baroclinic_instability Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 What the heck, might as well do it. Global guidance suggestive of the *potential* for a more significant and widespread severe event late Monday through Thursday across portions of the northern and central plains and into the OV/upper MS valley. The European models are more suggestive of an amplified wave flattening the amplified subtropical ridge whereas even the weak and far less organized GFS op/MREF would suggest localized severe threats given the very deep boundary layer moisture progged. While the GFS is not overally suggestive of an organized threat, it has not been the global model of choice through day 5 lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Just hoping for some elevated storms up this way. Likely will be too far north for anything substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 the new hotness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 SPC Day 3 outlook includes slight risk in IL (along and west of roughly a Quad Cities-Lawrenceville line) and in eastern MO (plus parts of IA, IN, KY)--and another small slight in western Nebraska: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 The Euro has been surprisingly and creepily consistent the last several runs while gradually strengthening the system each run, to the point where the H5 trough is now neg-tilt with a closed contour by 12z Thursday morning. GFS is not in good agreement with it, but given that it is the Euro, it's unsettling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 11, 2011 Share Posted June 11, 2011 The Euro has been surprisingly and creepily consistent the last several runs while gradually strengthening the system each run, to the point where the H5 trough is now neg-tilt with a closed contour by 12z Thursday morning. GFS is not in good agreement with it, but given that it is the Euro, it's unsettling. I wishall models produced this map for 6 hor intervals and in hires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 The Euro has been surprisingly and creepily consistent the last several runs while gradually strengthening the system each run, to the point where the H5 trough is now neg-tilt with a closed contour by 12z Thursday morning. GFS is not in good agreement with it, but given that it is the Euro, it's unsettling. Euro has backed off a little overall, but it is still the most aggressive of all guidance with the phasing of the individual PV anomalies then deepening the overall partially phased system into a closed contour upper level low. Still some pretty hefty disagreement amongst the guidance for 72-96 hrs out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 HPC had a blurb in their long range disco about the threat: "THE 12Z ECMWF IS ON TRACK WITH MOST OF ITS MAJOR FEATURES RIGHT THRU DAY 6. IT HAS THE BEST OVERALL CONTINUITY OF ALL THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND WILL BE BLENDED 50% WITH HPC CONTINUITY IN CREATING THE UPDATED 500MB PROGS. IT WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MAJOR CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK IN THE ERN PLAINS/MID AND UPPER MSVLY/OH VLY WED-FRI." Major may be a bit strongly worded even if the Euro verified--but it was interesting HPC went with that wording. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 HPC had a blurb in their long range disco about the threat: "THE 12Z ECMWF IS ON TRACK WITH MOST OF ITS MAJOR FEATURES RIGHT THRU DAY 6. IT HAS THE BEST OVERALL CONTINUITY OF ALL THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND WILL BE BLENDED 50% WITH HPC CONTINUITY IN CREATING THE UPDATED 500MB PROGS. IT WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MAJOR CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK IN THE ERN PLAINS/MID AND UPPER MSVLY/OH VLY WED-FRI." Major may be a bit strongly worded even if the Euro verified--but it was interesting HPC went with that wording. Yeah I don't think Wednesday would end well here if the Euro verified...not to mention is hits us again near the end of its range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Yeah I don't think Wednesday would end well here if the Euro verified...not to mention is hits us again near the end of its range... Yeah the Euro is definitely more amped up that the GFS at this point, will be interesting to see which one blinks first on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Pretty sure the Euro is trying to give me an ulcer. 12z run holds its ground big time, this time though with warmer temps at H85, which by proxy would likely indicate a more unstable atmosphere...gah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Not to mention, and I know it's out of the thread range, but my GOD by day 8 on the Euro...good Lord is this April or May... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 Pretty sure the Euro is trying to give me an ulcer. 12z run holds its ground big time, this time though with warmer temps at H85, which by proxy would likely indicate a more unstable atmosphere...gah. Well the 18Z NAM is the first American model to cave to a stronger solution. Looks more organized in the upper level flow than previous runs of both the GFS/NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 Not to mention, and I know it's out of the thread range, but my GOD by day 8 on the Euro...good Lord is this April or May... Yeah I saw that too. That would be a plains/MS Valley outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Not to mention, and I know it's out of the thread range, but my GOD by day 8 on the Euro...good Lord is this April or May... Ya 180hrs on the 12z Euro is nuts...I wish I could post the images but its not even worth it given its that far out but a decent sized around of 5000+ j/kg and 75 dews around here just ahead of that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Ya 180hrs on the 12z Euro is nuts...I wish I could post the images but its not even worth it given its that far out but a decent sized around of 5000+ j/kg and 75 dews around here just ahead of that system. Lol there's over 6000 J/kg of CAPE in Northern Indiana @ 204 hours out...pure weenie porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Lol there's over 6000 J/kg of CAPE in Northern Indiana @ 204 hours out...pure weenie porn. Look at you...so excited you couldn't even get the hour right. 156 hour has over 6000 J/kg over Central IL and 180 hour has it over Northern IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Ya 180hrs on the 12z Euro is nuts...I wish I could post the images but its not even worth it given its that far out but a decent sized around of 5000+ j/kg and 75 dews around here just ahead of that system. That is just beyond filthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 That is just beyond filthy. Ya looking at 156hrs...its even more filthy...over 6000 j/kg in central IL as someone said with a small speck contour of 80 dew points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Ya looking at 156hrs...its even more filthy...over 6000 j/kg in central IL as someone said with a small speck contour of 80 dew points. And this with decent shear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 And this with decent shear? Yes, good veering with height, 35kt southwest H7 winds to 30kt westerly flow at H5, upper level winds are very weak though. Its better at 180hr as the trof/better mid-level support move eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 I approve of today's 12z ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 And with that the 00z GFS takes a large step toward the Euro for this Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 And with that the 00z GFS takes a large step toward the Euro for this Wednesday. Yeah and further down the line too, I asked which model would blink first, and it looks like the GFS is that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Yeah and further down the line too, I asked which model would blink first, and it looks like the GFS is that model. Yeah that is a giant blink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Yeah that is a giant blink. That it is, and lucky me I am off Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 holy bow echo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 The new Day 2 is a little eh... talking about a possible upgrade... Hopefully we will remain under the ridge here in SW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Hmmm. Will NW Missouri have supercells, multicells, or no storms for the rest of the day? It looks like there is some possibility for tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 take your pick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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