hudsonvalley21 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 DISCUSSION...A SUPERCELL HAS ALREADY EVOLVED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER NERN NY WITHIN AN KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 50-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH APPROACHING 200 M2/S2 /PER BURLINGTON VWP/. INFLOW AIR MASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM/DESTABILIZE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. MLCAPE already at 2000 for sections of central Pa & central NY http://www.spc.noaa....r.php?sector=16# Supercell composite numbers at 8 in sections too. SBCAPE at 2500. SBLI at -8. 1pm obs. from KBGM 78/64 Surface wind SW 15 Gust 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Not sure how you guys aren't under a mod risk... 10% Tornado, 30% wind, 30% hatched hail. You need a 45 wind or hail... and/or 15 tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 This is what I'm thinking, I think the area around Binghamton, NY is the maximum threat for the worst of the severe weather. Not only will it have close to the best possible forcing from the storm, but also have highest CAPE values within the area of good dynamics compared to places further in upstate NY. Values should range 2,000-3,000 J/Kg with some slight chance of it higher than 3,000 J/Kg according to some models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 My local is 10 miles n/w of BGM and I'm planning on chasing this Afternoon and Evening if anything formitable develops in south central NY. We'll see... <fingers crossed> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Maximum heating, but minimal forcing I wouldn't be surprised if far eastern PA had little to show for today (though stuff is still possible). Yeah you are right its a shame we don't have slightly better conditions, but stranger things have happened all that it takes is one renegade cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 My local is 10 miles n/w of BGM and I'm planning on chasing this Afternoon and Evening if anything formitable develops in south central NY. We'll see... <fingers crossed> Good luck and stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the minister Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Having moved to Spencer, NY in 2009 after spending the previous 11 years in Tuscaloosa, Alabama...my "old wives tale" sense is that it REALLY feels like danger outside. Very potent, explosive, unusually muggy feel. And the parameters say as much. Stay safe ya'll! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Myself, Jason Foster and a first-time chaser will be up in southern PA for the action today... SFC winds looking even better than progged with S/SE winds towards eastern PA. We'll be streaming live (maybe with audio, too) once the action gets going. GPS is up for now. The link: www.weatherwarrior.net/TV.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Over/Under on Tornado watch for CNY and possibly parts of PA by 3PM ?? I'm going with the under around 230PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 Wow. 17z Mesoanalysis says 4500 J/kg of CAPE in Philadelphia, and maximum supercell values in central New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Myself, Jason Foster and a first-time chaser will be up in southern PA for the action today... SFC winds looking even better than progged with S/SE winds towards eastern PA. We'll be streaming live (maybe with audio, too) once the action gets going. GPS is up for now. The link: www.weatherwarrior.net/TV.html York County area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Over/Under on Tornado watch for CNY and possibly parts of PA by 3PM ?? I'm going with the under around 230PM 2:15pm. Got the live stream chugging along too. Maybe catch something good on it again. Can't believe they haven't issues one yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Chance of Tornado Watch by 3pm. > 70%. Probably will include alot of upstate NY, Central and Eastern PA. Might even sqeeze a few NJ counties in as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 2:15pm. Got the live stream chugging along too. Maybe catch something good on it again. Can't believe they haven't issues one yet. The Force is strong with you 724 WWUS30 KWNS 261814 SAW2 SPC AWW 261814 WW 382 TORNADO NY PA 261820Z - 270200Z AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 40NW GFL/GLENS FALLS NY/ - 20S BGM/BINGHAMTON NY/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /62NNW ALB - 31WSW HNK/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030. LAT...LON 43727248 41907433 41907762 43727588 THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 382 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 220 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011 TORNADO WATCH 382 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NYC001-007-011-015-017-023-025-035-039-041-043-049-053-057-065- 067-075-077-083-091-093-095-097-099-101-105-107-109-111-113-115- 123-270200- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND DELAWARE FULTON GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER LEWIS MADISON MONTGOMERY ONEIDA ONONDAGA OSWEGO OTSEGO RENSSELAER SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN SULLIVAN TIOGA TOMPKINS ULSTER WARREN WASHINGTON YATES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Wow...not even a SVSTRM Watch for CPA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Wow...not even a SVSTRM Watch for CPA? give it time, KALB is always ahead of the game when it comes to CTP vs KALB / Binghamton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Slight breeze now, wind seem to pick up a little here in the last 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 York County area? Follow the link I posted to see our GPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Yes, in the tornado watch box now for WT382. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Tornado watch baby! good job slow CTP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Beautiful splitting supercell over northern Lewis County in the dacks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 On I-81 after dropping the northern cell... in the tornado warning in southern PA. About 30-0 minutes away from the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Pretty good cell here in Central Oneida County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I'm in Harrisburg city, will report what we see. Clouding up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Just north of the center of Marion, PA... can't tell exactly what went through. May have been a tornado, straight-line winds or a microburst. Caught a funnel on video (at least I think). Have to go back and double-check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Here in Harrisburg: Had gusts to 50 or so, marble-sized hail, a ton of cloud--to-ground lightning and pretty heavy rain. All lasted about 30 minutes, the front end was much more severe than the middle or back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A • TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN BROOME COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK... EAST CENTRAL CHEMUNG COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK... TIOGA COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK... SOUTHEASTERN TOMPKINS COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK... • UNTIL 915 PM EDT. • AT 834 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BARTON... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. • THE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... CANDOR AND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILLSEYVILLE BY 845 PM EDT... NEWARK VALLEY AND 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAROLINE BY 850 PM EDT... BERKSHIRE...RICHFORD AND NANTICOKE BY 855 PM EDT... LISLE AND 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF WHITNEY POINT BY 900 PM EDT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danno Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Storm damage in Cayuga County. Last few pics (brick house) are of my neighbor's kids house, about 10 minutes away. They lost there roof on a very recently remodeled home. http://www.9wsyr.com/news/local/story/Severe-weather-causes-damage-in-Cato/1DGrMn16ZUeUbmblNkeJuw.cspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snagger Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Took 2 direct hits from thunderstorms today and 2 more that were close enough to have fun watching the developements and lightning.. many wall clouds, gusty winds and about 3 minutes of dime size hail from storm #2...Very fun day, that storm around 9 , i can still see the bolts if I blink...good stuff. Muggy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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