yoda Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 We are on the edge of the 30% as is so I'd think the moderate, if issued, might not cover us. MODERATE RISK ISSUED... but its to our W/SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 MODERATE RISK ISSUED... but its to our W/SW YOU BETTER CALL THEM AND HAVE THEM MOVE IT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I'll take it. Still expecting it to expand E in later outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I'll take it. Still expecting it to expand E in later outlooks. I'll take it as well. Moderate has quite a ways to jump to get to us. Do you realistically think there's a chance it shifts THAT much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 Thats the portion of the 1730 OTLK that i think applies to us SUBSEQUENT ADDITIONAL/BACKBUILDING TYPE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS/QUICKLY SPREADS EASTWARD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST STATES. IN ALL...A BROAD AREA OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW/STRONG SPEED SHEAR IS EXPECTED COINCIDENT WITH A SEASONALLY MOIST AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. FAST-MOVING/WELL-ORGANIZED QUASI-LINEAR/BOWING CONVECTION...IN ADDITION TO QUASI-DISCRETE OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS SOME TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 i'd move the mod risk east a bit overall. i think the western end of that will have trouble verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I'll take it as well. Moderate has quite a ways to jump to get to us. Do you realistically think there's a chance it shifts THAT much? I think it'll expand into central VA, probably stopping a little SW of Leesburg or just W of DC/RIC in the next update. Nowcasting tomorrow will determine just how far E it gets pushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Although....... Ellinwood, maybe you can confirm this but from what I've read, SPC outlooks are based on climo severe probs for a given day. So a 30% risk isn't equal on Feb as it is in June. Meaning, the chances of severe within 25 miles of a point are higher climo speaking in June so it's harder to get 30% with the same kind of storm. Comparatively, in February since it's quite rare, a similar storm could produce higher probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I think it'll expand into central VA, probably stopping a little SW of Leesburg or just W of DC/RIC in the next update. Nowcasting tomorrow will determine just how far E it gets pushed. Looking forward to the next SREF's. They've been pretty steadily increasing parameters save for a run here or there that cut back. I can't imagine they can increase much more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Looking forward to the next SREF's. They've been pretty steadily increasing parameters save for a run here or there that cut back. I can't imagine they can increase much more they've gotta factor in climo to some degree. i think the main diff between the mod risk area and here is timing.. theirs might be slightly better, but we're close to perfect on that level as well. the rare event where ellinwood and i are in lockstep... this could be a dangerous friendship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 FWIW -- http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/lwx_nmm12g/wrf.php?fld=wrf_reflectivity&hr=46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 they've gotta factor in climo to some degree. i think the main diff between the mod risk area and here is timing.. theirs might be slightly better, but we're close to perfect on that level as well. the rare event where ellinwood and i are in lockstep... this could be a dangerous friendship. I've been waiting all morning for the bickering to break out With you and Ellinwood in agreement we'll probably get wiped off the face of the Earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Very interesting to see a moderate at all in Feb, not all that common in the eastern parts of the states at this time of year. Going to have to get back into the swing of things in terms of severe weather again, this is a nice little reminder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Although....... Ellinwood, maybe you can confirm this but from what I've read, SPC outlooks are based on climo severe probs for a given day. So a 30% risk isn't equal on Feb as it is in June. Meaning, the chances of severe within 25 miles of a point are higher climo speaking in June so it's harder to get 30% with the same kind of storm. Comparatively, in February since it's quite rare, a similar storm could produce higher probs. That I couldn't tell you about either way, so I'm certainly glad that they're highlighting such a potentially significant event considering people may be caught unaware. If anything I would say that they're maybe quicker than they would be in the summer, but in the end they're going with a very reasonable outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Got off the phone with Jason... sounds like the chase is on. Preliminary target to the N and W of Richmond around the Lake Anna area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 12Z 4km NMM run shows awesomeness: http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/12/ EDIT: Maps are simulated reflectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 euro looks good -- nice spike of warmth .. shows 70+ to our west but that's likely 70+ across most of the area. looks like gametime starts a bit before 0z, drops a lot of qpf across the whole area -- everyone in this subforum 1"+ just about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 euro looks good -- nice spike of warmth .. shows 70+ to our west but that's likely 70+ across most of the area. looks like gametime starts a bit before 0z, drops a lot of qpf across the whole area -- everyone in this subforum 1"+ just about. Does 500 track look good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Impressive maps there Ellinwood, a nice linear feature looking at that forecast. Certainly looks like a good chance of severe storms, despite it being so very early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Does 500 track look good? dont have vorts on maps but it looks maybe a bit south of the nam. maybe in between the nam and the gfs? it actually takes a suface reflection south of us tho it's more an elongated low i guess across the area. i guess maybe we get hit then a bit of a wave goes up the front. definitely a good signal all around for a solid thump of rain. im still not that sure we'll get any massive severe here but it looks like we'll get some decent storms which is a plus for feb either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Is all discussion on this event in here now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Is all discussion on this event in here now? I would say so. Thanks Ian for the new thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 Is all discussion on this event in here now? yeah i think so. it would be easier that way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 0-6km shear is 60-70 kts after 3 pm tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 15z SREF's in a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 LWX zones as of 3pm already have the wording of "SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 Afternoon disco from LWX MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT MAY BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE IN VELOCITY TO OVER 50 KT EAST OF APPALACHIANS...PROVIDING MORE THAN ADEQUATE SPEED SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE 70F BY AFTERNOON AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 50S...EVEN WITH MODEST SUNSHINE CAPE INDICES MAY EXCEED 500 J/KG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. INSTABILITY PEAKS AS THE CONVECTION CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND SPC HAS CONTINUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. JUST SW OF THE CWA...AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK HAS OCCURRED...CLOSER TO WHERE MODELS INDICATE A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ENHANCING LIFT AND SHEAR FURTHER. MAIN THREAT WITH CONVECTION WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH ISOLATED QLCS TORNADOGENESIS IS POSSIBLE...AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 blam http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_ref_030m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 the secondary low is tricky.. the models are all over the place with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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