Mr Torchey Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 As we near August 1st, and visions of dendrites dance in Hubb Daves head, mother nature will once again remind weenie nation what time of year it is. Historical heat is called Historical for a reason, its rare, we may not have another surge of what blasted the northeast last week, but the steady, unrelenting, summertime weather carries on. A very warm end to the week and weekend looks to continue into August, and as we round out next month I expect monthly departures will once again be north of average. The dog days are almost upon us, the weather looks to be perfect for vacation, beach, lake, or favorite adult beverage on the deck as the cheddar brauts fill the thick humid stagnant air. Its time for air quality alerts and the HHH's to catch our eye on your local NWS homepage. Pete, Dave, MPM and Rick will get there first frosts while Kevin walks the tarmac at BDL in his banana hammock taking hourly temps. Alas, I will be far away in South Carolina sipping on frozen rum runners enjoying the beach, which means sne will be litchfield libation free for two entire weeks, rejoice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 I could see the first half of August being above average before a gradual cooldown. 6-8 weeks of solidly above average temps. Then it cycles down for 6-8 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 25, 2011 Author Share Posted July 25, 2011 lol. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 26, 2011 Author Share Posted July 26, 2011 88/57 sw 10 another above normal day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 88/57 sw 10 another above normal day High was 87.8F here after a low of 65, so about +1 departure. Mostly cloudy and mild now, been outside working on the garden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 26, 2011 Author Share Posted July 26, 2011 High was 87.8F here after a low of 65, so about +1 departure. Mostly cloudy and mild now, been outside working on the garden. should be about a +5 or so departure here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Most of the 90+ temps stay to the south on the 12z ECM, and it does bring in a significant cold front on 8/2. Signal remains for ridging to the west of the area, but more troughing over the Canadian Maritimes with the NAO dipping: NAO forecast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 This thread has the potential for huge fail, tubes posted why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 26, 2011 Author Share Posted July 26, 2011 This thread has the potential for huge fail, tubes posted why. Meh, most thought July would be normal, how did that work out? If I fail, who cares I will be sipping rum runners watching wealthy southern girls stroll down white sand beaches. August will be above normal, I am not worried. Life is good today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Heavy heavy blocking coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 Heavy heavy Jets domination Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Heavy heavy blocking coming up. It's the start bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 I wouldn't count on much in the way of heat for the beginning of August. But like I said in the other thread, wait up for a hot end to August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 Calling for a 2-4 positive departure across southern new england for august, back on july 7 when I started viva la sizzle, I called for serious heat mid month, that verified, we shall see how this goes. Not historical this month, just steady above normal weather. Dog days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Calling for a 2-4 positive departure across southern new england for august, back on july 7 when I started viva la sizzle, I called for serious heat mid month, that verified, we shall see how this goes. Not historical this month, just steady above normal weather. Dog days. Nah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 Nah We shall See Steve, time will tell, its july 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 We shall See Steve, time will tell, its july 26th. LOL, early fall? We have seen the beast, beaten him down and now head towards our lord winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 LOL, early fall? We have seen the beast, beaten him down and now head towards our lord winter. I wouldn't be shocked if it warmed up later in August, but at least the beginning seems blocky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 LOL, early fall? We have seen the beast, beaten him down and now head towards our lord winter. August, and the heat will really have a huge impact on my winter forecast. Big summer heat=Big winter snows, I have always felt that way. I will say I have noticed some fruit falling from the trees a little early this summer, squirrels look normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 August, and the heat will really have a huge impact on my winter forecast. Big summer heat=Big winter snows, I have always felt that way. I will say I have noticed some fruit falling from the trees a little early this summer, squirrels look normal. My squirrels are fat bastards, hazelnuts falling already. Get ready bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 I wouldn't be shocked if it warmed up later in August, but at least the beginning seems blocky. The beast is done no matter how warm in Aug, no way we get anywhere close to what we just went through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Maybe this discussion would have a little more significance if subjective terminology like "the beast" was given some quantitative definition. Yeah, we're not getting any hotter than last week, but I think BDL still has 4 days of 90+ coming later in August (22nd - 28th timeframe) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Maybe this discussion would have a little more significance if subjective terminology like "the beast" was given some quantitative definition. Yeah, we're not getting any hotter than last week, but I think BDL still has 4 days of 90+ coming later in August (22nd - 28th timeframe) The devil in her Hot red dress, the HI 100 plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 The beast is done no matter how warm in Aug, no way we get anywhere close to what we just went through. Did you even read my opening post, and thats like saying you wont get bitter cold in March like you do in Jan ginxy............come on now man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 I wouldn't be shocked if it warmed up later in August, but at least the beginning seems blocky. The 12z GEFS show the ridge retrograding back west for the beginning of August, setting up normal temperatures in the East: 12z GFS global temperature analysis shows a warm signal in the NH (and globally at +.299C) but near normal temperatures in the East for the next 8 days, courtesy of Ryan Maue: Looking at the larger picture, the Northern Hemisphere should start to cool down with more of a blocking signal, global SSTs having fallen significantly, and the recent improvements in the cryosphere. I hope and believe we can eliminate most of the global temperature anomalies by fall given how low global SSTs are and the resurgent La Niña currents. August, and the heat will really have a huge impact on my winter forecast. Big summer heat=Big winter snows, I have always felt that way. I will say I have noticed some fruit falling from the trees a little early this summer, squirrels look normal. Hot summers leading to cold/snowy winters: 1955, 1966, 1983, 1993, 1995, 2002, 2005 Hot summers leading to poor winters: 1973, 1975, 1980, 1988, 1991, 1999, 2006 So it cuts both ways more than you think, Joe. I never have found much statistical significance in the idea that hot summers lead to cold winters, as folks just pinpoint a few classic examples like 1995 while forgetting about the rest of the analogs. Many cold summers also led to great winters, like 1957, 1960, and 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 The 12z GEFS show the ridge retrograding back west for the beginning of August, setting up normal temperatures in the East: 12z GFS global temperature analysis shows a warm signal in the NH (and globally at +.299C) but near normal temperatures in the East for the next 8 days, courtesy of Ryan Maue: Looking at the larger picture, the Northern Hemisphere should start to cool down with more of a blocking signal, global SSTs having fallen significantly, and the recent improvements in the cryosphere. I hope and believe we can eliminate most of the global temperature anomalies by fall given how low global SSTs are and the resurgent La Niña currents. Hot summers leading to cold/snowy winters: 1955, 1966, 1983, 1993, 1995, 2002, 2005 Hot summers leading to poor winters: 1973, 1975, 1980, 1988, 1991, 1999, 2006 So it cuts both ways more than you think, Joe. I never have found much statistical significance in the idea that hot summers lead to cold winters, as folks just pinpoint a few classic examples like 1995 while forgetting about the rest of the analogs. Many cold summers also led to great winters, like 1957, 1960, and 2009. Your numbers and colorful pics mean nothing to me tubes, I have schooled you two years in a row, going cold and snowy. Being a good person I will let you "off the hook" with regards to all the beer you owe me. Lets triple down this winter. I am willing to make a call for the winter on my birthday 9/1. We can make the call then and let the sam adams fall where they may? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Did you even read my opening post, and thats like saying you wont get bitter cold in March like you do in Jan ginxy............come on now man. Pattern recognition? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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