Scuddz Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I'd be much happier with this setup if it was coming through 3-4 hours earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Like Ellinwood, I wouldn't be surprised to see it come east. I'd say the DC area has about a 50/50 shot of being upgraded. FWIW the moderate (at closest approach) is right at 200 miles from DC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Who are your friends? Other freshman or any sophs in there? I might know some of them if that's the case. I'm the only freshman who even has the right gear to go out and chase effectively. My GF said she'd come with me. Kyle Elliot might go out (haven't talked to him yet) and i'm sure some juniors and seniors may go out with just iphone's and work it that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 I'm the only freshman who even has the right gear to go out and chase effectively. My GF said she'd come with me. Kyle Elliot might go out (haven't talked to him yet) and i'm sure some juniors and seniors may go out with just iphone's and work it that way. iPhone's lol. Good luck to them. Gotta have the 4G!!! Don't know Kyle Elliot...I was with the group that has Justin in it (you met me and him at the conference last summer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 don't say I never did nothin for ya I make no promises Are the chances for tornadoes better with a QLCS than the usual squall line? I assume when you have broken clusters of storms versus a long straight line of them, the possibility of rotation is better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 FWIW the moderate (at closest approach) is right at 200 miles from DC proper. For those who don't know, if you click this and check the SPC Day 1 outlook box at the bottom, you can see the outlook overlaid on the county map http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=pmsl&underlay=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 iPhone's lol. Good luck to them. Gotta have the 4G!!! Don't know Kyle Elliot...I was with the group that has Justin in it (you met me and him at the conference last summer). Yes, I remember. I don't know if justin is going out.. I haven't seen him in the WIC lately. Sad part is that I'm pretty sure none of the afformentioned people besides me even have GR3/GR2AE or even Spotter Network. Have to use phones like the ol' days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 if the nam holds from 18z i'd be more confident in us maybe getting mod risked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 if the nam holds from 18z i'd be more confident in us maybe getting mod risked Well we're going to find out here in like an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Currently thunderstorm with heavy rain...rates up to 3.24"/hr for brief moments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 flash flooding anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Fringed here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxLover Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 That sim. radar looks like a wave over central Md. Lots of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Yes, sorry I am late to the party, was at a baby shower all day in Germantown. So it looks like there is a chance for showesr in the morning, some clearing and then the show begins? I know previous runs had rain in the morning but that looks to have changed. Actually, the weather action really kicked in this past Friday afternoon as soon as you went into a meeting at work -- any chance you could arrange for that same setup again tomorrow afternoon? Might thereby expand the severe outlook in DC/Balt area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxLover Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 flash flooding anyone? My thoughts exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 we're due for a historic severe weather season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 we're due for a historic severe weather season Good enough for a mod risk tomorrow from Ian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 we're due for a historic severe weather season Is the 00z NAM giving you higher confidence in a mod? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --BY SUNRISE...SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD HALT NORTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...W/ A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM IT DOWN THE VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BRINGING SEVERAL POSSIBLE WEATHER THREATS TO THE MID ATLANTIC. MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT MAY BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE IN VELOCITY TO OVER 50 KT EAST OF APPALACHIANS...PROVIDING MORE THAN ADEQUATE SPEED SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE 70F BY AFTERNOON AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 50S...EVEN WITH MODEST SUNSHINE CAPE INDICES MAY EXCEED 500 J/KG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. INSTABILITY PEAKS AS THE CONVECTION CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND SPC HAS CONTINUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. JUST SW OF THE CWA...AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK HAS OCCURRED...CLOSER TO WHERE MODELS INDICATE A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ENHANCING LIFT AND SHEAR FURTHER. MAIN THREAT WITH CONVECTION WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH ISOLATED QLCS TORNADOGENESIS IS POSSIBLE...AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. SECONDARY THREATS IN REGARDS TO SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING ALSO PRESENT. AS DIURNAL MIXING INCREASES...PORTIONS OF LLJ COULD ME DRAWN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE POSSIBLE POST FROPA WHEN PRESSURE RISES AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY AIDE IN WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 KT REACHING THE SURFACE. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THE MOMENT...AS MAJORITY OF QPF RESIDES NORTH OF REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PWATS WILL SUPPORT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES IN CONVECTION...BUT THE REGION IS QUITE DRY AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE TRANSIENT IN NATURE. LOWEST FFG ARE ACROSS POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHERE HIGHEST QPF...1-1.5" IS EXPECTED. THUS THIS REACH HAS THE GREATEST RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. MAXIMA EVEN WITH MINIMAL SUNSHINE SHOULD APPROACH 60S TO MID 70S...AND RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE THREATENED AT LEAST AT KIAD...WHERE THE CURRENT RECORD FOR 28 FEB IS 70F. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Kaboom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Good enough for a mod risk tomorrow from Ian? dunno.. still borderline probably. we should get smacked up a bit either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Mod risk anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 gfs looks like some good rains too. both are undefined with the secondary wave but both seem to want to target the dc area with it.. the higher west to east band seems indicative of a warm-front like feature... yeah the "big one" is already north by that time. nam mos moving into the low 70s most of the area.. that prob means mid-70s for many. im not sure if spc will pull the trigger but recent guidance would seem to suggest we are in one of the better spots i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 0.77" of rain from the storms this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Just had a rumble of thunder here in the burg IAD detected lighting within 5-12 miles away as well METAR KIAD 280452Z 14004KT 10SM -RA SCT090 BKN120 09/03 A2994 RMK AO2 RAB33 SLP140 P0000 T00890033 401671011 Also looks like some decent storms around CBE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Frederick, MD METAR KFDK 280517Z AUTO 00000KT 5SM TSRA SCT045 BKN050 OVC100 09/04 A3001 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS P0001 METAR KJYO 280500Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM VCTSRA BKN080 OVC090 09/04 A2996 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SW THRU N METAR KCJR 280500Z AUTO 36003KT 10SM OVC095 09/06 A2994 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Just had a lightning and thunder, woke me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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