MJO812 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 What happened to the 2nd storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 What happened to the 2nd storm? Way south. Understandable with this BOMB forming and retrograding and stalling. Who cares about the second storm now. This threat is only 5.5 to 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Very uncommon...Nov 10-12, 1987 is one off the top of my head. It wasn't nearly as strong, but the storm a couple of days after the Blizzard of 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Way south. Understandable with this BOMB forming and retrograding and stalling. Who cares about the second storm now. This threat is only 5.5 to 7 days out. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Does anyone have a analog storm that gave DC and Boson mecs and not as extream in nyc and phl? With a -NAO where you are lacking either a true 50/50 low or one placed too far north or east along with a posititively titled trough its a plausible scenario...and in this case we have exactly....wow....look at that LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 With a -NAO where you are lacking either a true 50/50 low or one placed too far north or east along with a posititively titled trough its a plausible scenario...and in this case we have exactly....wow....look at that LOL Yeah DC get most of there snow from the clipper and Boston gets in from the costal......screw zone between to the two, good thing we are 144 hrs out....not 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 luckily, this is a miller b in a moderate nina... a north trend wouldn't be shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 luckily, this is a miller b in a moderate nina... a north trend wouldn't be shocking over the past year of model watching, it seems as if most storms trend west inside 5 days on the models. What do you mean by north trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 over the past year of model watching, it seems as if most storms trend west inside 5 days on the models. What do you mean by north trend? As we get closer to events, the models usually trend the storms north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 over the past year of model watching, it seems as if most storms trend west inside 5 days on the models. What do you mean by north trend? Last year was an El Nino with strong blocking. In a La Nina period, the SE ridge is usually stronger and storms tend to trend north as most models usually over do the block and cold. But that rule can be broken at any time, of course. Especially right now with how strong the Blocking is being forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Low maybe 80-100 miles or so se of BM at hr 156, but a nice step up from 00z. Courtesy Coastalwx in New England thread in reference to the ECM ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Last year was an El Nino with strong blocking. In a La Nina period, the SE ridge is usually stronger and storms tend to trend north as most models usually over do the block and cold. But that rule can be broken at any time, of course. Especially right now with how strong the Blocking is being forecasted. okay thanks, i dont know if he was referring to the euro run or in general, but the euro took the storm up to Maine and then retrogrades and stalls. my question was what did he mean when he said it could trend more north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 ECM means (ensemble) Appears to be more north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 How many times have we seen Miller B's trend north? Don't be fooled...this has NE and Mid Atl screwjob written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 How many times have we seen Miller B's trend north? Don't be fooled...this has NE and Mid Atl screwjob written all over it. In terms of Miller B's if you're in central jersey northeastward you're looking pretty decent right now...we'll see what happens though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 How many times have we seen Miller B's trend north? Don't be fooled...this has NE and Mid Atl screwjob written all over it. I doubt that. A lot of cold air is coming in after the midweek system. The cold air will be in place for this storm. We also have a block in Canada, so this storm can't go too far north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Not a bad trend started by the Euro (GGEM looks similar at 144) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 How many times have we seen Miller B's trend north? Don't be fooled...this has NE and Mid Atl screwjob written all over it. This won't be the case where the storm will trend way too far north or west because the blocking and 50/50 will make sure that doesn't happen. I wouldn't be surprised to see it end up like our December 19th storm of last year but a bit further north. The biggest concern for me with the storm is not the lack of cold or the possibility that it will trend too far north and west, but rather that it could be suppressed or more offshore. I think the system being more offshore is the biggest worry but I do like that the models don't have us in the bulls eye this far out. If they did, then I'd be worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I don't mean rain for the Mid Atl...the cold is there....but wouldn't a N trend keep this storm from developing in time at least for MD and DEL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I don't mean rain for the Mid Atl...the cold is there....but wouldn't a N trend keep this storm from developing in time at least for MD and DEL? Yes. Our area would be in good shape and get snow, while they get either nothing or rain,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I don't mean rain for the Mid Atl...the cold is there....but wouldn't a N trend keep this storm from developing in time at least for MD and DEL? Absolutely...Miller B + La nina=North trend...however in this case we cannot ignore the strength of the block so it is definitely possible that this doesn't trend as much north as it does west and ends up being an I-95 special AT least PHL to BOS maybe DC and Balt also but climo favors areas NE of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 With a -NAO where you are lacking either a true 50/50 low or one placed too far north or east along with a posititively titled trough its a plausible scenario...and in this case we have exactly....wow....look at that LOL Vet Day storm 1987 comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 So is southern PA in a good spot for this storm? That is if there is trending? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Absolutely...Miller B + La nina=North trend...however in this case we cannot ignore the strength of the block so it is definitely possible that this doesn't trend as much north as it does west and ends up being an I-95 special AT least PHL to BOS maybe DC and Balt also but climo favors areas NE of there. I meant to suggest that maybe the block won't be as epic as currently model. They do have a tendency to appear stronger a week out....at least in my (limited) experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 So is southern PA in a good spot for this storm? That is if there is trending? 150+ hours away.......... ......... .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Yeah that track is tough to get...we saw something semi-similar on Dec 26-27, 2004 but not in that setup. That was more of a miller A that hit far SE VA and then hooked up and hit E NE. I think in this setup, we'll probably see a more straight forward Miller B development...though a retrograde solution cannot be discounted given the train wreck in the N ATL. So Nov 1987 and Dec 2004 are the only two times you can recall that this happened, Will? Were they both in el ninos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 150+ hours away.......... ......... .... Yeah I know, it is just that...sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 So is southern PA in a good spot for this storm? That is if there is trending? Right now, you are. We have to see if this storm trends more northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 So Nov 1987 and Dec 2004 are the only two times you can recall that this happened, Will? Were they both in el ninos? Albeit similar, the track and storm type for Dec 2004 does not fit the type we may see this wknd...and apparently Nov 87 happened to produce those snow totals not due to track but banding? (I forgot who mentioned it earlier) So in reality this type of setup is most likely extremely rare and I bet it doesn't end up happening as modeled by the euro this aftn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Right now, you are. We have to see if this storm trends more northward. We should be happy just to have something to track at this point lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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