapeake Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wow, that would be devastating for the western points of the Chesapeake Bay. Yeah stays a cat 1 til in PA, little bit of baroclinic enhancement it seems up in southern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 As far as intensity goes the HWRF is off by 15mb at 06Z, has it 935mb. GFDL much better, 949. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 As far as intensity goes the HWRF is off by 15mb at 06Z, has it 935mb. GFDL much better, 949. Did the HWRF shift a bit east? The intensity that model spits out is almost worthless! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 For those interested, GFDL goes over Morehead to just west of VA beach to Annapolis, MD due north towards New Freedom, PA and same trek from there. Do you have a link to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Do you have a link to that? Its on my GrEarth, want a screen cap of the track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Its on my GrEarth, want a screen cap of the track? Yes, please! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 00Z UKMET 96 Hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Here is the GFDL wind swath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The Euro is slower and a tick west of it's 12z run through 72 hours. It's close to landfalling southwest of Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Yes, please! Thanks! Oh boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The Euro is slower and a tick west of it's 12z run through 72 hours. It's close to landfalling southwest of Hatteras. Yeah Euro is about 6 hours slower from 12z to 00z and looks like it will go inside HSE and over ORF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The Euro has landfall between 72 and 78 hours over the far eastern Carolinas. It's headed northward with seemingly significant impacts to the Chesapeake and related areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 At 90 hours the surface low is headed towards DC over the Chesapeake. Sub 976mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The Euro has landfall between 72 and 78 hours over the far eastern Carolinas. It's headed northward with seemingly significant impacts to the Chesapeake and related areas. Yea, a track like that would just keep pushing water up into the Bay and the Potomac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 At 90 hours the surface low is headed towards DC over the Chesapeake. Sub 976mb. So it's traveling due N at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 So it's traveling due N at this point? Yeah, it eventually brings the surface low just west of Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Did the HWRF shift a bit east? The intensity that model spits out is almost worthless! It's actually doing fairly well for this storm compared to all other models. It made the top 3! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Day 4 EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Severe potential with this hurricane, if RGEM output is accurate, height falls over the centre amount to near-record lows for a tropical system (546 dm depicted at 36h). Track is ominous but not yet clear enough to suggest more than extreme caution anywhere northeast of about Charleston SC. Further ahead, Long Island or New England landfalls will coincide with new moon near perigee (late 28th early 29th) suggesting extreme storm surge issues wherever Irene reaches land over the period Saturday to Tuesday. I believe it is quite possible that a strong cat-4 or even cat-5 hurricane may develop east of JAX, perhaps make a brief NC/VA landfall and then stay strong (fading only to cat-3 or high end cat-2) well north of 40N. Quite likely this is the last Hurricane Irene we will ever see. Where did you get this info from ? I didnt hear anyone mention it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It's actually doing fairly well for this storm compared to all other models. It made the top 3! Interesting! I stand corrected then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
My Weather Today Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 To be honest, I'm not sure most of the folks on here even know the ins and outs of Data assimilation, much less new advances such as hybrid ensemble/var. I don't mean that to be condescending either, it's just that most mets aren't even really really exposed to the theory and application, beyond grad students at some of the bigger universities....and those that get into DA research. I won't clutter this thread with an attempt to explain it, but I would be happy to answer questions offline, provide literature, or even perhaps start a thread specific to answering DA questions. Well good, now this makes me feel a whole lot better knowing I'm not the only one that you may have lost with that post. I am looking forward to your thread for I think it can be a great learning experience for everyone reading this forum. Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The surge in the Euro scenario in the Chesapeake and Delaware bays would be severe at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The surge in the Euro scenario in the Chesapeake and Delaware bays would be severe at the very least. Agree, I am growing increasingly concerned about the Euro's persistence and the other models seeming to tick back west just a bit. My home is in southern MD and Isabel was bad. This seems just as bad if not worse if it pans out like some of the models are showing tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Agree, I am growing increasingly concerned about the Euro's persistence and the other models seeming to tick back west just a bit. My home is in southern MD and Isabel was bad. This seems just as bad if not worse if it pans out like some of the models are showing tonight. Better let Wes know as well.. he''s in Calvert County I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.