sferic Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well, it looks slightly better than 12 hour ago overall for KNYC I'll take my 2-4 inches and then sacrifice my 2-4 inches and call it square....hopefully. Eternal snow optimist what I am, even I realize this isn't what we are use to or would like it to be, but not a catosphre either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 At 60 hrs. the soundings that I have for NYC on the GFS are -4.1 at the surface, -1.0 at 850 and the warmest layer I have access to shows -.7 at 950mb. yea i have the same, but the warmest layer i have is 925 or in that region which is above 0, so its prob sleet or snow sleet mix depending on how far above it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So...when do the watches go up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Oh, I see. Ok then. I responded to algreek3's post about 850's being near 0C in Southern New Jersey. The sounding I linked was for KMIV, not NYC. Not to soapbox again, but this is an example of why it's very difficult to lump PHL and NYC into the same subforum--there's a ton of variability there. While you may be getting SN/IP, I'll be down here getting RN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 PT/WXoutlooks (http://wxoutlooks.blogspot.com/) just updated a minute ago (can't discern what's different from his 10:50AM update)...Still 5 stars for tuesday and 3 stars for Wednesday, just like to hear his logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 nice little thump in the cmc from 45 hours through 58 hours for nyc. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yes, and it probably will until the first week in March. That is almost always when the patterns like these break down. This is exactly what happened in the winter of 1993-1994. The pattern also broke last year in the first week of March. After the major snowfall in mid February last year that was pretty much all she wrote for my area. Then in early March we got the noreaster with all the heavy rain and that combined with all snow melt left up in the upper portions of the river basins caused the worst flooding since 84. If the EC weeklies are correct in pumping up the SE ridge most of the storms will track to our west and we will be under the gun for lots of heavy rain if the southern stream remains as active as its been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I've got a flight out of ABE at 6AM Tuesday heading to Chicago then returning to ABE later that night (10PM). Am I in trouble? American Airlines?? Good luck, that flight never takes off on time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 As for the south shore of Nassau County is the latest NAM and trends indicating an all out sleet and ice storm with .75-1.25" ZR glazing. We have all the ingredients for maybe one of the worse Long Island ice storms in decades. This look right on line with 28-29F temps on Wednesday with rain, and 850's around 42-45F. Long Islanders will be talking about this event like the 1/1994 ice storm. Trends are very unsettling to me. Looks to repeat 1/1994 in my eyes. I personally would take the 15-20 inches that north of us get. Ice is scary. Looks like a snow to sleet event on Tuesday. A lull, and then the 8-10 hour heavy ice storm on Wednesday. I really do not want this, but the surface temps are trending just below freezing with 1030 mb high extension over Quebec from the super 1050 mb high over the Great Plains. Not happy with Long Island's fate with IP and ZR nightmare prospects. Comments welcomed. It's very, very difficult to get an icestorm here the way the NW suburbs do. We probably run the whole gamut of precip types here, but I doubt we get the crippling freezing rain that others could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 American Airlines?? Good luck, that flight never takes off on time. I am supposed to be driving from Newark, DE down to Baltimore then West on I-70 to Hagerstown, MD on Tuesday night. I am not liking this...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Man Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 DT really indicating on his facebook page that this is not going to be an East Coast period through 2/10 or 2/15 or so...generally hyping all the events for the MW, including the one on the the 5th also being inland of where its shown now. This guy was a hyping an east coast/mid atlantic snow storm a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This guy was a hyping an east coast/mid atlantic snow storm a few days ago. I could see how he's right though. SE Ridge patterns are seldomly good for us, and result in cutter after cutter most times. Very typical Nina gradient pattern that blasts New England and definitely the Midwest. We need that west based -NAO to return, pronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 DT got one thing right recently, and that was that most of the areas N and W of the big cities were in for a warning criteria snowfall event last week when some guidance was barely showing them getting even an advisory type event. He is just one opinion out of many and sounds like he is riding the unfavorable NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The Canadian agrees on some decent snows for us prior to the changeover late on Tuesday. Bottom righ panel dashed line usually is a good indicator of rain/snow line and fro 60 - 84 it seems to be north of i-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I don't get why DT feels so confident about his calls for February. I'm not saying he will be right or wrong but making storm calls this far out is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 DT got one thing right recently, and that was that most of the areas N and W of the big cities were in for a warning criteria snowfall event last week when some guidance was barely showing them getting even an advisory type event. He is just one opinion out of many and sounds like he is riding the unfavorable NAO. It's easy to say things will be unfavorable due to the NAO. Just like it was easy for most of the METS to say this winter will not be cold and snowy due to the strong Nina. There's a lot more that goes into a pattern that taking the easy way out. Relying on Climo all the time can get you burned, just like with our last snowstorm which was supposed to be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Euro anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Euro anyone? Tuesday AM thump then it bumps everyone over 32 pretty quick except if you're north of NYC or in the Poconos. It's the warmest of the guidance and warmer than 0z aloft/surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Tuesday AM thump then it bumps everyone over 32 pretty quick except if you're north of NYC or in the Poconos. It's the warmest of the guidance and warmer than 0z aloft/surface. How much of a front end thump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 lol I don't know about the "BLIZZARD" part, but in our region the lines look alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 who thinks these are a few degrees too warm ??? what makes me suspicious is the 34 in northeast PA And where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Euro warm bias is here as in every storm this year, that's one thing consistent about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 How much of a front end thump? 2-4 ish...some of that looks like freezing rain down by Philly at the end of the thump though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think that's a very good call at this time. Looks like it weighted the GFS more heavily than the NAM which extends the 6-12" amounts well into NJ. I haven't seen too much mention of the snowpack here. Nearly 30" of snow on the ground I would have to think helps hold temps down 2-3 degrees below guidance. If that's the case, those forecasted highs of 33-35 north and west of the cities is in trouble. I'm happy the interior is finaly getting their snows. Hopefully the getting shafted talks will come to an end and when the next coastal threat develops the trolling stops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 60 hours out is 7pm on Tuesday, so anything that falls in NYC prior to then would be snow. Seems the consensus is in that this is not a major snowstorm for NNJ/NYC. I think we can put that thought to rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I wouldn't expect the Euro or other global models to catch onto the low level entrenched cold air / CAD as fast as the higher resolution models (NAM). That's the way it always is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 lol I don't know about the "BLIZZARD" part, but in our region the lines look alright. Well, the NWS in Chicago has a "Blizzard Watch" in effect now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I wouldn't expect the Euro or other global models to catch onto the low level entrenched cold air / CAD as fast as the higher resolution models (NAM). That's the way it always is. The Euro has a very high resolution, but it also has a warm bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well, the NWS in Chicago has a "Blizzard Watch" in effect now. There will be blizzard conditions in some areas I'm sure, but not as widespread as henry's swath. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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