Wmsptwx Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Not buying this storm for PA...even Scranton etc. When all is said and done...I feel Upstate NY will be the winners or losers(snow this time of year... ) Only NAM onboard for snow this far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 Warm push is trying...up to 40.9°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Switching gears a bit, the thunderstorms in SW PA prompted me to have my first look at the SPC mesoanalysis map in quite awhile. And for late march, some parameters are pretty decent. Been several severe warnings further south but the ones in PA only marked with special weather statements, and it will likely stay that way. But i'm sure given some steep low/mid level lapses and cape over 500, there could be some decent gusts and some small hail. Cape (surface based) Low level lapse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Not buying this storm for PA...even Scranton etc. When all is said and done...I feel Upstate NY will be the winners or losers(snow this time of year... ) Only NAM onboard for snow this far south. Euro and GFS starts you as snow. You get about .3-.4 frozen on the latest GFS at the start, seems to be mainly frozen on the Euro. So there is more support than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Looks like a better shot of snow with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Looks like a better shot of snow with this storm. Yea thats been lurking on the GFS and the 12z Euro has it south enough to make it a southern half of PA special. I think for the folks below I-80 this may well end up being a better shot of being something interesting as the cold boundary settles even further south after the Wed storm. May be one to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Yea thats been lurking on the GFS and the 12z Euro has it south enough to make it a southern half of PA special. I think for the folks below I-80 this may well end up being a better shot of being something interesting as the cold boundary settles even further south after the Wed storm. May be one to watch. I am impressed with the potential over the next two weeks. Once to around April 10th, that should be it for the year, however. But before that, advisory snows/ice look likely from AOO north and northeastward tomorrow night and Wednesday. Some wintry mix could even back southwestward into JST as well. I'd be on the lookout for bad roads Wednesday morning from Tipton northward to Ridgway, then east/southeast. The weekend event should be south of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I am impressed with the potential over the next two weeks. Once to around April 10th, that should be it for the year, however. But before that, advisory snows/ice look likely from AOO north and northeastward tomorrow night and Wednesday. Some wintry mix could even back southwestward into JST as well. I'd be on the lookout for bad roads Wednesday morning from Tipton northward to Ridgway, then east/southeast. The weekend event should be south of I-80. Wondered where you have been? Thanks for the update! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 0z Nam looks pretty cold with the Wed. storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 0z Nam looks pretty cold with the Wed. storm Latest in-house model prints out more than 10" just north of IPT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 WOW...thanks for the update JST...so are you thinking advisory snows up here? It seems we might see 2 to 5 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Latest in-house model prints out more than 10" just north of IPT I will take it haha. The storm the other day brought me .3" of snow and sleet before the change over to rain. I love winter so bring on a foot of snow and no warmth until mid april Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 0z GFS still the warmest...turns everyone over to rain by hr42-45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Due to the fact I don't really want snow, I'll side with the GFS. It seems to be in agreement with the EUro, GGEM. NAM looks whacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 GFS has snow storms this Saturday and next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 how can the nam and gfs be so far apart on thermals within 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 CMC http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Nam still bullish on the cold. 0.93 Qpf GFS still says rain. 0.64 Qpf For IPT Edit: I like reading NWS forecast discussion. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Oye...WSW's issued for northern sections and even as far south as Berks County. MCKEAN-POTTER-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING- SULLIVAN-COLUMBIA-SCHUYLKILL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRADFORD...COUDERSPORT...EMPORIUM... RENOVO...MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO...LAPORTE...BLOOMSBURG...BERWICK... POTTSVILLE 351 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. * LOCATION...THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND POCONOS. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW AND SLEET...MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...OVER 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND ONE QUARTER INCH OF FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE IN COUDERSPORT...MANSFIELD AND LAPORTE. * TIMING...SNOW AND SLEET WILL BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING. THE MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TURN BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING. * WINDS...NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS...AND A HEAVY COATING OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE ON TREES AND POWER LINES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 GFS has been consistent...and if it's right no one will see much of anything. Not sure I'm buying what this storm is selling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Nam has me getting 2.2" for the 23rd/24Th Starts as rain, goes to snow, then back to rain, then snow.........Like a roller coaster at Hershey park . The gfs for the same time frame is rain..however, next week the gfs has me at 1.8" snow and nam rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Not a bad hit for some people...PSUHazetonWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 WOW...thanks for the update JST...so are you thinking advisory snows up here? It seems we might see 2 to 5 or so. I would say 3 to 5", more to your north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I will take it haha. The storm the other day brought me .3" of snow and sleet before the change over to rain. I love winter so bring on a foot of snow and no warmth until mid april I wouldn't be shocked to see you approach 8" with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 WINTER STORM WATCH AWXC PA UNIT 10:20 AM TUE MAR 22 2011 ...THE PENNSYLVANIA UNIT OF ANALYSTWXCAST HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... ...BRADFORD, CARBON, COLUMBIA, LACKAWANNA, LUZERNE, LYCOMING, MONROE, NORTHHAMPTON, PIKE, POTTER, SULLIVAN, SUSQUEHANNA, TIOGA, WAYNE, & WYOMING... ...IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL 1 AM THURSDAY... A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS COMBINED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL FILTER IN COLD ENOUGH AIR FOR SNOW TO BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE. AMOUNTS MAY REACH OR EXCEED 6 INCHES OVER THE WATCH AREA. THE SNOW WILL BE VERY HEAVY IN WEIGHT WITH LOW LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS SO DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I think some places in NE Pa will see several inches of snow from this, but where is the cutoff gonna end up sw of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I wouldn't be shocked to see you approach 8" with this one. What's your thinking around UNV? That's a toughie, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I think some places in NE Pa will see several inches of snow from this, but where is the cutoff gonna end up sw of there. Good thing the NAM is come to a consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 What's your thinking around UNV? That's a toughie, IMO. Looked like mostly rain to me (unless the NAM verifies verbatim), but since I'm leaving for there now, probably closer to 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Looked like mostly rain to me, but since I'm leaving for there now, probably closer to 6" Looks like the NAM is more bullish on the second part as far as snow now. People here are either asking me how bad it will be or in complete denial that we are entering a cold period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Looks like the NAM is more bullish on the second part as far as snow now. People here are either asking me how bad it will be or in complete denial that we are entering a cold period. Jamie Just tell them spring is here. What would be the chance of snow and cold weather. Adam Nice of you to help Jamie with his snow totals Now to see if it materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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