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The Hudson Valley Thread


IrishRob17

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Upton latest

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

119 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE

CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE LOW

DEEPENS AS IT PASSES JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND

WEDNESDAY. THE LOW REACHES THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH

PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --SHORTWAVE ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING CLOSED LOW ROTATES ACROSS NEW

ENGLAND TODAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS TRYING TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SW..BUT

PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ENSURE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

PLENTY OF MIXING UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR

GUSTY WINDS. WINDS FINALLY ABATE LATE IN THE DAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...SLIGHTLY WARMER ALOFT TODAY AS COMPARED TO

YESTERDAY...HOWEVER MIXING DEPTH WILL BE LIMITED. AS SUCH...TEMPS

AROUND FREEZING FOR HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BRIEF RIDGING OCCURS AT ALL LEVELS AS TROUGH DEPARTS. HOWEVER...THIS

RIDGING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE

UPPER MID WEST AND MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH LIGHTER WINDS...TEMPS

SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

THEN ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT AND IMPACT ON

OUR CWA. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A ECMWF/SREF/GFS BLEND HERE...WITH

EMPHASIS ON OPERATIONAL ECMWF. THAT SOLUTION CLUSTERS WELL WITH

GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES OVERALL. NAM IS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF

ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGE WITH REGARD TO

TRACK. NEITHER CAN BE DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE

EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FROM OFF

THE CAROLINA COAST NORTHEASTWARD. THIS OCCURS AHEAD OF DIGGING

TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.

NAM IS SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE...THUS

THE WESTERN TRACK. AGAIN...THIS COULD VERY WELL OCCUR...BUT WILL LEAN

TOWARD CLUSTERED GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

BY DOING THAT...LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM ACROSS

THE ENTIRE CWA. EVEN WESTERN TRACK OF THE NAM PRODUCES SNOW ACROSS

MOST OF THE CWA DUE TO THE EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS

STRONGER WINDS BRINGING COLDER AIR DOWN FROM THE NORTH. A MIXTURE

ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS WOULD OCCUR IN A NAM SOLUTION WITH A SHARP

GRADIENT BETWEEN RAIN/SNOW MIX AND HEAVY SNOW JUST TO THE WEST

ACROSS CENTRAL LI.

DUE TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW...AND FRONTOGENESIS/CONVECTION

ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INTENSE STORM...BANDING AND HEAVIER PRECIP A

GOOD BET. ASSUMING A TRACK NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...EXPECT THE

HIGHEST QPF TOTAL FROM NYC EAST. IF NAM IS CORRECT...A SHIFT IN

THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP TO THE WEST WOULD BE

WARRANTED...PLACING BULLSEYE FROM AROUND NYC NORTH AND WEST.

AT THIS TIME...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH...BEGINNING TUESDAY

EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED

FAST TRACK TO THE SYSTEM...WOULD EXPECT THE BULK OF THE

ACCUMULATING SNOW TO END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY. LI AND SRN CT

WOULD HOLD ON TO THE SNOW A LITTLE LONGER...BUT WILL BUT NOT GET TOO

DETAILED WITH REGARD TO TIMING YET AS UPPER TROUGH STILL TRIGGERS

LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...THUS HAMPERING ANY CLEANUP EFFORTS.

LOOKING FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES GENERALLY. OF COURSE HIGHER AMOUNTS

POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER BANDS WHICH IS TOUGH TO FORECAST THIS FAR

OUT. AMOUNTS COULD BE TEMPERED IF A MIX OCCURS OVER EASTERN LONG

ISLAND.

TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS

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Yeah it is pretty amazing how the coast continues this run of monster storms. 6-10 looks like a solid call for the area.

It's amazing.. I sometimes feel like it is a cruel joke. I moved up here from Brooklyn in Nov 2009, and ever since then, they have had epic snowstorms lmaosmiley.gif

This year is certainly better, but I feel like I have yet to experience a more "typical" HV winter, where we cash in as those south and east get relatively screwed with BL issues.

Having said that, Feb 26th 2010 still wins in terms of prolific snowfall totals, but as Rob has said, it was a miserable wet snow with so much damage.

I am hoping we can get a foot out of this one. West trends are encouraging... We need to see the upper level vort coming across the MW, come in a tad stronger, and the coastal a tad weaker, then the precip shield should expand west a little, and the larger totals would move closer to our area.

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It's amazing.. I sometimes feel like it is a cruel joke. I moved up here from Brooklyn in Nov 2009, and ever since then, they have had epic snowstorms lmaosmiley.gif

This year is certainly better, but I feel like I have yet to experience a more "typical" HV winter, where we cash in as those south and east get relatively screwed with BL issues.

Having said that, Feb 26th 2010 still wins in terms of prolific snowfall totals, but as Rob has said, it was a miserable wet snow with so much damage.

I am hoping we can get a foot out of this one. West trends are encouraging... We need to see the upper level vort coming across the MW, come in a tad stronger, and the coastal a tad weaker, then the precip shield should expand west a little, and the larger totals would move closer to our area.

Ahhh... I see whos to blame now.. ;)

Whats great is knowing 2/26/10 trumps all these recent KU events :)

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Ahhh... I see whos to blame now.. ;)

Whats great is knowing 2/26/10 trumps all these recent KU events :)

Yes 2-26-10 is still the storm of all storms in terms of accumulations, 34" here in Harriman. Unless there is a sharp cutoff, which doesn't seem likely with this storm, the HV should do well with this storm, even though the soundings look better for the coast. Higher ratios here should put the HV over double digits, depending on the banding. Upton right now has me in the 8" range with a qpf of around .70"

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY

1000 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY...THEN A COASTAL STORM

WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH SNOW TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE

FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY BUT COLD WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 1000 AM...FLURRIES STILL TAKING PLACE BUT RADAR RETURNS HAVE

WEAKENED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. APPARENTLY SOME SORT OF

SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS GOING ON WITH ENHANCED HIGH CLOUDS...AHEAD OF

THE DEVELOPING STORM UPSTREAM.

LOW CLOUDS MIGHT HAVE BEEN SHIPPED FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS THE

FLURRIES ARE MOVING FROM THE NORTH. THE H20 LP ALSO INDICATES A

POSSIBLE VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN ONE.

EITHER WAY...INNOCUOUS SNOW AND CERTAINLY NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO

THE UPCOMING STORM. MENTION FLURRIES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING

FROM THE CD NORTHWARD.

DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...DECIDED TO LOWER TEMPS A CATEGORY

ACROSS OUR REGION. LOOKS FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND

WEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

THE COASTAL STORM AS OF 1000 AM...WAS SITTING ABOUT 50 MILES SE OF

CAPE HATTERAS MOVING NORTHEAST. THE STORM IS ALREADY TIED INTO THE

VORTICITY TRAIL TRAILING NORTHWEST FROM IT...ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE

STRONG VORTICITY MAX BACK TO NEAR SAINT LOUIS. IT WILL BEGIN TO

SLOWLY DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.

FYI...THE 12Z NAM CAME IN TRACKING THE STORM SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE

OLDER RUNS...BUT ONLY ABOUT 25 MILES. HOWEVER...THE QPF IS STILL

ROBUST...HIGHER THAN WHAT OUR CURRENT FORECAST. WE WILL AWAIT TO SEE

WHAT THE 12Z GFS HAS TO OFFER...IT HAS PERSISTENTLY OFFERED LESS

QPF. THE 12Z ECMWF NOW SUPPORT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF THE NAM

(COMPARED TO YESTERDAY). NO CHANGES IN HEADLINES JUST YET.

STAY TUNED.

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ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-

1148 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

* HAZARDS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 14 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS

POSSIBLE.

* WINDS...GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN 1/4 MILE AT TIMES.

* TIMING...HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO

EARLY WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY

WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...

AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

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0.5 for the area... it backed off due to a weaker surface low..

I think at this juncture a 5-9 or 6-10 range is a sensible forecast.. I hope I bust low.

Hey Radders, I 'm getting from some other threads that theres another storm around this time next week, did you see anything with that, snow around here?

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Hey Radders, I 'm getting from some other threads that theres another storm around this time next week, did you see anything with that, snow around here?

Yeah, there is something brewing around 180 hours that points to a low pressure developing on an arctic front... Looks like it could be interesting for our area, especially to our north. Higher heights/thicknesses would take NYC out of the game verbatim right now, but obviously this is a ways out.

What is your prediction for tonight? I would be happy with anything in the 6-10 range.

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Yeah, there is something brewing around 180 hours that points to a low pressure developing on an arctic front... Looks like it could be interesting for our area, especially to our north. Higher heights/thicknesses would take NYC out of the game verbatim right now, but obviously this is a ways out.

What is your prediction for tonight? I would be happy with anything in the 6-10 range.

I threw 8-12" out there a couple of days ago and haven't really strayed from it although I was thinking, this morning anyway, that western Orange may be around 6". I think that higher ratios will save us.

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I threw 8-12" out there a couple of days ago and haven't really strayed from it although I was thinking, this morning anyway, that western Orange may be around 6". I think that higher ratios will save us.

High ratios FTW!

Albany snow map shows me straddling the 11" contour in Dutchess. We will see. I think there could be some surprises (good and bad!) with this storm. Such an explosive set-up.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/Snow_PNS/WSW.htm

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