wisconsinwx Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 There is obviously still time for models to back off, but that time is becoming short. These kinds of increases in parameters in the hours leading up to an event generally lead to productive outbreaks of severe weather. 09z run valid at 21z Versus 03z run valid at 21z Unfortunately, if this threat verifies, I can see many getting caught off-guard. It hasn't helped that LSX has been extremely conservative on the prospects of severe. A day or two ago they stated that it would be a stretch to see more than a very isolated severe threat, and hadn't even mentioned tornadoes until this morning's AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 There is obviously still time for models to back off, but that time is becoming short. These kinds of increases in parameters in the hours leading up to an event generally lead to productive outbreaks of severe weather. Yeah more often than not, when it jumps up this dramatically right before the event it has yielded very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 I really did NOT expect to wake up to a moderate risk. This could very well get ugly later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 derecho setup looking pretty excellent for chitown, looking forward to some rooftop shelf cloud action this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Yeah more often than not, when it jumps up this dramatically right before the event it has yielded very well. This kind of trend is a lot more eye catching because we're not the day before the event. This is a forecast valid 12 hours in the future. It is worth noting that while this is a jump from a moderate value to a high value, even small increases to marginal values this late in the game can be significant as models can be latching onto a favorable signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Kevlon62 and I will be headed out towards the general area around Dubuque as it look right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Kevlon62 and I will be headed out towards the general area around Dubuque as it look right now... Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 This kind of trend is a lot more eye catching because we're not the day before the event. This is a forecast valid 12 hours in the future. It is worth noting that while this is a jump from a moderate value to a high value, even small increases to marginal values this late in the game can be significant as models can be latching onto a favorable signal. Yeah, I think the last time we had a day of jump upward like this was June 5th last year, and that day yielded significantly. Of course I am not saying this day will but just as a point of previous reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 22, 2011 Author Share Posted May 22, 2011 HRRR has consistently been showing stuff firing in Lower MI by mid afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 This kind of trend is a lot more eye catching because we're not the day before the event. This is a forecast valid 12 hours in the future. It is worth noting that while this is a jump from a moderate value to a high value, even small increases to marginal values this late in the game can be significant as models can be latching onto a favorable signal. I'm thinking further south right now...kind of looks like a big more chances of storm interactions the further north you go and closer to the forcing. I'm hoping for something big and isolated which the latest HRRR is hinting at in central IL south of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 HRRR has consistently been showing stuff firing in Lower MI by mid afternoon. So has the RUC and last couple NAM runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Good luck. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 So has the RUC and last couple NAM runs. Yep, the short wave along the IN/IL border looks like it could be a trigger. The question is will it be enough to break through the cap. Activity's already kicking off in Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 looking at 12z RUC, 12Z NAM just off the press and most importantly current conditions.. This is going to be a huge day.. while the 12z NAM is a little tamer, 12z RUC has 65 kt 700mb wind max punching into N IL at 21z....this often leads to very strong winds this time of year which is why SPC 45% wind probs here...that should be hatched later this may end up being a "high end" moderate day of central IL into WI..just look at all the spin out there around the low which will enhance the tornado threat also with the threat over a wide area all the way down into texas...if it wasn't for the insane April..this may be one of the top three events of the year giving the storm coverage over a decent population,at this time I think a 65+ prelim tornado report day is possible and a total severe report day of 800+ (12z to 12z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 The only thing that sucks about all this, is I work tonight which means I am going to sleep through most of the action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 I'm thinking further south right now...kind of looks like a big more chances of storm interactions the further north you go and closer to the forcing. I'm hoping for something big and isolated which the latest HRRR is hinting at in central IL south of I-80. I'm in agreement that things become more isolated the farther down the line you head. And the SREF is bringing a secondary area of higher probabilities into central Illinois at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 The only thing that sucks about all this, is I work tonight which means I am going to sleep through most of the action There's tomorrow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 22, 2011 Author Share Posted May 22, 2011 The only thing that sucks about all this, is I work tonight which means I am going to sleep through most of the action I'm sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 here is yesterdays report page which is pretty respectable..at this time I expect todays event to have about 3.2 times the number of tornado and total severe reports..which may be a tad conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 There's tomorrow too. Yeah I suppose my afterwork Monday nap could be eliminated if the potential is great enough I'm sorry. Is ok, Wednesday looking better and better with each model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Is ok, Wednesday looking better and better with each model run Really? It looks like a deformation-type setup to me versus a severe weather setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Really? It looks like a deformation-type setup to me versus a severe weather setup. NAM/Ukie/GGEM further north, and trending N with each run. Its more or less something to monitor, depends on the strength of that Upper Low over Canada. If it's strong then we are missed to the south if it isn't as strong or transient then we could sneak a risk out for the Southern half of the state. Of course the better potential will be further south as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 NAM/Ukie/GGEM further north, and trending N with each run. Its more or less something to monitor, depends on the strength of that Upper Low over Canada. If it's strong then we are missed to the south if it isn't as strong or transient then we could sneak a risk out for the Southern half of the state. I guess we'll see. I would prefer if we had more amplification of the ridge with the actual front settling to the south, but I guess the chance for a severe weather event isn't zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 We're about an hour away from full on ball soup wx up here and you gotta love those clear skies across Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin, sbcape should have no problem getting over 2500. Let's see how long convection can hold off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Well I'm in a pickle. Go to my GF's house this evening, where her parents aren't home, or stay home and track SEMI's best looking setup for severe wx of the season thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 22, 2011 Author Share Posted May 22, 2011 Well I'm in a pickle. Go to my GF's house this evening, where her parents aren't home, or stay home and track SEMI's best looking setup for severe wx of the season thus far. Need pics of the GF to decide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Need pics of the GF to decide. Creeper undertone I say go to GF, we will have more severe weather this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 you can see CU building in perhaps a convergence zone well ahead of the front over western MO into IA..the moisture return is over central IL in that cloud arc heading north..here 10 degree jumps in dewpoints occur as it moves north this may pop rather soon...new RUC hints at that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 22, 2011 Author Share Posted May 22, 2011 Creeper undertone I say go to GF, we will have more severe weather this year. I agree w/ you though...there will likely be better severe wx days later this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 you can see CU building in perhaps a convergence zone well ahead of the front over western MO into IA.. this may pop rather soon...new RUC hints at that i'm thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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