Thundersnow12 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 storm is about 20 miles southwest of where I saw my first tornado. kind of surprised LBB office tor warned that given probably high bases thanks to the high T/Td spreads, never has had that good of rotation at low levels, all convergent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 storm is about 20 miles southwest of where I saw my first tornado. kind of surprised LBB office tor warned that given probably high bases thanks to the high T/Td spreads, never has had that good of rotation at low levels, all convergent. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 701 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN FLOYD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS. SOUTHEASTERN HALE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS. NORTHWESTERN CROSBY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS. * UNTIL 730 PM CDT * AT 657 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD 10 MILES WEST OF PETERSBURG...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF ABERNATHY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 21z SREF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Tony I see you lurking..any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Tony I see you lurking..any thoughts? I'm wary of that...I don't know if the cap will break along/S of the warm front w/o a substantial lift mechanism...there is subtle lift but will it be enough? If it is, I could even see a strong (~EF2) tornado result in srn IA...but I just personally don't really see it happening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2011 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN MO/SRN IA INTO NWRN IL... ..NERN KS INTO NRN MO...IA...NRN IL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SUN MORNING ACROSS ERN IA..SRN MN...SRN WI AND NRN IL IN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME ON THE NOSE OF A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN MINIMAL MELTING/RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD END FROM W TO E...BUT MAY PERSIST OVER NRN IL INTO SRN WI/MI N OF THE WARM FRONT. SOME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TOWARDS THE MO RIVER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED WARM FRONT TO THE E ACTING AS FOCI FOR REDEVELOPMENT. AMPLE FLOW/DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF TORNADO BUT STORMS SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY CROSS THE BOUNDARY WITH A REMAINING HAIL THREAT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR WEST DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COLD FRONT DUE TO THE UPPER WAVE PASSING BY...FROM NERN KS INTO NWRN MO. THUS...WILL KEEP ONLY MINIMAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN THESE AREAS FOR MARGINAL HAIL/WIND DURING THE EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Latest SREF moves the bullseye further north into central/east central Iowa later today. Last night's SPC WRF broke the cap and initiated convection over this area as well. Will have to watch how the instability evolves. Latest visible shows some clearing already in far southern Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Latest RUC shows a very nice plume of instability nosing into eastern Iowa. Although overdone, it's still an indication of a corridor of respectable instability. Visible satellite shows southern Iowa completely cleared out now, so lower 70s look quite likely in this area later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 looking at the 12z RUC alone I would say any chance and something to spin and possibly produce a tornado would be extreme eastern IA into northwest IL from DBQ to to east of DVN where the sfc winds are better on the nose of the instability and theta-e axis. It is pushing the front through IA quickly with westerly 850's all the way to IOW by 0z. No turning from H85 to H5 is a problem, there a bit more southwesterly the closer you get to IL. Also going to have to watch clearing obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Very impressive thunder and cloud to ground lightning in Naperville, WSW of Chicago. Been a long time to hear that kind of thunder, also as I'm typing observing some small pea sized hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2011 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF KS/MO/IA/IL/WI... SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS PRESENT TODAY OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SD/NEB. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. ..IA/MO/IL/WI A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR MANY HOURS...MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. STRONG HEATING HAS COMMENCED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS PRECIP SHIELD OVER PORTIONS OF IA/MO AND INTO CENTRAL IL. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO HELPING TO MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE THIS REGION WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF MO. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH HEATING/MOISTENING AND SOME DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING AS FAR NORTH AS THE WI/IL BORDER. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE ON THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCS AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ACTIVITY SHOULD INTENSIFY ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL IA AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN...BUT LATEST HRRR SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AS FAR EAST AS THE CHI AREA. ..KS/OK THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM IA INTO CENTRAL KS AND NORTHWEST OK BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FULL SUNSHINE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO LOCALLY ELIMINATE THE CAP...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN KS WHERE WEAK UPWARD FORCING IS ALSO EXPECTED. ANY STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THIS AXIS WILL POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WINDOW FOR THIS THREAT WOULD BE 23-02Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Well I have to live these vicariously through you guys now. I'll heading into work in an hour and will definitely be following along this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Well I have to live these vicariously through you guys now. I'll heading into work in an hour and will definitely be following along this evening. We always appreciate your input. The surface winds do look to veer south-southwesterly later this afternoon. The thing I like though is the steady progression of stronger winds as you go higher in the column. Very smooth looking hodo. Also, the H5 winds of 55+kts are screaming in from almost due westerly. The added bonus of 100+kts above H3 over northern Iowa later today will only help matters. I'm definitely still pretty intrigued by this setup. It's close enough that even though there are some doubts I may have to run out west of Iowa City here a bit later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 We always appreciate your input. The surface winds do look to veer south-southwesterly later this afternoon. The thing I like though is the steady progression of stronger winds as you go higher in the column. Very smooth looking hodo. Also, the H5 winds of 55+kts are screaming in from almost due westerly. The added bonus of 100+kts above H3 over northern Iowa later today will only help matters. I'm definitely still pretty intrigued by this setup. It's close enough that even though there are some doubts I may have to run out west of Iowa City here a bit later. Most of the globals were showing that really nice jet streak punching over the top of Iowa later today. The veering is definitely concerning, but a few of the globals were hinting at a sort of meso low along the IA/MO border that might back winds in a relative sense to the ambient flow. HRRR is showing what appears to be a broken line of supercells with the latest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Some nice hailers possible later today from Quad Cities over to Chi town. Spring has arrived with the start of the svr season. Looks rather active this week. Offer your comments OceanStwx and check in as needed from Down East. I do wonder about moisture, though. Dews are presently pretty low quite the mileage south from the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Some nice elevated looking towers floating overhead right now. Some clearing is visible off to the south. The main tornado threat will remain west of the QC, but if we can get something to pop near the warm front later on there is a small chance we could see something decent even here. SRH will be better near the Mississippi, but instability will be lacking compared to areas further west. Going to be an interesting afternoon/eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Some nice elevated looking towers floating overhead right now. Some clearing is visible off to the south. The main tornado threat will remain west of the QC, but if we can get something to pop near the warm front later on there is a small chance we could see something decent even here. SRH will be better near the Mississippi, but instability will be lacking compared to areas further west. Going to be an interesting afternoon/eve. Ya only shot at a tornado is going to be if/when a storm can cross the warm front and ingest better vorticity. After that it will cross it and go elevated. sunshine should be here by 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 70/56 at Kansas City with nice sw wind gusting to 24 mph. Bring up that warmth and moisture! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Morning batch of non-severe storms, with some pea-size hail, just moved out. The temp is currently in the mid 40s, but the sun is already poking out and it's in the 60s to the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 This may be pressing it a bit with regards to tor potential, but it is what it is on RUC for this evening. http://wxcaster4.com/ruc/CENTRAL_RUC236_ATMOS_STP_09HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 There's a 30% area on the day 3 outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Can you add today to the thread title...so we don't end up with someone making another thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 LOT HWO BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH OVERNIGHT. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING...TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG WIND FIELD ALREADY IN PLACE...COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGER HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Kind of surprised to see them back off on the new SWODY2. If anything, I thought this morning's runs looked more promising for the KS/NE border area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 The warm front just passed through here. We've shot up from 49 to 53 over the past 10 minutes. Latest RUC continues to break the cap and initiate convection along the cold front around 20-21z. Surface dews continue to steadily increase in the warm sector in southern Iowa. Most of that area has 52-55 dewpoints now. We should be able to get them in the 57-60 degree range by the time the convection really takes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 LOT HWO BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH OVERNIGHT. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING...TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG WIND FIELD ALREADY IN PLACE...COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGER HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. Some really nice mid level lapse rates over central IA that should advect that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 already upper 60 temps and a low 70 in southeast IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Some really nice mid level lapse rates over central IA that should advect that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 2000 CAPE and CIN of -50 now in ne KS per SPC meso page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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