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4/11 torch/severe wx threat

LVblizzard

By LVblizzard,
in Philadelphia Region

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phlwx

phlwx

Posted
Posted

I know this spring is nothing like last spring... but do remember that last spring was just about the warmest ever. Try not to compare this spring to last spring ;)

This is almost 2007 bad...a day or two of torch followed by crappy wx for a week was pretty much the norm through late April. :axe:

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

This is almost 2007 bad...a day or two of torch followed by crappy wx for a week was pretty much the norm through late April. :axe:

Took a look thru the stats for PHL. For the last 40 days, PHL is still doing pretty well relative to past years, ranking 42nd warmest out of 138 years.

March 1-April 9 at PHL:  Average high temperature rankings
 1	64.8   1921
 2	64.0   1945
 3	62.0   2010
 4	61.7   1929
 5	60.1   1946
 6	60.0   2000
 7	59.4   1910
 8	58.9   1977
 9	58.6   1903
10	58.0   1986
11	57.8   1995, 1991
13	57.5   1913
14	57.4   1988
15	56.8   1987
16	56.6   1976
17	56.5   1979, 1968, 1942
20	56.2   1925
21	56.1   1948, 1878
23	56.0   2002, 1973
25	55.7   1985
26	55.6   1997, 1990, 1955, 1918
30	55.5   1998, 1936
32	55.4   1919
33	55.2   1999
34	55.0   2006
35	54.9   1894
36	54.8   1963, 1953
38	54.7   2008, 1898
40	54.5   1974, 1959
42	54.1   2011, 2009, 1994, 1949
46	54.0   2003, 1935, 1908
49	53.8   2004, 1938
51	53.6   1927
52	53.5   2007, 1920, 1882
55	53.4   1954
56	53.2   1989, 1981, 1951, 1930, 1928, 1902
62	53.1   1983
63	53.0   1964, 1923, 1922
66	52.7   1897
67	52.4   1907, 1905
69	52.2   1966, 1943
71	52.0   1961
72	51.9   1962
73	51.8   1934
74	51.7   1969
75	51.6   1992
76	51.5   2005, 1957, 1952
79	51.4   1909
80	51.1   1980, 1933, 1917
83	50.9   1889
84	50.8   2001
85	50.7   1975
86	50.6   1971, 1912
88	50.4   1967, 1901
90	50.2   1982, 1939, 1931, 1893
94	50.1   1978, 1924
96	50.0   1950
97	49.9   1972, 1880
99	49.8   1947
100	49.5   1879
101	49.4   1904
102	49.2   1932
103	49.1   1993
104	49.0   1944, 1926, 1911, 1886
108	48.9   1956
109	48.7   1874
110	48.6   1915
111	48.3   1970, 1958, 1890
114	48.2   1900, 1884, 1883
117	48.1   1941, 1895
119	48.0   1996, 1899, 1892
122	47.9   1914
123	47.8   1937
124	47.5   1965
125	47.2   1940
126	46.8   1888
127	46.7   1877
128	46.6   1876
129	46.5   1887
130	46.2   1984, 1906
132	45.7   1891
133	45.2   1875
134	44.7   1881
135	44.6   1960
136	44.5   1916, 1896
138	42.9   1885

However, looking at the last 20 days, and PHL falls WAY down to 97th out of 138 years.

March 21-April 9 at PHL:  Average high temperature rankings
 1	69.6   1929
 2	69.3   1945
 3	67.8   2010
 4	67.7   1921
 5	67.5   1910
 6	64.9   1968
 7	64.4   1948
 8	63.5   1986
 9	63.1   1998
10	63.0   1963
11	62.5   1988, 1981
13	62.4   1949
14	62.3   2000
15	62.2   1991
16	62.0   1999, 1946
18	61.9   1913
19	61.6   1987
20	61.4   1997
21	61.0   1994, 1928
23	60.9   1976
24	60.5   1903
25	60.2   1920
26	60.0   1962, 1905
28	59.8   1953
29	59.2   1959
30	59.1   1977, 1907
32	58.8   1989, 1978, 1918, 1908
36	58.5   1995, 1942
38	58.4   1979
39	58.3   1952, 1925
41	57.9   2009
42	57.8   1969, 1919
44	57.7   1985, 1936
46	57.6   2007, 2006, 2003, 1922
50	57.5   2005, 1955
52	57.4   1951
53	57.3   1923, 1917
55	57.2   1954
56	57.1   1897
57	57.0   1938
58	56.8   1892
59	56.6   1932
60	56.5   2002, 1980
62	56.4   1909, 1878
64	56.3   1973
65	55.9   1893, 1882
67	55.8   1912
68	55.6   1993
69	55.5   1934
70	55.4   1947, 1902
72	55.3   1967
73	55.2   2004, 1960
75	55.1   2008, 1943, 1926
78	55.0   1961, 1950
80	54.9   1904
81	54.8   1974
82	54.6   1931
83	54.5   1941, 1935, 1889
86	54.2   1924
87	54.1   1933
88	53.9   1975
89	53.8   1970, 1880
91	53.7   1992, 1957
93	53.5   1930
94	53.2   1983, 1939
96	53.1   1944
97	53.0   2011
98	52.9   1966, 1888
100	52.8   2001
101	52.7   1914, 1901, 1890
104	52.6   1915, 1895, 1884
107	52.5   1971, 1964
109	52.4   1898
110	52.1   1911
111	52.0   1982
112	51.9   1937
113	51.8   1984, 1916
115	51.5   1990, 1886
117	51.4   1900
118	51.2   1956
119	51.1   1958, 1894
121	51.0   1940, 1877
123	50.4   1887, 1875
125	50.2   1996, 1927
127	50.0   1972, 1906, 1879
130	49.0   1891, 1874
132	48.9   1885
133	48.7   1965
134	48.6   1883
135	48.5   1896
136	48.1   1876
137	47.6   1899
138	43.6   1881

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LVblizzard

LVblizzard

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Posted

Do we actually have a legitimate chance of thunderstorm activity tomorrow? SPC was hinting that they expect the coastal plain to remain too stable.

The farther SE you go, the less chance you have of seeing a storm. You're probably on the border for tomorrow's event, while Voyager, PSUHazletonWx, and I are sitting pretty.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Do we actually have a legitimate chance of thunderstorm activity tomorrow? SPC was hinting that they expect the coastal plain to remain too stable.

You may be too far east. General rule of thumb I have: southerly winds usually eliminate the T-storm threat from a Wilimington-Allentown line eastward. They'll likely be rapidly falling apart upon nearing the DE River.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

The farther SE you go, the less chance you have of seeing a storm. You're probably on the border for tomorrow's event, while Voyager, PSUHazletonWx, and I are sitting pretty.

Hazleton has a much better chance than Allentown in this set-up, but yeah, you're not too bad (although the storms will probably be past their prime).

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atownwxwatcher

atownwxwatcher

Posted
Posted

00z NAM has come out and has waken up somewhat from its slumber (usually happens at 24 and under) at 18 Z in Western PA CAPE is 500-1000..However SW PA is now 1000-1500 ..By 21 Z that CAPE is shifting East (though a thin band of 1000-1500 stretches back west along the PA /MD border into SW PA) with SC PA to E PA in 1000-1500..Lift index is essentially -2 to -4 across the whole state of PA at 18 Z ..at 21 Z it has lowered in NW PA and there is -4 to -6 across NE PA..SWEAT index is 300 in western pa all but extreme NW at 18 Z..East of there in C PA it is at 350. At 21 Z SWEAT index from SW PA along the MD border curving to the NE into C PA is 350 until you get to NE PA where it is 400. All and all in my opinion , the 00z NAM has become very favorable for severe weather..especially from SW PA into E PA....

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phlwx

phlwx

Posted
Posted

Best severe chances today will be generally be in Central and Western PA...although some lee enhancement as the storms slide off of Blue Mountain could make things interesting across Lancaster and Berks for a time before the storms begin to weaken later.

This is mostly evening/nighttime for everyone in Philly's CWA, IMO...but if storms do get in a couple of hrs earlier they could have more pop with them due to peak daytime heating.

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phlwx

phlwx

Posted
Posted

Took a look thru the stats for PHL. For the last 40 days, PHL is still doing pretty well relative to past years, ranking 42nd warmest out of 138 years.

March 1-April 9 at PHL:  Average high temperature rankings
42	54.1   2011, 2009, 1994, 1949
46	54.0   2003, 1935, 1908
49	53.8   2004, 1938
51	53.6   1927
52	53.5   2007, 1920, 1882

However, looking at the last 20 days, and PHL falls WAY down to 97th out of 138 years.

March 21-April 9 at PHL:  Average high temperature rankings
46	57.6   2007, 2006, 2003, 1922
50	57.5   2005, 1955
52	57.4   1951
53	57.3   1923, 1917
55	57.2   1954
56	57.1   1897
57	57.0   1938
58	56.8   1892
59	56.6   1932
60	56.5   2002, 1980
62	56.4   1909, 1878
64	56.3   1973
65	55.9   1893, 1882
67	55.8   1912
68	55.6   1993
69	55.5   1934
70	55.4   1947, 1902
72	55.3   1967
73	55.2   2004, 1960
75	55.1   2008, 1943, 1926
78	55.0   1961, 1950
80	54.9   1904
81	54.8   1974
82	54.6   1931
83	54.5   1941, 1935, 1889
86	54.2   1924
87	54.1   1933
88	53.9   1975
89	53.8   1970, 1880
91	53.7   1992, 1957
93	53.5   1930
94	53.2   1983, 1939
96	53.1   1944
97	53.0   2011
98	52.9   1966, 1888
100	52.8   2001

'01 was another year I was thinking of comparison wise -- similar profile in the occasional spike followed by days of cool.

Meh, the upper low for midweek is really p--sing me off...was hoping that the damn thing didn't close off and would just scoot off the coast...60's for a few days would have been really nice.

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JTA66

JTA66

Posted
Posted

How warm do you think we will get tomorrow? Weather.com has 87 for here while the NWS forecast has 80.

I saw that last night ... my TWC forecast had a high of 87 for today. unsure.gif

The sun is finally breaking through the clouds; current temp 63.9. I'm thinking with a little luck we may see 80, but not counting on that right now.

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hudsonvalley21

hudsonvalley21

Posted
Posted

72F and torching in Villanova. Can already feel the pollen going crazy.

Starting to clear out.

http://www.meteo.psu...A/anim8vis.html

New meso disc. out for areas to the southwest.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0412

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1124 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...WV...AND PARTS OF SWRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 111624Z - 111700Z

A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON FROM ERN KY...THROUGH MUCH

OF WV AND POSSIBLY INTO SWRN PA. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE

PRIMARY THREAT...BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH 100-200 M2 PER

S2/ IS SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO THREAT.

THE AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AT THIS

TIME...ACROSS ERN KY...WV INTO SWRN PA WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE

GIVEN ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS

AROUND 60 F. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS ALREADY SUPPORTIVE FOR

ORGANIZED STORMS WITH VALUES OF 40-60 KT. MEANWHILE... A FAST

MOVING /ENE AT 55 KT/ LINE OF CONVECTION OVER SRN KY IS ATTENDANT TO

A LONG-LIVED MCV...WITH THIS ACTIVITY LOCATED ALONG A WIND SHIFT

EXTENDING FROM SWRN TN TO FAR WRN WV AND FAR NWRN PA. GIVEN THE

FORWARD SPEED OF THE SRN KY CONVECTION AND FORCING FOR ASCENT AS

GREATER HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM

THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO SRN PLAINS...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP

AND SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS ERN KY INTO WV AND MAY AFFECT SWRN PA.

HOWEVER... ONGOING CONVECTION OVER SWRN PA MAY TEND TO LIMIT

AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND THE OVERALL NWD EXTENT OF SEVERE

WEATHER INTO THIS REGION.

..PETERS.. 04/11/2011

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