nzucker Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Your numbers and colorful pics mean nothing to me tubes, I have schooled you two years in a row, going cold and snowy. Being a good person I will let you "off the hook" with regards to all the beer you owe me. Lets triple down this winter. I am willing to make a call for the winter on my birthday 9/1. We can make the call then and let the sam adams fall where they may? You didn't school me in 09-10...I predicted a snowy winter too. As was discussed many times on The Jet Stream, the radio show Skier and I had in Middlebury, my top analogs were 57-58 and 02-03. I nailed the west-based Niño/-NAO pattern with the high snowfall totals in DC. Sure, I blew the snowfall amounts in 10-11 (mostly due to a crappy January forecast), but I did well on the cold/-NAO December and the warmer -PNA February. I totally missed the MJO wave that sparked the 1/27 snowfall as well as the 1/24 cold outbreak, but I'm not a meteorologist. And here were my summer thoughts, released in early April, not that bad: Don't know why you're calling my forecast track record into doubt in a thread about August temperatures. I'm not saying August is going to be way below normal...you'll probably be surprised when you see my numbers in the forecast contest thread. I'm just throwing out some information and resources for others to view, not seeing what is wrong with that, Joe. I will certainly pay you back with the beer, we can get together anytime you want, I will happily drive to Fairfield or you can come here and enjoy some garden vegetables in Dobbs Ferry. However, I don't see what good there is in rehashing past predictions...you changed your snowfall forecasts like 20 times last winter based on how strong the La Niña was getting, so clearly you and I both missed the domination of the -NAO/low solar regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 I also think it is irresponsible to post things like "big summer heat=big snow" when you haven't really looked at all the years. I know a lot of people believe this Joe, but look at how many counterexamples there are. Again, hot summers followed by crap winters: 1973, 1975, 1980, 1988, 1991, 1999, 2006. That's quite a few examples. Cool summers that preceded a cold or snowy winter: 1960, 1963, 1968, 1976, 1977, 2000, 2004, 2009. Again, nearly zero predictability here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 You didn't school me in 09-10...I predicted a snowy winter too. As was discussed many times on The Jet Stream, the radio show Skier and I had in Middlebury, my top analogs were 57-58 and 02-03. I nailed the west-based Niño/-NAO pattern with the high snowfall totals in DC. Sure, I blew the snowfall amounts in 10-11 (mostly due to a crappy January forecast), but I did well on the cold/-NAO December and the warmer -PNA February. I totally missed the MJO wave that sparked the 1/27 snowfall as well as the 1/24 cold outbreak, but I'm not a meteorologist. And here were my summer thoughts, released in early April, not that bad: Don't know why you're calling my forecast track record into doubt in a thread about August temperatures. I'm not saying August is going to be way below normal...you'll probably be surprised when you see my numbers in the forecast contest thread. I'm just throwing out some information and resources for others to view, not seeing what is wrong with that, Joe. I will certainly pay you back with the beer, we can get together anytime you want, I will happily drive to Fairfield or you can come here and enjoy some garden vegetables in Dobbs Ferry. However, I don't see what good there is in rehashing past predictions...you changed your snowfall forecasts like 20 times last winter based on how strong the La Niña was getting, so clearly you and I both missed the domination of the -NAO/low solar regime. Tubes, you have waaaaaaaaay to much time on your hand brother! Why dont you come up this weekend for a beer and ba~tey, chill on the back deck for a while? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Tubes, you have waaaaaaaaay to much time on your hand brother! Why dont you come up this weekend for a beer and ba~tey, chill on the back deck for a while? Well I've been working as a substitute teacher and private tutor since I graduated Middlebury, so things are quiet in the summer. I worked like 50 hours per week during the year, although it's not as though I saved up a lot with the low salary. I still have a part-time delivery job at a Japanese restaurant to get some money, but I'm not that busy. I've been spending most of my time looking into weather, as well as planning graduate school or a better full-time job in the fall. Getting a steady gig and sending out lots of resumes is what my focus is right now, as well as trying to get another degree (either a Masters in Spanish Education or starting a B.S. in Atmospheric Sciences), so I am online a lot and naturally like to research and share. I could do something this weekend, especially if it were Saturday or Sunday (preferably) afternoon. I'm working Friday/Saturday nights driving, so I would have to do it early Saturday afternoon (need to leave by 5pm) or anytime on Sunday when I am free. Personally, I would love to come down Sunday PM and chill on the back dack, if you don't mind. What is your schedule like? BTW I don't mean any offense by this conversation, I am just putting my best meteorological knowledge out there. Some folks are prone to generalizations, and it's easy to let a few years with an obvious connection (95 heat-->95-96 snow, 02 heat-->02-03 snow) overwhelm a more detailed statistical analysis that could reveal the fallacy of an argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 My squirrels are fat bastards, hazelnuts falling already. Get ready bro This is true...really....strikingly large for mid summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Be leary of using the NAO in any linear correlation for the time being. The huge east-spatial bias of the emerging -NAO, combined with the understanding that seasonal wave lenghts are significantly shortened changes the landscape of what those -NAO progs should mean local to our part of the hemisphere. There's almost an element of uncharted waters here.. The operational runs appear reluctant to persistently lower heights here and in the MA, which is the preferred -NAO characteristic flow, tending to waver back to normal or even slightly above about every 3rd cycle. This may be a reflection of deterministic instability in assessing the spatial/temporal synoptic features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Be leary of using the NAO in any linear correlation for the time being. The huge east-spatial bias of the emerging -NAO, combined with the understanding that seasonal wave lenghts are significantly shortened changes the landscape of what those -NAO progs should mean local to our part of the hemisphere. There's almost an element of uncharted waters here.. The operational runs appear reluctant to persistently lower heights here and in the MA, which is the preferred -NAO characteristic flow, tending to waver back to normal or even slightly above about every 3rd cycle. This may be a reflection of deterministic instability in assessing the spatial/temporal synoptic features. would think the high heights in the north atlantic would favor some sort of troughing or lower height anomaly in eastern canada...perhaps not really directly effecting us with cooler than normal but a near normal pattern due to frequent ups and downs. guidance suggests this anyway. might just be a deal where it puts us (GL/NE) on the NE periphery of the plains ridge. highest heights in the lower 48 should end up over the plains where they bake while a fast moving flow/battle zone transitions the border...giving us really short-lived air masses both ways (warm/cold). can already see this evolving actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 would think the high heights in the north atlantic would favor some sort of troughing or lower height anomaly in eastern canada...perhaps not really directly effecting us with cooler than normal but a near normal pattern due to frequent ups and downs. guidance suggests this anyway. might just be a deal where it puts us (GL/NE) on the NE periphery of the plains ridge. highest heights in the lower 48 should end up over the plains where they bake while a fast moving flow/battle zone transitions the border...giving us really short-lived air masses both ways (warm/cold). can already see this evolving actually. Yes, but the east-based characterisitic of the -NAO blocking that is the concern I was attempting to get across - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 I think the pattern looks slightly above normal as we enter August. Mid and upper 80's type stuff. Hard to believe just a few more precious weeks of torch talk and than we can start looking forward to the seasonal cool down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 30, 2011 Author Share Posted July 30, 2011 81 Full on sizzle today, off to the races at 935 am!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 30, 2011 Author Share Posted July 30, 2011 84/66 off to the races baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Zucker, There's no need to defend yourself about spending too much time on here. Everyone knows how bad the economy is. Litchfield, you're the last guy who should be busting anyone's balls about spending time here. You're on here all day euphorically hootin and hollerin about mundane weather conditions. Well I've been working as a substitute teacher and private tutor since I graduated Middlebury, so things are quiet in the summer. I worked like 50 hours per week during the year, although it's not as though I saved up a lot with the low salary. I still have a part-time delivery job at a Japanese restaurant to get some money, but I'm not that busy. I've been spending most of my time looking into weather, as well as planning graduate school or a better full-time job in the fall. Getting a steady gig and sending out lots of resumes is what my focus is right now, as well as trying to get another degree (either a Masters in Spanish Education or starting a B.S. in Atmospheric Sciences), so I am online a lot and naturally like to research and share. I could do something this weekend, especially if it were Saturday or Sunday (preferably) afternoon. I'm working Friday/Saturday nights driving, so I would have to do it early Saturday afternoon (need to leave by 5pm) or anytime on Sunday when I am free. Personally, I would love to come down Sunday PM and chill on the back dack, if you don't mind. What is your schedule like? BTW I don't mean any offense by this conversation, I am just putting my best meteorological knowledge out there. Some folks are prone to generalizations, and it's easy to let a few years with an obvious connection (95 heat-->95-96 snow, 02 heat-->02-03 snow) overwhelm a more detailed statistical analysis that could reveal the fallacy of an argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 30, 2011 Author Share Posted July 30, 2011 Zucker, There's no need to defend yourself about spending too much time on here. Everyone knows how bad the economy is. Litchfield, you're the last guy who should be busting anyone's balls about spending time here. You're on here all day euphorically hootin and hollerin about mundane weather conditions. wooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooosh buddy, tubes will be joining me for cocktails on my deck, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 30, 2011 Author Share Posted July 30, 2011 Just got back from the beach, what a day torch is on 90 at 1pm loving it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 31, 2011 Author Share Posted July 31, 2011 91 for the high today +7 departure Nothing but mid to upper 80s here for the upcoming week forecasted by okx, first week of August looks above normal, as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Probably a +1 or so departure here... Low was only 63F so that is the fly in the ointment 80.7F for a high was pretty sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 31, 2011 Author Share Posted July 31, 2011 Probably a +1 or so departure here... Low was only 63F so that is the fly in the ointment 80.7F for a high was pretty sweet Im sure it was, we always do well heatwise on a nw wind, this week looks amazing for weather, enjoy it, carolina looks awesome too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Im sure it was, we always do well heatwise on a nw wind, this week looks amazing for weather, enjoy it, carolina looks awesome too When are you headed out? That trip sounds great. Any good houses to rent that way? Orlando bound Monday morning. Viva - la sizzle x 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 31, 2011 Author Share Posted July 31, 2011 When are you headed out? That trip sounds great. Any good houses to rent that way? Orlando bound Monday morning. Viva - la sizzle x 10 Orlando mega sizzle brother, short lines though, we are leaving around 3am tom night, get back the 13th of 14th, and yeah beach houses are reasonable, especially since both couples have young kids, so we buy killer seafood and stuff and make dinners and party, no going out. Saves a lot of money and is much much more enjoyable. Have a safe trip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 31, 2011 Author Share Posted July 31, 2011 July ending on a hot albeit dry note, first week of August looks above normal, then look out middle to end of month, roast city baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 High of 80.7 to close out the month Dews getting up there this evening a bit... 67 earlier... 66 now currently 68.9F July probably finishes +3.1 for ORH... pretty warm, but mostly due to higher overnight lows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Surprise no mention of the coastal on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Surprise no mention of the coastal on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Nice 850 SE inflow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Great to see surface temps -8 progged for Greenland, seasonal shift has begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Looks to be an awesome body surfing week ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Wet snow possible at Pete's 2k building site? Surprise no mention of the coastal on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 8, 2011 Author Share Posted August 8, 2011 ok so +2.5 so far through yesterday at BDR and a plus 8 today......seems like the august assault is off to flying colors, just facts not an opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 ok so +2.5 so far through yesterday at BDR and a plus 8 today......seems like the august assault is off to flying colors, just facts not an opinion. 12z GFS and 12z ECM show a major cooldown Thursday-Saturday with <10C 850mb temperatures across the Northeast following a cold front on Wednesday. We should see at least three days of significant negative departures, especially in SNE, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Although the NWS is still pretty warm in the point+click forecasts, if the 0z runs confirm what 12z showed regarding the strength of the cold front associated with Wednesday's thunderstorms, I wouldn't be surprised to see even Dobbs Ferry top out around 77-78F Thursday or Friday with much more comfortable nighttime temperatures perhaps dipping as low as the upper 50s. Just as Thursday-Sunday will reduce the positive departures, I believe the back of this summer has basically been broken as we slide into a less extreme version of August 2008. The core of the heat ridge has retreated to the SW into Texas and eventually should migrate back towards its natural position in the Four Corners, allowing cold fronts to move through Quebec with a weak trough anchored in SE Canada around Hudson Bay. This will maintain a stormy/rainy pattern throughout the month, as has defined August so far, and will also keep temperatures near average. Since we're starting with warm departures, I could see all three stations finishing above normal, especially DCA, but not nearly to the extreme of July. Also, any bouts of extreme heat are mostly behind us, as positive departures in this pattern will come mostly with cloudy/stormy weather on the crest of the ridge before cold fronts moving through Quebec bring back the predominantly cooler pattern. 12z ECM at Day 10 shows the trough over Eastern Canada with the ridge moving back to CA/AZ: 12z GFS Ensembles show warmer than normal temperatures in the Four Corners region with average to slightly below average in the East: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 From what I've looked at regarding the long range euro and gfs it looks like the August assault may finally come to an end. Whew, good thing... The assaulting looks to be in favor of cooler and wetter than normal as opposed to the warmer/less preferable weather that had been progged. Wont hear any complaining from me if that is the case, even if we have a couple warmer days here and there its to be expected. But like many have said the back of the summer does seem to have been broken and it appears most have conceded that. Hope today was the last of the high dews that we see til next summer. Still going good with no highs in the 90's since that marginal heat wave a week or so ago. Next step toward fall is to drop and stay below the 80's....can't wait. Pete may already be at that point now so I know it can't be too much longer for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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