Dec 5th and 6-8 threats

[tombo82685]

http://www.weatherof...t/global_e.html

hr 168 http://www.weatherof...cast/hde_50.gif

hr 192 http://www.weatherof...cast/hdj_50.gif

hr 216 http://www.weatherof...cast/hdk_50.gif

hr 240 http://www.weatherof...cast/hdf_50.gif

http://ggweather.com.../canada_all.htm

thanks

[Thunder Road]

raw data comes in with 0.87" for KPHL and all snow

1.10" for KPNE

take a look at hr 300: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kpne

850mb temp of only -5 C, yet a 2m temp between -5 and 9 F? Either that's a mistake, or someone explain it to me.

[Allsnow]

Tim -- looks like about the same as progged on tonight's GFS, probably a bit further east (which aided in keeping NYC out of the major snows).

Ray's page, H5 charts:

http://www.njfreeway...llibarMaps.html

Thanks Tom......

[MJO812]

raw data comes in with 0.87" for KPHL and all snow

1.10" for KPNE

take a look at hr 300: http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=kpne

850mb temp of only -5 C, yet a 2m temp between -5 and 9 F? Either that's a mistake, or someone explain it to me.

It shows single digits around these parts. The ensemble mean also agrees with the op on the big cold outbreak.

[nzucker]

PV situated over western hudson bay, good position for a mid atlantic/coastal storm. Usually when you see the PV over eastern hudson's bay, there's a good chance the event will be suppressed. But taken verbatim, yeah, this is about as good as it gets. Nice ridge axis poking up in the intermountain West, 50-50 and block downstream. At this point I'm more worried about a miss to the south than a Lakes cutter. The chances of the latter occurring are virtually nil w/ a strong neg nao/ao.

Also note that there are some higher heights over Alaska North Slope in conjunction with the GoA low...sort of a Rex block/semi -EPO that draws the cold into Canada. That PV has some really frigid air associated with it, and it would turn brutally cold after the storm with 850s approaching -15C.

0z GFS ensemble mean still likes the idea of a storm.

Looks like a cold storm too. Very happy with the airmass in place prior to the event, especially by early December standards when highs are still typically in the mid 40s.

[Isotherm]

Thanks Tom......

I just hope we don't get screwed out of a good pattern and watch as folks to our south get hammered. There always seems to be a fly in the ointment in la nina years, so I'm not getting excited yet.

[Allsnow]

I just hope we don't get screwed out of a good pattern and watch as folks to our south get hammered. There always seems to be a fly in the ointment in la nina years, so I'm not getting excited yet.

Agree Tom.....Nice to see a threat on the map....and its something to watch. Look foward to some good disscussion this week.

[SACRUS]

I just hope we don't get screwed out of a good pattern and watch as folks to our south get hammered. There always seems to be a fly in the ointment in la nina years, so I'm not getting excited yet.

I agree and the lack of consistency on most guidance of late adds to the concern. It is encouraging to see the kind of blocking and subsequent pattern that could offer plenty of potential a good chunk of December. That Dec 7 - Dec 12 period looks promising so far....

[CooL]

wow i leave disgusted at the 18z gfs, i come back and the 00z shows a monster and the board is lit up. I really like that arctic air associated and available in the storm time period. This is going to be a fun week if more models come on board. Lookin forward to the new euro

[tombo82685]

its going to be interesting to see the euro...

[SACRUS]

We'll have t o wait for the better maps in about an hour, but the GGEM seems to support the light snow event that the euro had for the mid altantic next sunday.

Waiting on the later panels for the dec 6 - 8th threat.

[tombo82685]

if im staying up for the euro i expect everyone else in this thread to also lol

[atownwxwatcher]

if im staying up for the euro i expect everyone else in this thread to also lol

I will be here-no problem!

[CooL]

if im staying up for the euro i expect everyone else in this thread to also lol

My eyes are peeled, im wired and ready to go.

[Manny]

if im staying up for the euro i expect everyone else in this thread to also lol

Yes sir. lol I'll try to stay up, The GFS was encouraging, let's see if the Euro stays put.

[tombo82685]

We'll have t o wait for the better maps in about an hour, but the GGEM seems to support the light snow event that the euro had for the mid altantic next sunday.

Waiting on the later panels for the dec 6 - 8th threat.

heres the hr 144, looks pretty good for dec 5th

[tombo82685]

Snow depth at 240 hrs

[Riptide]

Snow depth at 240 hrs

Impressive.

[wederwarrior]

Snow depth at 240 hrs

lookin good!

What time does the euro come out?

[tombo82685]

lookin good!

What time does the euro come out?

it starts around 1250, but the time period we are looking for prob wont be till about 115

[tombo82685]

looks like the low position may be a hair north of the euro

[CooL]

the ggem looks pretty far north with that clipper.

[SACRUS]

heres the hr 144, looks pretty good for dec 5th

GGEM looks mighty cold D 8 - 10.

[Chris L]

GGEM looks mighty cold D 8 - 10.

That will help the next storm.....

[SACRUS]

[tombo82685]

the ggem looks pretty far north with that clipper.

yea its not bad, id like it another 150 miles north or so, usually best snow with clippers are within 75-200 miles to the north of the track. I would imagine we get some precip with that track, but the heaviest would be down by dc

[tombo82685]

im not sure the ggem would turn the corner on this one, the ridge axis looks a lil further east than the gfs, it would be close tho

[mattinpa]

I'll be up for the Euro. My caution is that the storm on the GFS is 9 days away, and the possible clipper 6 days, so I'm sure we'll be on a ride. I'm happy for now that there are threats.

[MJO812]

The GGEM looks slower than the GFS.

[wxmeddler]

Snow depth at 240 hrs

Oh gosh.. now there are weenie maps at hr 240.. lord help the weenies.