Dr No Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Big-time snow event on the 18Z GFS next weekend, for those who care. DC really nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozzie Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 18z gfs FWIW looks to be some southern stream interaction here maybe a true miller A but i'm not certain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 maybe bastardi will get it rightr??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Big-time snow event on the 18Z GFS next weekend, for those who care. DC really nailed. Just saw that. Too bad it's 9 days out. At least it's something to monitor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Was not a true Miller A really... well it definitely wasn't a gulf low.. comes from a northern stream short wave driving out of the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 Just saw that. Too bad it's 9 days out. At least it's something to monitor! The way the Atlantic has been, it'll probably miss to the south, lol.... very cold right through all 384 hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Shows a 2-4'' clipper for us with plenty cold temps, maybe higher ratios then. GFS 156 Clipper Clipper 36hr Precip 162 Then, holy! Storm in OH Valley Approaching 204 Big snows 216 even bigger snows, a bomb Total for 2nd storm, high ratios would occur Altogether, it would be an awesome double storm set-up. But, as we saw this week, neither will verify for the doubler we were supposedly in for. Also, it is the 18z GFS at 150+ so yeah, take it with a grain of salt. Had to be posted though for Henry Margusity, we know he'll be raving about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Godspeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozzie Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 It does draw up moisture from the gulf though right? So its just a miller B that dug really far south, basically a hybrid not quite a true B and definitely not A because its not a southern stream shortwave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 It does tap the gulf... its a northern stream feature that DIGS enough to tap the gulf. :X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 maybe bastardi will get it right??? If you keep shooting at a target, some shots will eventually end up hitting the bulls-eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 lolwut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozzie Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 could you link me to the site where you get that elinwood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 If you keep shooting at a target, some shots will eventually end up hitting the bulls-eye. Yep, even I can occasional hit the bullseye. Still, I'd sure bet against it, the big storm, if I were a gambling man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Great run. No posting in the complaint thread for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 It does draw up moisture from the gulf though right? So its just a miller B that dug really far south, basically a hybrid not quite a true B and definitely not A because its not a southern stream shortwave? Don't worry about it cause it won't happen. The boottom right panel here will answer your gulf question, just trace the wind barbs http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp1_180.shtml And Miller A and B's have nothing to do with southern stream shortwaves. If the low tracks over TN, KY or OH and jumps to the coast, it's a Miller B. If it tracks over eastern SC it's a Miller A. Usually a southern stream SW if it's that far south, but there is no requirement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 I think it goes back to the wise weenie proverb: at least if you have the cold, you have the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozzie Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Don't worry about it cause it won't happen. The boottom right panel here will answer your gulf question, just trace the wind barbs http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp1_180.shtml And Miller A and B's have nothing to do with southern stream shortwaves. If the low tracks over TN, KY or OH and jumps to the coast, it's a Miller B. If it tracks over eastern SC it's a Miller A. Usually a southern stream SW if it's that far south, but there is no requirement. Theoretically, if the low tracks south through tennessee and then jumps to the coast at and then tracks up the coast from eastern sc what would that type of storm be classified as Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 the way the pattern looks going forward (next few weeks) it's hard to think we dont get a snowstorm of some consequence... but i have little to no faith in the models at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozzie Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 I think the 18z DGEX and 18z GFS show some sort of similiarities at 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 could you link me to the site where you get that elinwood It's from the company I work at, MDA/EarthSat... you need to be an employee or subscriber to see our maps. Of course, it's perfectly okay for me to post it because the GFS stuff is free for anyone to make maps like that with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Theoretically, if the low tracks south through tennessee and then jumps to the coast at and then tracks up the coast from eastern sc what would that type of storm be classified as 1899 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Too bad its the 18z... Sent from my ADR6300 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Yep, even I can occasional hit the bullseye. Still, I'd sure bet against it, the big storm, if I were a gambling man. I'm right there with you. I have no faith in the modeling and I'm as pessimistic/realistic as I have been in a long time. I say we get nothing good around here till mid February. I can guarantee you that 0z will look nothing like this. Mark my words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Too bad its the 18z... Sent from my ADR6300 using Tapatalk agreed Sent from 2 cans and a string Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I'm right there with you. I have no faith in the modeling and I'm as pessimistic/realistic as I have been in a long time. I say we get nothing good around here till mid February. I can guarantee you that 0z will look nothing like this. Mark my words. if the euro at 00z tonite looks like the 18z gfs then ill start getting excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 agreed Sent from 2 cans and a string Tapatalk huge lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 if the euro at 00z tonite looks like the 18z gfs then ill start getting excited the s/w in question is like 6 days from hitting the pac nw and then it does something most waves like it don't do... if the euro looks good it might be nice but there's no certainty there in anything. excited should be a bit off still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 agreed Sent from 2 cans and a string Tapatalk LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 the s/w in question is like 6 days from hitting the pac nw and then it does something most waves like it don't do... if the euro looks good it might be nice but there's no certainty there in anything. excited should be a bit off still. agreed, i do put a little more stock into the euro then i do the gfs this far out, but... 7 days to go anything can and will happen, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.