ag3 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 OMG! Its rain. Look at 850 maps i posted. Even NWNJ is on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I thought I wouldn't get to post this again this year....but here we go. LOL.. I was expecting that the next time we were in a high risk zone for severe weather... or maybe at least moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I think the consistency between the EURO/GFS makes the potential of this becoming a major event more significant. When those two agree, it's usually a winning combo in my experience (especially this close in). Definitely have higher confidence in this snow event than our last one in terms of snowfall potential for the city itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 With the much shorter wavelengths this time of year, I'm not sure all of the same model biases apply. It's a very different type of pattern from what you see in the middle of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I know GFS looks great but being realistic it's April 1st..every little think has to work out right for a storm this late in the season..really it's once in a decade deal here.Climo always sticks out it's ugly head especially in coastal locations.Hope I'm wrong though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 How do the surface winds look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I thought I wouldn't get to post this again this year....but here we go. Don't put the snowblower away just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 3 days peeps. Don't go weenie up just yet. Just be happy we have a nice signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The UKMET has a long-standing bias of being over-amplified. 12Z UKMET is closer to the coast with rain for the coastal plain, that is usually a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The UKMET has a long-standing bias of being over-amplified. Toward the end of the run, correct, in fact it is usually a waste of time to look at those maps, but inside of 72 hours it it usually too progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 3 days peeps. Don't go weenie up just yet. Just be happy we have a nice signal. I already locked up the solution in my mind therefore it is going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I do kind of wish the 500mb low was closing off a tad earlier. We saw the "consequences" of that happening slightly too late with the January 11th event--obviously that was a great storm, but a lot of areas didn't realize their full potential because of that. It also looks like the best PVA is AT 72 hours, which is when eastern LI and SNE get crushed the most...this event actually may very well have similar banding features that the Jan 11th event did, if it were to come to fruition like this. However, maybe the insanely INCREASING PVA between 66 and 72, which is when we get crushed, will be enough. A QPF field can't always be taken literally...you have to see if a certain QPF field makes sense given the forecast pattern. There is, however, earlier cyclogenesis than there was with the Jan 11th event, since this "hybrid" is originating a lot further south than the Jan 11th "Miller B". I think Jan 11th was also a hybrid, but it was more of a Miller B than this event is forecast to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Toward the end of the run, correct, in fact it is usually a waste of time to look at those maps, but inside of 72 hours it it usually too progressive. It's generally been just a poor and unreliable model over the past 6 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I already locked up the solution in my mind therefore it is going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Doug you have good points but the key was the last paragraph. The atmospheric process is different when the shortwave is coming from the Great Lakes (Jan 11) , and when it's coming from farther southwest like this system. This is actually a classic frontogenic banding signal on the GFS verbatim, but the chances of it being correct with the placement are rather slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I already locked up the solution in my mind therefore it is going to happen climo says we get rain, so therefore it wont happen. this has potential to be a historical storm, not because of snowfall amounts, but because april snowstorms for the big cities are rare and nyc can break snowfall records if it comes true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Doug you have good points but the key was the last paragraph. The atmospheric process is different when the shortwave is coming from the Great Lakes (Jan 11) , and when it's coming from farther southwest like this system. This is actually a classic frontogenic banding signal on the GFS verbatim, but the chances of it being correct with the placement are rather slim. The 700 banding looks insane for a 6hr time down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The GFS literally says, "you can take your climo into the bathroom with you and wipe your *** with it when your finished" Seriously, this is about as perfect of a run as we could have possibly gotten for this time of year. HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The 700 banding looks insane for a 6hr time down there. Yeah it's ridiculous...how many times have we seen similar maps this year? I'm not trying to shovel 90 pounds of crocus crushing snow...but the crazy inbred DGEX model seems to have a following now. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 78hrs to go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 78hrs to go.... GFS says it's more like 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I do kind of wish the 500mb low was closing off a tad earlier. We saw the "consequences" of that happening slightly too late with the January 11th event--obviously that was a great storm, but a lot of areas didn't realize their full potential because of that. It also looks like the best PVA is AT 72 hours, which is when eastern LI and SNE get crushed the most...this event actually may very well have similar banding features that the Jan 11th event did, if it were to come to fruition like this. However, maybe the insanely INCREASING PVA between 66 and 72, which is when we get crushed, will be enough. A QPF field can't always be taken literally...you have to see if a certain QPF field makes sense given the forecast pattern. There is, however, earlier cyclogenesis than there was with the Jan 11th event, since this "hybrid" is originating a lot further south than the Jan 11th "Miller B". I think Jan 11th was also a hybrid, but it was more of a Miller B than this event is forecast to be. The thing is the Jan 11 event was very close to being huge for us-- so this is still a great signal. The fact that this is originating further south should also help out. Remember that, with Jan 11, there was 15" of snow as far west as Eastern Nassau. Obviously we won't get anything like that, but we could see some accumulation out of this quite easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Yeah it's ridiculous...how many times have we seen similar maps this year? I'm not trying to shovel 90 pounds of crocus crushing snow...but the crazy inbred DGEX model seems to have a following now. Unreal. Ha I would like it to stall for awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The GFS literally says, "you can take your climo into the bathroom with you and wipe your *** with it when your finished" Seriously, this is about as perfect of a run as we could have possibly gotten for this time of year. HECS. I like that we're actually evolving to this solution instead of having it 7 days out and moving away from it. Where are all the snow haters now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 climo says we get rain, so therefore it wont happen. this has potential to be a historical storm, not because of snowfall amounts, but because april snowstorms for the big cities are rare and nyc can break snowfall records if it comes true. I hope if this verifies someone comes up with an April 2011 sn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 GFS says it's more like 66. energy coming ashore very soon. THe H5 signal is similar to 12/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 This may be the last time we get to model watch a potential snowstorm before next year. Enjoy it Dr. Yes in 1 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 QPF looks very good. Storm Vista snowfall output is very impressive again.. .like it was 6Z.. it is producing widespread 6 inch totals, even near NYC.. it even has a couple of 12-18 inch maximums, interestingly near Trenton and then in extreme northern NJ and southeastern NY.. but I am not going to go nuts that we will get those kind of snowfall totals... well, at least not yet.. This time of year, I probably almost have to see it actually happen to believe it. but hey.. it's possible.. it has happened before.. not too often, but it's not like it's mid April yet Ray is going to be so pissed off if this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I already locked up the solution in my mind therefore it is going to happen if you think you can, you will..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 If this occurs what's the timetable. I'm from Detroit flying out to new York Friday for the weekend Yanks/tigs games. Might just sell my tickets and stay home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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