River Card Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Going into May it does look a brief dry period, hopefully we can eek out about 5 or 6 days and get the farms planted but the wet pattern should remain locked in. Intersting though, once the nina effects are gone, I would not be surprised if the summer went on to be slightly drier, no drought, but drier overall. Have to admit though with all the rain, the foliage looks absoloutly breathtaking, especially when the sun shines on it and it's still wet...pretty sight, makes the air smell nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 No end in site yet to the near constant stream of waves. Does look like a bit of a shift up in storm track -- headed out to the Plains/midwest on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 No end in site yet to the near constant stream of waves. Does look like a bit of a shift up in storm track -- headed out to the Plains/midwest on Sunday. where? why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 FWIW, the local met is predicting a rapid warmup as we get into May with some 90 degree days and possibly 100 (his words not mine!). He also thinks a ring of fire type pattern. Now that is laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 where? why? Not sure yet.. looks like maybe a upper Plains threat May 3-4? Depends on if sys right before is worth hitting.. if not we may just drive to OK/KS to stage. Going chasing through mid-mo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Not sure yet.. looks like maybe a upper Plains threat May 3-4? Depends on if sys right before is worth hitting.. if not we may just drive to OK/KS to stage. Going chasing through mid-mo. good luck catching a nice active period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 That is just totally ridiculous IMO. Yeah, I'm not sure if he meant 100 at some point this summer but it seemed like he meant May. I doubt it's ever happened in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 No end in site yet to the near constant stream of waves. Does look like a bit of a shift up in storm track -- headed out to the Plains/midwest on Sunday. The thing is I thought that a major system would break this pattern for a bit, how much more significant of a system can we get beyond what just happened yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 No end in site yet to the near constant stream of waves. Does look like a bit of a shift up in storm track -- headed out to the Plains/midwest on Sunday. Saturday/Sunday's system could finally provide first decent opportunity of severe weather for those who haven't had any this year (Southern Great Lakes/Northern Ohio Valley). The only 2 questions are will the Gulf of Mexico have recovered for ideal moisture return and will the dynamics be ideal with the low occluding well up into Canada with time. Climo in the region of question says no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 The thing is I thought that a major system would break this pattern for a bit, how much more significant of a system can we get beyond what just happened yesterday. I'm not totally thrilled with the pattern, though the one we've had in April isnt that great for chasing -- plus I don't really want to see cities destroyed.. but it does look like there is still a lot of energy around. Getting amplification might be tough with a -NAO and an east coast trough. I guess it'll make a good story that I went storm chasing during one of the worst years ever during a time when there were no tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 I'm not totally thrilled with the pattern, though the one we've had in April isnt that great for chasing -- plus I don't really want to see cities destroyed.. but it does look like there is still a lot of energy around. Getting amplification might be tough with a -NAO and an east coast trough. I guess it'll make a good story that I went storm chasing during one of the worst years ever during a time when there were no tornadoes. I think that things just get shunted to the Front Range and Great Plains for bit. So you still have a good shot at seeing stuff, if anything a better shot as most of those places have unobstructed visibility of well over 15 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 I think that things just get shunted to the Front Range and Great Plains for bit. So you still have a good shot at seeing stuff, if anything a better shot as most of those places have unobstructed visibility of well over 15 miles. That's my general impression. Questions are how much the gulf can stay open etc. I'd be fine with several slight risks that produce photogenic storms. GFS has advertised a bigger event off and on around next weekend but I'm not sure how much faith I have in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 That's my general impression. Questions are how much the gulf can stay open etc. I'd be fine with several slight risks that produce photogenic storms. GFS has advertised a bigger event off and on around next weekend but I'm not sure how much faith I have in that. Yeah I think there is decent chance of some slight risk action out there. When do you leave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Yeah I think there is decent chance of some slight risk action out there. When do you leave? Planning on heading out early Sunday morning.. try to get out to OK or maybe north depending on outlooks by late Mon. I guess we might still shift it up a bit if there is reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Planning on heading out early Sunday morning.. try to get out to OK or maybe north depending on outlooks by late Mon. I guess we might still shift it up a bit if there is reason. Yeah I am thinking it might be north of OK, though the dryline could always light up too down there. Of course probably best to get closer before making any sort of distinction on location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 Could have a really boring start to May..Not even seeing a reason to complain about much..Temps near normal and near normal precip..LOL I'm starting to think that April and May will be worlds apart.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 Euro has a nice sys in the Plains/Midwest next weekend now. All fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 Euro has a nice sys in the Plains/Midwest next weekend now. All fingers crossed. Indeed, lets just hope we don't end up with an East Coast trough all week or else the return flow will be crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 30, 2011 Author Share Posted April 30, 2011 Euro has a nice sys in the Plains/Midwest next weekend now. All fingers crossed. Good thing it's only a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 Could have a really boring start to May..Not even seeing a reason to complain about much..Temps near normal and near normal precip..LOL I'm starting to think that April and May will be worlds apart.. My hunch is the active pattern shifts north a little. We still have all the same ingredients for the hyper pattern to continue into May. Thus take note of the very unusual cold in Canada ( cant recall the last time i saw such cold coming into May up there? ) that is still had which is good for firing things up when it decides to wanna meet up with all the juice from the GOM and keep in mind it is May now and thus even better dynamics ( via heating/sun angle ) to work with too. The euro weeklies keep it below to much below normal ( first week of this month ) all the way till May 30th for the region. Ofcourse they can be wrong as well but all the wetness in and near the region suggests warmth/heat will have a harder time making it this far north and thus some support for them weeklies. We'll see anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 My hunch is the active pattern shifts north a little. We still have all the same ingredients for the hyper pattern to continue into May. Thus take note of the very unusual cold in Canada ( cant recall the last time i saw such cold coming into May up there? ) that is still had which is good for firing things up when it decides to wanna meet up with all the juice from the GOM and keep in mind it is May now and thus even better dynamics ( via heating/sun angle ) to work with too. The euro weeklies keep it below to much below normal ( first week of this month ) all the way till May 30th for the region. Ofcourse they can be wrong as well but all the wetness in and near the region suggests warmth/heat will have a harder time making it this far north and thus some support for them weeklies. We'll see anyways. I agree about things shifting north with time as you'd expect. The pattern over the next week to 10 days doesn't look as favorable for big severe outbreaks but that only takes us through the first part of May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 I agree about things shifting north with time as you'd expect. The pattern over the next week to 10 days doesn't look as favorable for big severe outbreaks but that only takes us through the first part of May. As i always say anything beyond day 3 is a crap shot with models so i won't rule anything out yet. But yeah for now it looks a little quieter on the severe wx front. We'll see anyways. Thankfully this area can deal with tons of rain so it wont hurt my feelings any if what they have had south of here makes it here. Ofcourse as i saw driving back from Ohio a few days ago i doubt those in N.OH feel the same with a number of the creeks and rivers nearing or just getting over the top down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 100% assure it will be bad on May 8th. There is a surprise birthday party (50th) for my wife and we have people coming in from several states. No way I can duck out or even arm chair chase online that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyrys Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Considering this past winter, it is only fitting that May begins with the 5am observation at Minneapolis showing light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 Wow, if you're looking for a spring/summer-like pattern, then forget it. Most of the indices suggests the same crap we've had for the past 3 weeks will continue for a while. Not great if you live down south of course, because the active pattern will likely continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Wow, if you're looking for a spring/summer-like pattern, then forget it. Most of the indices suggests the same crap we've had for the past 3 weeks will continue for a while. Not great if you live down south of course, because the active pattern will likely continue. The next 7-10 days look pretty damn nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Wow, if you're looking for a spring/summer-like pattern, then forget it. Most of the indices suggests the same crap we've had for the past 3 weeks will continue for a while. Not great if you live down south of course, because the active pattern will likely continue. Really doesn't look as bad as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Really doesn't look as bad as you said. Quad Cities NWS mentioned the possible development of an omega block and continued general below normal temps through at least mid May. While I and my garden would love a nice stretch of 70s and and a few 80s, at least now we are getting to the point where temps a little below normal are still pleasant(as long as there's not a chilly wind like today). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Sunday, May 1st: Hi: 64F Lo: 45F Overall Sky Conditions: Partly Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 27MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Wow, if you're looking for a spring/summer-like pattern, then forget it. Most of the indices suggests the same crap we've had for the past 3 weeks will continue for a while. Not great if you live down south of course, because the active pattern will likely continue. I agree, certainly dont see any big breaks in this ongoing parade of storms for the past 4 months lol. La-Nina is the problem. I'm just hoping this year does not end up like 2009 (summer)...Last year at this time I was at the beach' it was a El-Nino year tho, make a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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