Nikolai Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 once the trof kicks east, a huge ridge develops out west. By day 9 and 10 the ridge is still there but a pos epo is ongoing with goa low D10 looks like a setup for major cold D10-15 with the possibility of a major event coming with all the energy left over in the SW US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 27, 2010 Author Share Posted November 27, 2010 D10 looks like a setup for major cold D10-15 with the possibility of a major event coming with all the energy left over in the SW US. yea, but i dont like how all that ridging out ahead of the system, The block is there but shifted east some. I wish it went post 240, cause i wonder if that system at day 10 could yield a 50/50 low... But yea their is a huge build up of cold air in canada, but thats in la la land right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 Would anyone say that the 12z ECMWF is a reasonable solution for this storm? I'm a little suspicious with how the GFS is handling this event, and the models are all over the place (like the GGEM which now looks like it has a GLC), so it looks like it will be difficult to get a clear idea of what this storm will do at least for the next few days, until the models start to reach a consensus with the general pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 Would anyone say that the 12z ECMWF is a reasonable solution for this storm? I'm a little suspicious with how the GFS is handling this event, and the models are all over the place (like the GGEM which now looks like it has a GLC), so it looks like it will be difficult to get a clear idea of what this storm will do at least for the next few days, until the models start to reach a consensus with the general pattern. Yeah atm the Euro looks more reasonable than alot of the models, especially the GFS. Granted, the Euro has not held a consistent solution run to run, so Im a bit wary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 Euro conitues to show a very blocked up pattern which offers potenial beginning next weekend and beyond into the week of the 6th.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 once the trof kicks east, a huge ridge develops out west. By day 9 and 10 the ridge is still there but a pos epo is ongoing with goa low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 27, 2010 Author Share Posted November 27, 2010 Euro conitues to show a very blocked up pattern which offers potenial beginning next weekend and beyond into the week of the 6th.. the euros block looks to much east based to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 gfs still offering basically the same solution. A retrograding low that fails to reach us and then possibly another storm riding up the coast, however, it gets suppressed and phases too late. Keep in mind all of this is in the 200-300 hr range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 Its amazing what a job the -NAO is doing towards making the pattern either normal or slightly below...if you look at the 18Z GFS at 500mb at 168 hours....just try and envision what that pattern would look like over the NE without the -NAO...probably something about like this.......... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1997/us0218.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 Its amazing what a job the -NAO is doing towards making the pattern either normal or slightly below...if you look at the 18Z GFS at 500mb at 168 hours....just try and envision what that pattern would look like over the NE without the -NAO...probably something about like this.......... http://www.meteo.psu...1997/us0218.php wow, ouch. w/o the nao we mine as well head right into spring.. Lets hope the -nao can hold up for most of the winter and try to get a few moderate snowstorms, as la nina isnt going away anytime fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 27, 2010 Author Share Posted November 27, 2010 18z gfs idiv ens runs out to 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 hr 210 sub 1004 low moving ene lgt precip lingering over ny pa dc balt, delmarva and southern pa Hey Tom, with light to moderate precip over the area for about 24 hours, can you give a guesstimate of total qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 Hey Tom, with light to moderate precip over the area for about 24 hours, can you give a guesstimate of total qpf? id say up in your area around .25, around the philly area its .25-.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 id say up in your area around .25, around the philly area its .25-.5 Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 dec 5th on 0z gfs is a no show. Probably another case of the gfs losing the storm then bringing it back later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 The storm after has a lot of potential, if things go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 dec 5th on 0z gfs is a no show. Probably another case of the gfs losing the storm then bringing it back later on. Has the GFS ever actually shown a storm for Dec 5? I feel like its just always shown that retrograding low and the clipper storm around that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 Has the GFS ever actually shown a storm for Dec 5? I feel like its just always shown that retrograding low and the clipper storm around that timeframe. no, its always been just a weak swfe i believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 no, its always been just a weak swfe i believe Yea that's what i thought. Ugh so annoying watching the 2nd wave just get completely crushed. So close to turning the corner, but happens just a little too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Has the GFS ever actually shown a storm for Dec 5? I feel like its just always shown that retrograding low and the clipper storm around that timeframe. Yes it has... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Yea that's what i thought. Ugh so annoying watching the 2nd wave just get completely crushed. So close to turning the corner, but happens just a little too late. Wouldn't worry about it. Storm chance is there - plus, how many times has the GFS suppressed storms? It's a little closer on this run than it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 Yea that's what i thought. Ugh so annoying watching the 2nd wave just get completely crushed. So close to turning the corner, but happens just a little too late. i wouldn't fret upon that, way out in space and also it seems like the models well especially the gfs over do the blocks and cold. Once we get closer it backs off. Just look at the thread tony and i are doing on the gfs verification on the thicknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 i wouldn't fret upon that, way out in space and also it seems like the models well especially the gfs over do the blocks and cold. Once we get closer it backs off. Just look at the thread tony and i are doing on the gfs verification on the thicknesses. Yea GFS always overdoes the cold so I would expect itto get closer. Anyways, I'd rather have the Euro showing the dec 5 threat right now than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 It also had showed this as well for the same time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 Yes it has... yea thats a swfe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 yea thats a swfe I would not consider either of those solutions however a weak solution..The second set got down to 968 mbs. That would have been a pretty intense system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 I would not consider either of those solutions however a weak solution..The second set got down to 968 mbs. That would have been a pretty intense system. well some swfe are weak some are storng, sometimes they spawn a coastal to. But all those events look to be swfe per gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Yes it has... I was actually talking about more recently, you know like when the Euro started picking up on it last night. Of course the GFS had those crazy solutions 360+ Hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 ggem jumped to the euro side with the dec 5th storm http://www.stanford.edu/~tenhoeve/weather/00zPrecipGLB.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 going off the ggme placement of lows, id say from i78 on north is probably looking good to seeing snow with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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