Isotherm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Strong sfc high pressure in the classic "banana" shape from the Plains to SE Canada has me worried that we could be looking at a prolonged, potentially damaging ice storm for parts of the area. The synoptics are not favorable for snow along the I-95 corridor, but with winds NELY at the sfc via HP, and those winds traversing a cold, 1-3ft snowpack across New England and NJ, will make it extremely difficult to break 32F virtually everywhere in the tristate through Wednesday afternoon (save for maybe the immediate coast line). Tuesday looks to feature some front-running light accumulating snow/sleet, but the bulk of the precipitation from the event could fall as freezing rain --> the dangerous part. The last thing we need is a crippling ice storm, and to be honest, some of the skew-T's I've seen look pretty scary. 850's well into the +3 to +5c range but surface temps in the mid-upper 20s on a NE flow. There's been a definite correction NW in storm track over the past few days, but there's also been a correction in the coverage and intensity of surface high pressure across sern Canada, now depicted to be around 1030-35mb. If that's the case, I'm telling you right now, a very small percentage of this storm will be rain, even for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow the watch has up to 6" of snow possible as the top amount and 3/4 of an inch of ice as the top amount. If amounts were to get that high, we would see major disruptions. at the end they say the top end of 6" snow and .75 ice is below average confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 21z SREFs came in much colder than 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 http://www.erh.noaa....totalprecip.php Just a re-post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 21z SREFs came in much colder than 15z. How much colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 total precip amounts will range from 1.00 to 2.00 inches for a large area, with some areas potentially receiving an ice accretion of one inch. let's hope that the 00z models give us a bit more clarity, even though the trends are becoming more apparent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 rest of NJ also 402 WWUS41 KPHI 310135 WSWPHI URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 835 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 ...A LARGE WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST USA... SNOW TUESDAY MORNING WILL TURN TO RAIN SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN RESUME AS HEAVY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE WEDNESDAY. DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ013-014-016>020-026-027-PAZ067-070-071-310945- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0004.110201T0400Z-110202T1600Z/ NEW CASTLE-CECIL-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM- GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...FREEHOLD... SANDY HOOK...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL... MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...LONG BEACH ISLAND... WHARTON STATE FOREST...WEST CHESTER...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 835 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. * GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE: EXTREME NORTHEAST MARYLAND...SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EAST COASTAL NEW JERSEY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW TUESDAY MORNING CHANGES TO SLEET...RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN TO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS: 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET... THEN POSSIBLY A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF GLAZE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. * TIMING: SNOW BEGINS BETWEEN 9 PM MONDAY AND 2 AM TUESDAY. MIXED WINTRY ELEMENTS DEVELOP BETWEEN 10 AM AND 4 PM TUESDAY. * IMPACTS: THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS LIKELY TO BE HAZARDOUS. ALL UNTREATED PAVEMENTS SHOULD BE SNOW COVERED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE SHOULD BE ADVERSELY IMPACTED WITH EITHER PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN OR HEAVY FREEZING RAIN. * CONFIDENCE; ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SNOW EARLY TUESDAY THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNTS REACHING 3 OR 4 INCHES IS BELOW AVERAGE. CONFIDENCE ON SOME GLAZING LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY IS ABOVE AVERAGE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 21z SREF's are nothing too overly exciting..but are definitely rather cold at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 total precip amounts will range from 1.00 to 2.00 inches for a large area, with some areas potentially receiving an ice accretion of one inch. let's hope that the 00z models give us a bit more clarity, even though the trends are becoming more apparent... do you see it getting to a point with the tredns of more snow or just more frozen precip ex. freezing rain, sleet and other icey projectiles falling from the sky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like the trend is our friend, definitely not a blizzard with 12 inches plus for NYC/LI...No way...but up to 6 inches followed by extensive frozen precip with minimal plain rain, yes, more and more likely. Very exciting, we keep our snowpack encapsulated ready for next weekend's blast. Exciting but realistically dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 do you see it getting to a point with the tredns of more snow or just more frozen precip ex. freezing rain, sleet and other icey projectiles falling from the sky? depends on the area, but most people in and around NYC will likely go over to at least sleet and freezing rain. with the current low track, there would be too much warming aloft to allow for it to stay all/mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Gotta love the NWS watch/warning map.. winter storm watches and warnings from the Canadian border to the Mexican border from the Rockies east to the Atlantic Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njblizzard Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Strong sfc high pressure in the classic "banana" shape from the Plains to SE Canada has me worried that we could be looking at a prolonged, potentially damaging ice storm for parts of the area. The synoptics are not favorable for snow along the I-95 corridor, but with winds NELY at the sfc via HP, and those winds traversing a cold, 1-3ft snowpack across New England and NJ, will make it extremely difficult to break 32F virtually everywhere in the tristate through Wednesday afternoon (save for maybe the immediate coast line). Tuesday looks to feature some front-running light accumulating snow/sleet, but the bulk of the precipitation from the event could fall as freezing rain --> the dangerous part. The last thing we need is a crippling ice storm, and to be honest, some of the skew-T's I've seen look pretty scary. 850's well into the +3 to +5c range but surface temps in the mid-upper 20s on a NE flow. There's been a definite correction NW in storm track over the past few days, but there's also been a correction in the coverage and intensity of surface high pressure across sern Canada, now depicted to be around 1030-35mb. If that's the case, I'm telling you right now, a very small percentage of this storm will be rain, even for NYC. good points storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'd just like to know what the range for snow is for NYC/LI...I figure 6 is max.....can it be more let's say 6-8? Also what's the least 1-3? So far out of the most recent guidance, the 18z NAM run was the coldest and had upto 8 inches for NYC. Most other guidance is less than 6 and closer to 2 - 4 before mixing and changeover to rain. Lets see what the 00z nam has to offer. I hadnt looked at the SREF yet but judging by eathlites post it seems to be more of a frz rain threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM looks ok so far, energy is shifted a bit east and weaker.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Honestly the range at thi point is anything from 0 to 10 inches if not more. No way to know for sure what changes are in store if any. Whatever happens I just hope we trend away from ice....I don't wish that upon anyone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 why are people asking about accumulation forecasts right now.. no one knows yet for sure stop asking and let the 00z models finish so we can figure it out.. like someone said anything from 0-12" tuesday now stop asking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Honestly I hope ice storm warnings fly where warranted and not just winter storm blanket warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 wow how many times has there been a high >1060mb in the us?? look at that bad boy near montana.. this really is going to be a major blizzard for someone in the midwest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Honestly I hope ice storm warnings fly where warranted and not just winter storm blanket warnings May see Winter Storm Warnings/Winter Weather Advisories for Tuesday, followed by either Winter Storm or Ice Storm Watches for Wednesday...not sure how the NWS will handle it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Southeast radar looks far more impressive than either the 18z or 00z NAM had for tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Trend cancelled on this run looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM is quite warm and amplified this run, NYC doesn't even see much snow with the first overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 are the current models showing possible ice accumulations that would make for dangerous commutes Wednesday morning in coastal areas in NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 surface looks just as cold through 48 as the 18z had at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah. I don't know what people are saying. 850's are warmer but definitely not surface. yeah. i think most people are looking at the 850's, which a tad warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Surface still solidly below freezing at hour 54. Line is in ocean off LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 first wave is a big sleet storm with very little snow. Warm layers at 800, 825, and 850 even up to HPN. NYC's last snow sounding is hour 39, after that, its sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 quick peek at the 21z ETA shows the 0C line at 850 never gets north of a line from the PA/NY border, to CT/MA border. mostly snow north of that, icing south. will see how WRF-NMM finishes up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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