Chris L Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Where is everyone for crying out loud? Our first legit snow threat and I have heard crickets in here all day. GGEM? Ukie? GFS Ens Anthony? WTF is wrong with you people? This is no where as big as Eastern.... One day, we will get the same amount of members as they used to have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 This is no where as big as Eastern.... One day, we will get the same amount of members as they used to have. We don't really need that. Why is everyone so stuck on being the biggest. I just want it to be the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 In the upcoming days, if everything falls in place, this forum will go nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 We don't really need that. Why is everyone so stuck on being the biggest. I just want it to be the best. I know, right. Eastern was probably overcrowded in a sense. It was out of control before the creation of regional subforums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 In the upcoming days, if everything falls in place, this forum will go nuts. I agree. Give it 2-3 days and this place will feel like home again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Interesting. Great sign. FWIW the Canadian ensembles have a pretty strong low moving well east of the BM. It was a welcome trend from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 The 18z GFS should be interesting but we'll probably be asking for the 0z GFS. It looks like the GFS won't win this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 The 18z GFS should be interesting but we'll probably be asking for the 0z GFS. It looks like the GFS won't win this one. For all the Jets fans out there..this storm has a modeled start time of late saturday night into sunday and it could very well continue into Monday...esp in Mass where the game is being played. Could make for a very interesting game. A lot of speculation obviously, for all we know this may not amplify and be more of a light event, but is at least fun to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 NWS Long term /Thursday night through Monday/... a blocking upper high S of Greenland and an upper trough over New England will maintain cold conditions through the period... and per the last two runs of the European model (ecmwf)...steer a digging northern stream shortwave across the northern plains Friday night-Sat...and then across the Ohio Valley to the middle Atlantic coast Sat night- Sunday... with rapid cyclogenesis off the middle Atlantic coast Sunday into Sunday night. The 12z European model (ecmwf) has trended a little farther north and now brings precipitation into the area Sunday night- Monday...especially to Long Island/CT...with 800 mb temperatures and partial thicknesses all supporting snow. The 12z ggem through 12z Sunday supports this general idea...while the much slower 12z GFS is at least a day later and more than a dollar short in bringing this system about...with the bulk of its precipitation remaining offshore Monday night-Tue. Due to the forecast uncertainty have forecast only slight chance pop for Sunday-Monday...with p-type snow inland... and rain/snow at the coast during the day and all snow at night http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=OKX&StateCode=NY&SafeCityName=Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 The 18z GFS should be interesting but we'll probably be asking for the 0z GFS. It looks like the GFS won't win this one. This storm represents a fascinating early test of the models-- especially the GFS, with all its upgrades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 It looks at this time like the GGEM/ECMWF are showing this clipper to the south of NJ, with most of the snow in the central Mid Atlantic (I'm not taking the GFS yet as a serious consideration as it still seems to have difficulty handling the pattern for this time frame, also the ECM/GGEM recently seem to have catched onto trends earlier than the GFS). There's still a few days left so the storm will probably trend, but with the cold air and the -NAO in place, is there a chance that it trends north to put the main snow bands near NJ/NYC or does it seem likely that the clipper stays suppressed with the best chance of snow in the central Mid Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 GFS is still saying "What storm?". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 nada on the gfs thru 174 hr. does not look like it heard the euro from earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Probably the GFS losing the storm in the medium-range again, only to bring it back with 3-4 days left... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 GFS has been consistent pretty much with the no storm theme now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Probably the GFS losing the storm in the medium-range again, only to bring it back with 3-4 days left... Seems like it, considering every other model is showing a storm for this time frame. The same also happened with the mid October nor'easter that the ECM/GGEM showed way before the GFS, and the Thanksgiving storm where the GFS had a mess of weak low pressures while the ECM was already consistently showing the GLC idea. It may take some time, but eventually the GFS should start showing this storm again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I think the key to getting the storm closer to the coast like the 12z Euro is showing is how soon the upper low closes off. If the upper low doesn't close off in time,the low will bomb out too far to the east.So it will be important to see how the Euro handles this in the future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 GFS just wont give in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 GFS has been consistent pretty much with the no storm theme now.... Either the GFS is on drugs or the other models are. I would pick the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 GFS....... does it with every frigging significant snowstorm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Barring last years persistent mega blocking and confluence, the GFS ALWAYS shows the SE bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Cannot get at all excited about model runs 5 to 8 days, especially during these Nina yrs. Last year, sure - put it in the books, but I suspect model runs will behave more like 2008 - 2008 with the south east ridge ever so slightly pushing each run furthur north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 NW Trend here we go again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Hello DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 GFS just wont give in. With this past weekend's cold wave it's important to note the GFS was locked with a similar solution for several runs and then caved around day 5 to a general idea the Euro had at day 7. Don't be surprised if the Euro caves to the GFS for a couple of runs before coming back with something close to what it has been showing for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Has anyone looked at the UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Has anyone looked at the UKMET? Haven't seen anything about it. Have you seen it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 FWIW, the 18z DGEX starts out like the GFS with no storm on Sunday, but then develops a storm near the Mid Atlantic coast on Monday night which looks like it would produce snow/mix from NYC into extreme southern SNE. It will probably change by its next run though, the DGEX sometimes has horrible accuracy in its longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 Has anyone looked at the UKMET? only stuff i have is out to 72 hrs. Psu e wall has it to hr 144 but its hard to decipher whats going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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