CooL Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Sounds like a classic event in the making... if the blocking is being modeled way too strong like most on this board believe is true, it could be something good. Remember the gfs has shown storms in its very long range, it usually loses the storm and brings it back around the 150-200 hr range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 GFS is consistent now with no threat in this time period ..as the 18 Z still has nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 GFS is consistent now with no threat in this time period ..as the 18 Z still has nothing... yeah i had a hard time watching that run unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 yeah i had a hard time watching that run unfold. Just a completely trainwreck of a run..really not even that cold compared to prior runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Just a completely trainwreck of a run..really not even that cold compared to prior runs.... yea that 514 thickness at hour 228 is nothing! i'll be out in shorts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 yea that 514 thickness at hour 228 is nothing! i'll be out in shorts... Go back to 252 hours on 00z last night and look at the extent of the below freezing temps and how far south they pushed and then compare to 228 hours. Granted its not the same time but its only 6 hrs apart.. Ever since the 12 Z GFS ..it has been slowly backing off the extreme coldness..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 GFS must be in that 'no storm' phase, it could bring it back on the 0z. The last two Euro runs were pretty encouraging nonetheless, even with the storm being suppressed, its showing a cold regime in the later period. This could get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Go back to 252 hours on 00z last night and look at the extent of the below freezing temps and how far south they pushed and then compare to 228 hours. Granted its not the same time but its only 6 hrs apart.. Ever since the 12 Z GFS ..it has been slowly backing off the extreme coldness..... i get what you're saying. and then that damn SE ride starts building in again by the end of the run. i wonder when i will finally realize that its a strong nina year and its just gonna suck... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 The GFS is just painful to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 GFS must be in that 'no storm' phase, it could bring it back on the 0z. The last two Euro runs were pretty encouraging nonetheless, even with the storm being suppressed, its showing a cold regime in the later period. This could get interesting. The GFS always overestimate the cold air. The GFS is just painful to look at It's funny because we get happy when the GFS shows something and then we get mad when it doesn't show anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 All the GFS action is with the ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 All the GFS action is with the ensemble members. A few real nice ones there, the mean looks better than the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 A few real nice ones there, the mean looks better than the OP Yeah,the mean looks closer to the OP Euro than the OP GFS today though with the understandable timing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Upton THEN UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH INTERACTION OF EASTWARD RACING PAC ENERGY AND PERSISTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE NE US. ULTIMATE EVOLUTION WILL DETERMINE TRACK OF RETROGRADING OFFSHORE LOWS AND POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 still no dec 5th storm on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 still no dec 5th storm on the gfs. It looks better, you can see the associated shortwaves trending faster, stronger, and farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 It looks better, you can see the associated shortwaves trending faster, stronger, and farther east. i wasn't looking at anything at h5, i was just merely going off surface representation. The later storm is gathering right now over plains at hr 183 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 i wasn't looking at anything at h5, i was just merely going off surface representation. The later storm is gathering right now over plains at hr 183 Looks juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 i wasn't looking at anything at h5, i was just merely going off surface representation. The later storm is gathering right now over plains at hr 183 Yeah, the energy in the southwest looks like it means business. This should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 blizzard on the gfs hr 216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 blizzard on the gfs hr 216 should say mecs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 followed by santas home cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 i wasn't looking at anything at h5, i was just merely going off surface representation. The later storm is gathering right now over plains at hr 183 look out hr 214 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 should say mecs where r u out to 216 already? im only at 180 on NCEp and 156 on e-wall.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 where r u out to 216 already? im only at 180 on NCEp and 156 on e-wall.... the site i get the euro through, runs the models a lot quicker, muahahahhhaa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 216 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F29%2F2010+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&areaDesc=North+America+-+US%2C+Canada%2C+and+northern+Mexico&fcast=11%2F29%2F2010+00UTC+216HR 228 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F29%2F2010+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&areaDesc=North+America+-+US%2C+Canada%2C+and+northern+Mexico&fcast=11%2F29%2F2010+00UTC+228HR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 D.C gets buried on the GFS. Looks like a beautiful storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 is it a must to see the euro tonight? for the dec 5th event or does it not hold as much merit as later on in the week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Verbatim looks like a 12/20/09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Verbatim looks like a 12/20/09 February 5th, 2010 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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