buckeye Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I thought while it's fresh in our minds we post the things models busted with and nailed regarding this storm, especially inside 72 hours. Might make a nice litte reference for future hits. For mby....central OH. I noticed the following models inside 48 hrs did NOT correctly pick up the strength of the low level cold air.....rgem and euro. Neither had the cmh icestorm. JMA was too far southeast with the track at 72... as was, i think, the ggem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 RGEM did pretty well with the strength/track but it was too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 NAM did terrible down here. Absolutely terrible. Even 24 hours out.. terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 RGEM did pretty well with the strength/track but it was too warm. RUC, amirite? No but seriously, it seems the short range models did a good job. The thermals may have been off some, but they captured the strength and SLP location pretty well. Overall, it seems the Euro was the best from 5 days in, despite its warm bias with 2m temps. Lesson learned there, but I believe Wes Junker said it tends to be a little too warm at the surface and 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 GFS did very good up here even a few days out... Euro I think was too wet this far north. The GFS wxcaster clown maps did very well on this storm, at least in the Chicago/MKE area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The NAM/GFS clown maps were atrocious here, but we were near the edge which makes it even more dangerous than usual to buy them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The NAM/GFS clown maps were atrocious here, but we were near the edge which makes it even more dangerous than usual to buy them. That's why they're clown maps. They were only off by what, like 9-10 inches or so of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The NAM/GFS clown maps were atrocious here, but we were near the edge which makes it even more dangerous than usual to buy them. Clown maps failed some here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 That's why they're clown maps. They were only off by what, like 9-10 inches or so of snow? Yeah. Various runs had us in the 18+ until they backed off late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Clown maps came true here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 That's why they're clown maps. They were only off by what, like 9-10 inches or so of snow? Can anyone fill me in on why these maps aren't worth anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Once the idea of a 30" bomb faded the models (NAM, GFS, EURO, GGEM, RGEM) seemed to center on around 16 - 20" here and we ended up in the 16 - 18" range. Overall pretty good, but I know SE of here the dryslot developed and that wasn't forecasted until very late in the game. I believe it was under 24 hours and maybe under 12 before this became apparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 imby: they all sucked. HRRR/RUC did the best at forecasting the massive scope and extent of the dryslot but even they were much too wet with the initial batch of WCB precip ahead of it. Like the globals, they plopped down 0.75". Ended up with 0.40" swe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I think the models did alright here. In fact, I was impressed with the way the Euro picked up the storm last Wednesday night and held the storm all the way through. I will admit I was waiting for the rug to be pulled out from under us, so to speak, by an "11th hour" shift in some element that would have swung the storm east, away from us, greatly lowering our totals, or weakening the storm severely. Once we got inside 72 hours, I was convinced and was prepping for the big blast. I have never seen the a storm get latched onto like that, and not let go. Usually there is plenty of waffling until we get inside the 48-72 hour window for most of the models, but this thing was progged for this region from a week out almost. Through this whole thing, I think I learned a little bit more about upper air dynamics, and a few other things that will help with understanding things in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The HRRR did a great job with this thing in the short range as did the long range RUC starting monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I told my parents in Toledo last Wednesday (6 days before the storm) saying the Euro had a perfect Texas to Toledo snowstorm track. I also said the GFS had almost nothing for precipitation or low pressure development. The Euro almost had it right, although it did have some inconsistency, if I remember correctly. Toledo got 6" of snow and everything but the kitchen sink. North of Detroit got 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The HRRR did a great job with this thing in the short range as did the long range RUC starting monday night. Yeah hi-res did well short range and the Euro was startling accurate 100+hrs out aside from a blip run or two. GFS was way off pretty far out and slowly trended in the right direction but never fully caught on but by that time the hi-res were nailing things. GGEM suck and i could care less what the JMA, Korean or Cambodian did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 imby: they all sucked. HRRR/RUC did the best at forecasting the massive scope and extent of the dryslot but even they were much too wet with the initial batch of WCB precip ahead of it. Like the globals, they plopped down 0.75". Ended up with 0.40" swe. Nothing captured the extent of the dryslot and positioning of the deformation band here. Pretty sad failure of cutting edge technology. What looked like an epic storm here became less than run of the mill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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