Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 Something to watch tomorrow is the formation of a squall line as the surge of Arctic air low 850 " s and some pos advection move through. Should mostly affect Pike North but possible NCT gets in on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Well I lived in the third floor from 90-93 and second floor in '94. Were you roommates with Thompson, Mengalitis and Hazelwood? Or were you there later? I think I remember a guy named Parek and an asian guy who stuttered. Second floor was a bunch of weirdo's I never met. Freakin' small world Yeah, I had Mega as a roomate and Hazey for a bit. Don't remember an Asian guy but I had 2 of Indian descent I think I was there 1990-1993? Heavy heavy drinking. Probably like 20 roomates during the time there. What a sh it hole Moved out of Lowell for good in 1994, but I worked at a summer engineering camp this year while Smith (a former home, too) came down. 1992-1993 was a great winter there. Plus the PSC right up the street! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 MRG would do pretty sweet IMO...but your way...rain. Given the trends though...it just doesn't seem right. he would maybe be OK...but that's about it. crappy antecedent air mass...deep SE flow and a SLP track over HFD is not going to cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 MRG would do pretty sweet IMO...but your way...rain. Given the trends though...it just doesn't seem right. Always liked the Ukie, it's obviously the first to latch onto the coreect solution. he would maybe be OK...but that's about it. crappy antecedent air mass...deep SE flow and a SLP track over HFD is not going to cut it. Thanks Phil, I know you're keeping your fingers crossed for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Always liked the Ukie, it's obviously the first to latch onto the coreect solution. Thanks Phil, I know you're keeping your fingers crossed for me. Front end dump for the win. Subsequent phase change is another kind of dump. lol 23.3/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 Always liked the Ukie, it's obviously the first to latch onto the coreect solution. Thanks Phil, I know you're keeping your fingers crossed for me. Here and now, you might see a pretty decent squall line tomorrow aa the Arctic air rushes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Here and now, you might see a pretty decent squall line tomorrow aa the Arctic air rushes in. I'll take that--what's the timing of that? I have to run down to Amherst for a meeting. With my luck, it'll come through when I'm down there in the valley. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Said somewhere else, dont count out more of a frontal passage on monday with some backside energy(anafrontal) giving especially western ne some snow, its been on some of the modeling and ensembles.............. This thing is not done yet. Loooooooong ways to go folks, long ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Here and now, you might see a pretty decent squall line tomorrow aa the Arctic air rushes in. How do you figure? What are you looking at/piecing together? School is in session and Prof Ginx has the podium Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Dave's trying to find an angle to get a snow day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Here and now, you might see a pretty decent squall line tomorrow aa the Arctic air rushes in. I'm actually not impressed with any WINDEX potential tomorrow at all to be honest. Very weak LI spike, limited moisture above 850mb, and lapse rates are a bit marginal...though not terrible. PVA might be able to generate a couple scattered flurries though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Here and now, you might see a pretty decent squall line tomorrow aa the Arctic air rushes in. I'll be looking for that. Skiing tomorrow. It's been a fun couple of days up here. So good to be working and playing in the snow again. It's Tuesday night and people are Swandiving over a storm next Sunday.lol I do like that the Ukie is east and that the 18z GFS ensembles are trending East. So much will happen between now and then but I feel confident by this time next week there'll be a net gain on snowpack here. I'll take that--what's the timing of that? I have to run down to Amherst for a meeting. With my luck, it'll come through when I'm down there in the valley. lol I'm going to buy you a rabbit's foot otherwise you may never see snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Dave's trying to find an angle to get a snow day. LOL... Pref no snow days unless it means I can hit Wachusett As a lifelong learner, I hope Prof Ginx or Dr Scooter or another member of this fine establishment can edumacate me each day Don't go skating away on the thin ice of a torch day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I'm actually not impressed with any WINDEX potential tomorrow at all to be honest. Very weak LI spike, limited moisture above 850mb, and lapse rates are a bit marginal...though not terrible. PVA might be able to generate a couple scattered flurries though. Dr Will's class used to be fun. Now it's all boring homework and notes, no recess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 LOL... Pref no snow days unless it means I can hit Wachusett As a lifelong learner, I hope Prof Ginx or Dr Scooter or another member of this fine establishment can edumacate me each day Don't go skating away on the thin ice of a torch day Wear your helmut and shouldermapads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Wear your helmut and shouldermapads. Terribke It has been colder than forecast by BOX for a few days/longer now Maybe that will hold true? Don't you value edumacation? Funny, my iPod thinks that is a real word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Pond hockey looks like a lock by Friday night if not THursday, cant wait! Some fresh ice by Monday then its back into the deep freeze if the snow does not happen. GOtta love December pond hockey in sw ct, very very rare occurence! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Said somewhere else, dont count out more of a frontal passage on monday with some backside energy(anafrontal) giving especially western ne some snow, its been on some of the modeling and ensembles.............. This thing is not done yet. Loooooooong ways to go folks, long ways. Yup, totally agree. Hey, how ya doin' today? Ok? That was quite the slice of humble pie that got jammed down the...... well, you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Yup, totally agree. Hey, how ya doin' today? Ok? That was quite the slice of humble pie that got jammed down the...... well, you know. Hitting Stowe on Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Hitting Stowe on Wednesday? Haven't decided yet, game time decision as we head north. K-mart possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Yup, totally agree. Hey, how ya doin' today? Ok? That was quite the slice of humble pie that got jammed down the...... well, you know. Doing great, yes it was and the JEts needed it, I suppose its how the Pats felt when they got whooped down in Jersey earlier in the year, or Cleveland. Pete I would not rule out you getting absolutely smoked come early next week!!!!! :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Doing great, yes it was and the JEts needed it, I suppose its how the Pats felt when they got whooped down in Jersey earlier in the year, or Cleveland. Pete I would not rule out you getting absolutely smoked come early next week!!!!! :snowman: I'm going to start making sacrifices to ULLR tomorrow. That should secure the early week snow. You're a true fan to be able to be bouyant after that drubbing. Don't you guys play us in Buffalo soon. That loss is really ging to be tough for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 I'm actually not impressed with any WINDEX potential tomorrow at all to be honest. Very weak LI spike, limited moisture above 850mb, and lapse rates are a bit marginal...though not terrible. PVA might be able to generate a couple scattered flurries though. Perhaps but the secondary spike of vorticity rotating down from Canada associated with the Arctic surge might be enough especially in hilly areas to combine synoptic with the upslope component to generate squally instability snows . The SREF shows a definite bagginess to isobar fields This combined with a wind shift line and strong advection might be enough as I said from the Pike North to get something going, perhaps noonish, BTV is very bullish for their northern and central zones . I think an extension into the Berkshire and ORH up country if not NCT is feasible. BTV NEXT CONCERN IS 700-500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG PVA PROGGED BY NAM/GFS/ECMWF TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WNW-ESE AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH SURGE OF COLDER 850MB TEMPS/LOWER 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES. WHILE SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD DOESN/T SUGGEST A WELL-DEFINED FRONT...OTHER FACTORS SUGGEST PERIOD OF ENHANCED SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT THAT SHOULD MANIFEST AS A 1-3HR PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME FRAME. COULD SEE CENTRAL/NRN AREAS RECEIVE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WITH LOW VISIBILITY 10-14Z FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND MIGHT MAKE FOR A SLOW COMMUTE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Perhaps but the secondary spike of vorticity rotating down from Canada associated with the Arctic surge might be enough especially in hilly areas to combine synoptic with the upslope component to generate squally instability snows . The SREF shows a definite bagginess to isobar fields might be enough as I said from the Pike North to get something going, perhaps noonish, BTV is very bullish for their northern and central zones . I think an extension into the Berkshire and ORH up country if not NCT is feasible. sort of a different animal that BTV is talking about. maybe we are starting to toss around WINDEX too often. there's a fairly tight definition to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I'm going to start making sacrifices to ULLR tomorrow. That should secure the early week snow. You're a true fan to be able to be bouyant after that drubbing. Don't you guys play us in Buffalo soon. That loss is really ging to be tough for you. Buffalo actually comes to the swamp on Jan 2nd. Enjoy the snow squalls tomorrow afternoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 sort of a different animal that BTV is talking about. maybe we are starting to toss around WINDEX too often. there's a fairly tight definition to it. I never said Windex Will did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I never said Windex Will did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I never said Windex Will did. Well you mentioned some heavier squalls with the arctic front...that's a WINDEX...at least for us it is. Up in BTV CWA they have more things going on like the Lake, upslope and are closer to the synoptic moisture. We could get some flakes, but I don't think we'll see any heavy squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Well I lived in the third floor from 90-93 and second floor in '94. Were you roommates with Thompson, Mengalitis and Hazelwood? Or were you there later? I think I remember a guy named Parek and an asian guy who stuttered. Second floor was a bunch of weirdo's I never met. Freakin' small world frat? or maybe it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 sort of a different animal that BTV is talking about. maybe we are starting to toss around WINDEX too often. there's a fairly tight definition to it. For those who are wondering what Phil is talking about Windex stands for Winter Instability snow squalls During the early 90’s a wintertime instability index (WINDEX) was developed to assess the potential for snow squalls along frontal boundaries across New England. It was that study which attempted to quantify moisture, lift and instability in the low levels of the atmosphere needed to produce snow squalls in an environment unstable in respect to shallow upright convection. Windex calculation You calculate the difference between the T1 and the T5 if it is over 10, and especially over 15, you then look at the lifted index.. if it rises significantly after the proposed event, and the RH at R1 is over 50%, you will have instability squalls. T1: Temperature in the 35 mb closest to the surface T5: Temperature at 800 mb R1: Relative Humidity in the 35 mb closest to the surface Lifted Index: Instability index calculated by lifting parcels from the surface to 500 mb and subtracting the temperature of its environment from the parcel temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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