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Severe threat april 14, Tornado outbreak possible


janetjanet998

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0430

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0836 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/FAR NERN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 135...

VALID 150136Z - 150300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 135 CONTINUES.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES WILL LIKELY

PERSIST BEYOND THE EXPIRATION TIME OF 03Z ACROSS SERN AND E-CNTRL OK

AND FAR NERN TX. IN THESE AREAS...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE

NEEDED.

EARLY EVENING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE COLD FRONT HAD

OVERTAKEN THE DRYLINE ACROSS NRN OK...AND EXTENDED FROM NRN OSAGE

COUNTY TO THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRYLINE JUST SE OF THE OKC METRO

AREA. THE DRYLINE EXTENDED FARTHER S-SW FROM THIS JUNCTURE TO THE

RED RIVER NEAR INTERSTATE 35 AND INTO N-CNTRL TX. AS THE COLD FRONT

CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS NERN OK...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL

LIKELY HAVE SHIFTED INTO NWRN AR BY 03Z. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE NE-SW

ORIENTATION OF THE OVERTAKING COLD FRONT...THE WARM/UNSTABLE SECTOR

FEATURING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG WILL PERSIST ACROSS

SERN/E-CNTRL OK PAST 03Z. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...JUXTAPOSED

WITH EFFECTIVE STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 200-400 M2/S2

/NOTABLY INCREASING/...WILL SUPPORT PERSISTENCE OF THE DISCRETE AND

SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL MODE WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR

TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT FOR STRONG

TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE MOST

DISCRETE CONVECTION AND UNDISTURBED INFLOW -- I.E. ACROSS THE SRN

TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES OF SERN OK AND ADJACENT COUNTIES OF FAR NERN

TX.

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I'm just west of Fort Smith in Sequoyah county, Oklahoma. I'll be here for the next few, but might have to take shelter in a bit. I'm in a mobile home and will go across the street to a more substantial home with my husband and kids if needed.

I do think it has taken more of a right turn, but you should go ahead and get out of your mobile home bro.

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New watch:

113

WWUS20 KWNS 150209

SEL6

SPC WW 150209

ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-150900-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 136

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

910 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARKANSAS

EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS

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